Research Articles (Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/1745

This collection contains some of the full text peer-reviewed/ refereed articles published by researchers from the Department of Agricultural Economics Extension and Rural Development

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Quantifying risk in the South African Customs Union
(Routledge, 2025) Mlipha, S.S.B.; Kalaba, Mmatlou W.
Most of the risk literature provides evidence on the impact of individual risk events on trade from the perspective of North–North (N–N) and North–South (N–S) regional trade blocs. Given the numerous risks facing South–South (S–S) regional trade agreements (RTAs), there is a need for a framework that will identify and quantify the risk in an S–S trade bloc. Such a framework should present a more holistic approach to risk identification, assessment, and management. The analysis has to explore interdependencies and spill-over effects between events that initiate impact flows between otherwise unrelated events. The Southern African Customs Union (SACU), with a good mixture of lower- and upper-middle-income countries, was used as a case study in this paper. The more developed countries, i.e. South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia, had the least risk and the risk indices of the more developed countries in the bloc also show a downward trend over time.
Multi-stakeholder collaboration framework for post-harvest loss reduction : the case of tomato value chain in Iringa and Morogoro regional in Tanzania
(SpringerOpen, 2025-02) Izdori, Fides John; Mkwambisi, David; Karuaihe, Selma Tuemumunu; Papargyropoulou, Effie
Globally, one-third of the food produced for human consumption globally is wasted, a figure projected to rise with increased food production. Collaborative efforts across food supply chains can mitigate post-harvest losses, playing a crucial role in enhancing food security. However, frameworks for multi-stakeholder collaborations remain underdeveloped, particularly in developing countries. We address this gap by focusing on the case study of tomato food supply chain in Tanzania. Using value chain analysis with farmers, traders, and transporters in the Iringa and Morogoro regions, findings reveal that 28% of post-harvest losses stem from climate and weather conditions, followed by limited market knowledge (12.5%) and inadequate storage facilities (11%). The results further show that only a small proportion of the tomato is transported to the market due to bad roads and there is limited number of processing industries, exacerbating the issue. Farmers have no knowledge as to how much they will produce or where they will sell in the next season. Building on these findings, the study revises Bhattacharya and Fayezi’s (Ind Mark Manag 93: 328–343, 2021) framework to propose a tailored multi-stakeholder collaboration framework for the Tanzania food supply chain context. This framework aims to empower smallholder farmers to reduce losses and increase incomes while fostering sustainable collaborations applicable to other value chains and regions.
Protecting everyday nature
(Oxford University Press, 2024-08) Layard, Antonia; Marshall, Adam; De Vito, Laura; Few, Roger; Hatzisavvidou, Sophia; Mabon, Leslie; Selomane, Odirilwe
‘Everyday nature’, understood as people’s ability to access nature nearby, should be protected in law and planning policy, facilitating three key benefits: (1) human health and wellbeing; (2) intrinsic and extrinsic ecological advantages; and (3) supporting the UK’s 30by30 nature conservation commitment. Yet there are three obstacles to the protection of everyday nature: (1) the prioritisation of ‘special’ and ‘priority’ nature conservation habitats; (2) the lack of protection for Local Wildlife Sites; as well as (3) counter-intuitively, the rise of biodiversity as a preferred governing concept. Addressing these obstacles, the paper develops the concept of everyday nature, making four proposals for change: (1) improved conceptual analysis; (2) confirming current policy on Local Wildlife Sites; (3) implementing the concept of everyday nature in legislation and planning policy; and (4) implementing the Government’s target that everyone lives within a 15-minute walk from a green or blue space.
Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system
(Elsevier, 2025-02) Issifu, Ibrahim; Dahmouni, Ilyass; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid
Plastic's incredible versatility drives its continuous production growth, contributing to 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With an unsustainable 4% annual production growth rate, plastics' environmental impact is significant. Our study, using climate and economic models, assesses the effects of a voluntary plastic levy imposed on the top 100 resin producers. The results suggest a potential 70% reduction in global plastic production emissions by 2050, lowering emissions from business–as–usual levels to 1.62 Gt CO2e. The proposed USD 82.5 billion levy over 25 years could fund recycling initiatives, increasing recycling rates by 73%. To align with the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, plastic production growth would need to drop to approximately 2.9%–3.1% annually, achieving a 25% decrease by 2050. Implementing this levy could significantly enhance recycling and reduce emissions, mitigating climate change.
The role of contract farming on household food security in Kenya and Madagascar
(EL-AYACHI, 2024-05) Fitawek, Wegayehu; Hendriks, Sheryl L.; wegayehu.fitawek@up.ac.za
CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND: Contract farming has been promoted as a more 'inclusive business model' in which local smallholder farmers can participate in and benefit from the wider benefits of investments in rural areas such as infrastructure development (power supply, roads, water supply), spillovers from increased incomes and, in some cases, mandatory development of education and health facilities. Contract farming models could have a positive impact on agricultural development and innovation in developing countries. Contract farming creates a system that links smallholder farmers with domestic and international buyers. Contract farming could secure existing local land rights of smallholder farmers by continuing farming on their land, promoting investments by investors and fostering the commercialization of smallholder farmers. Contract farming could enhance local food security. However, contract farming models do not always have a positive impact. Sometimes contractors make a profit without supporting or, sometimes, exploiting contracted smallholders. GOAL AND OBJECTIVES: The primary focus of this paper is to analyze the impact of contract farming on household food security. The paper will address the following research questions: What are the determinant factors that affect participation in contract farming? and What is the impact of contract farming on household food security in Kenya and Madagascar? METHODOLOGY: This study used three internationally recognized food security indicators to measure the food security status of the household: household dietary diversity score (HDDS), food consumption score (FCS) and the months of adequate household food provisioning (MAHFP). This study used an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to estimate the impact of contract farming on household food security. The research is purely empirical research is based on observation and measurement of phenomena, as directly experienced by the researcher RESULTS: AI can be effectively applied by Informal Cross-Border Traders (ICBT) to enhance their businesses and enhance competitiveness. There are several AI applications accessible to ICBT within their operational context. Although the adoption and utilization of AI in Africa are still in their infancy, there is considerable promise for the future. Africans must address the challenges hindering the adoption and utilization of AI, as technology is advancing rapidly, and opportunities await those who embrace it.
Ethiopia's land certification program : effect on soil conservation investment by rural and peri-urban farmers
(EL-AYACHI, 2024-09) Tesfay, Hailay; Machethe, Charles Lepepeule; charles.machethe@up.ac.za
CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, farmers do not have individual property rights to the land they occupy and cultivate since the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) constitution clearly states that land belongs to the state and the peoples of Ethiopia. To address concerns about the insecure tenure of farmers that could result from the absence of enduring private ownership of land, to eliminate land disputes, to promote sustainable use of land resources, and to support long-term land-related investments, such as soil conservation measures, the Ethiopian government introduced a land registration and certification program in 1998. In addition, cities and towns are also rapidly expanding horizontally, encroaching on fertile agricultural land, which could reverse the land tenure security expected from the land certification program. GOAL AND OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the effect of Ethiopia's land certification program on the soil conservation practices of rural and peri-urban farming households in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. METHODOLOGY: The study employs descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model to empirically assess the effect of the Ethiopian land certification program on investment in soil conservation practices. RESULTS: The study found that 54.59%, said they conserved their plots, while the remaining 45.41% had not engaged in soil conservation practices. Conversely, 60.11% of the certified peri-urban respondents stated they did not conserve their plots. The logit model’s marginal effects indicated that the influence of the Ethiopian land certification program on the probability of soil conservation depended on the geographic location of the farmers. Specifically, rural program participants were more likely to engage in soil conservation practices.
Obligations of agricultural economists in South Africa’s policy formulation
(Taylor and Francis, 2024) Ntombela, Sifiso M.
The address aims to add value and strengthen the understanding of what an agricultural economist is and what the obligations of an agricultural economist are in a public policy formulation process. In response to these questions, the address explores the policy evolution in agriculture and assesses the performance of the sector over the first three decades of democracy in South Africa. In the reviews undertaken, the influence of agricultural economists in shaping and formulation of policies was investigated to reflect on whether agricultural economists have executed their role effectively. The obligations of agricultural economists in ensuring that the country promulgates and implements the appropriate sectoral policies are emphasized in the address by outlining the good, the bad and the ugly developments that have been observed in the past 30 years. The address shows that agricultural economists have been instrumental in building a reformed, competitive and sustainable agricultural sector in South Africa, however, the changing political, economic and social landscapes demand them to be agile and adaptive to these new realities.
Disponibilite en eau et orientation des agriculteurs : facteurs d’adoption de pratiques ecologiquement intensives dans les oasis de Kebili en Tunisie
(EDP Sciences, 2024-04) Mansour, Nada Ben; Hanafi, Anissa; Faysse, Nicolas; Jourdain, Damien
Dans le gouvernorat de Kébili au sud de la Tunisie, les zones irriguées se sont fortement développées ces 30 dernières années. Le système oasien traditionnel, fondé sur des cultures organisées sur trois étages et sur les complémentarités entre agriculture et élevage, a été fragilisé. De nombreux agriculteurs se sont limités à la production de dattes, à la fois dans les oasis traditionnelles et dans les nouvelles zones irriguées. Le présent article mesure l’influence de la disponibilité en eau et de différents facteurs relatifs aux orientations des agriculteurs, sur leur décision de mettre en oeuvre des pratiques agricoles écologiquement intensives. Les principales pratiques étudiées sont la culture d’arbres fruitiers sous les palmiers et l’utilisation du fumier comme fertilisant. Cinquante agriculteurs, qui ont obtenu au début des années 2000 la gestion de terres agricoles dans lamunicipalité de Jemna, ont été interrogés. La disponibilité en eau est un facteurmajeur facilitant les pratiques écologiquement intensives. Ces pratiques sont aussi favorisées par le fait que le revenu familial soit avant tout tiré de la parcelle dans la zone d’étude.Un autre facteur important est l’intérêt pourune gestion durable de l’exploitation agricole – au contraire d’unegestion visantunerentabilité à court terme. Des agriculteurs de Kébili, qui veulent faire de l’agriculture un projet économique et un projet de vie, sont ainsi prêts àmettre enoeuvre des pratiques écologiquement intensives. La baisse de l’agrobiodiversité observéedans les oasis traditionnellesduSudtunisienn’est pas inéluctable, si l’accès à l’eau estamélioré et si de tels projets de vie fondés sur l’agriculture sont plus aisément réalisables.
The optimal combination of pastoral activities and wildlife conservation in the Serengeti ecosystem
(Wiley, 2024-05) Kibira, Gerald; Muchapondwa, Edwin; Ntuli, Herbert
There is competition for land between Maasai pastoralists and the park agency in the Serengeti ecosystem. The park agency wants to use the land for wildlife conservation while the pastoralist community wants to use it for livestock grazing. Predatory wildlife kills livestock while herbivorous wildlife competes with livestock for water and grazing. In retaliation, the Maasai hunt predators and grazers to protect their livestock and also to supply the black market for wildlife products. With both the Maasai and animal populations growing, increased conflicts are inevitable. This paper develops a bioeconomic model with three animal species to analyse the optimal combination of pastoral activities and wildlife conservation in the Serengeti ecosystem. Using Pontryagin's maximum principle, the market problem for each agent is optimized and compared to the social planner's outcome. Results show that the market solutions are suboptimal because of negative externalities affecting both agents and inadequate regard to biodiversity conservation values. Mathematical simulations of the bioeconomic model are used to generate a solution in which the Maasai pastoralists and park agency can optimally share the land for their mutual benefit. The policy implication is that the government should establish an independent regulatory institution with a primary mandate of balancing the contested socioeconomic and ecological needs of stakeholders in prime ecosystems such as the Serengeti.
Factors influencing smartphone usage of rural farmers : empirical analysis of five selected provinces in China
(Sage, 2024) Ma, Wanglin; Owusu-Sekyere, Enoch; Zheng, Hongyun; Owusu, Victor
The increasing usage of smartphones by practitioners in various fields of expertise is attracting global attention. However, scanty evidence exists on smartphone usage among rural farmers in developing countries. Using data collected from 1286 rural farming households in five provinces in China, this study investigates the factors influencing rural farmers’ decisions to use smartphones. The findings from a Probit model reveal that education, health condition, asset ownership, income levels, peers’ smartphone usage, internet access, cooperative membership, access to credit, and off-farm work participation are the main factors driving smartphone usage of rural farmers. The age of the farmer rather affects smartphone usage negatively and significantly. Further heterogeneous analysis shows that the influences of factors on smartphone usage vary across the survey provinces.
The impact of behavioral attributes on rural youth’s propensity to participate in non-primary agribusinesses : evidence from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
(Taylor and Francis, 2024) Baloyi, Raesetse; Wale, Edilegnaw; Chipfupa, Unity
Youth participation in agriculture in general and agribusinesses in particular remains limited in Africa and empirical insight on the enablers and inhibitors is limited. This paper aims to investigate the impact of behavioral attributes (such as entrepreneurial spirit and business skills endowment) on the potential participation of rural youth in non-primary agribusinesses. Principal Component Analysis and Fractional Logit Model were employed on a data set of 152 rural youth. The results show that most rural youth are endowed with entrepreneurial spirit and relatively well capacitated with business skills. The results further show that rural youth endowed with entrepreneurial spirit are less likely to engage in non-primary agribusinesses. Other factors that influence rural youth potential participation included psychological capital, agricultural perceptions, and demographics. The results suggest that interventional programs should consider behavioral attributes when aiming to attract rural youth into the sector.
A cost-benefit analysis of alternative management strategies for red deer in Denmark
(Springer, 2024-10) Jensen, Frank; Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark; Sunde, Peter
In this paper, we conduct a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of five alternative management strategies for red deer in Denmark: free harvest, trophy hunting, maximum harvest and two cases for natural demographic population compositions. To capture the outcome under each strategy we use a biological sex- and age-structured population model. The net benefit function includes meat values, recreational values, browsing damage costs and traffic damage costs and these values and costs are assumed to differ for the various sex and age classes of red deer. We show that the maximum harvest strategy leads to a reasonably high positive total net benefit, while the free harvest strategy yields a small positive net benefit. On the other hand, the trophy hunting strategy generates a high negative net benefit, while small negative net benefits are obtained under the two strategies for natural demographic population compositions.
Preferences for index-based pasture insurance : a choice experiment in Limpopo Province, South Africa
(Routledge, 2024) Manganyi, Bernard; Jourdain, Damien; Karuaihe, Selma Tuemumunu
South African subsistence livestock farmers rely heavily on traditional mitigation and coping mechanisms to deal with the eﬀects of drought. However, these methods have proven ineﬀective in managing the full impact of drought. Consequently, policymakers are increasingly interested in promoting Index-based Pasture Insurance (IBPI). This paper aims to assess subsistence livestock farmers’ preferences for IBPI. A simple random sampling method was used to select 110 subsistence livestock farmers for data collection. A discrete choice experiment—Conditional Logit and Latent Class models and incentivized lottery games were used to elicit preferences for insurance contracts and loss aversion. The ﬁndings indicate that subsistence livestock farmers have a favourable attitude toward IBPI contracts that protect against drought-related pasture degradation. The Conditional Logit model shows that farmers prefer transparent contracts that reimburse with feed and vouchers rather than cash. However, they derive negative marginal utility from basis risk and premium. However, the Latent Class model reveals heterogeneous preferences for IBPI among farmers. Farmers are also loss-averse, but loss aversion did not inﬂuence their preference for IBPI. Therefore, the primary recommendation for insurance providers is to consider customizing IBPI attributes to increase adoption among subsistence farmers.
Managing trade-offs between communities’ welfare and nature conservation : the case of wildlife management systems in and outside protected areas in Africa
(Annual Reviews, 2024-10) Muchapondwa, Edwin; Ntuli, Herbert; herbert.ntuli@up.ac.za
Successfully analyzing and managing trade-offs between community welfare and wildlife conservation are complex tasks that require a multidisciplinary approach and consideration of various factors. Bioeconomic modeling provides a structured quantitative framework for understanding and evaluating the complex interactions between biological systems and economic activities, aiding in the crafting of more effective and sustainable conservation and rural development strategies. Combined with results from other methods such as economic valuation, institutional analysis, impact evaluation, and framed-field experiments, they can provide guidance on reaching the social planner’s optimum. The literature suggests significant roles for comanagement, benefit-sharing, and sustainable financing of conservation as the key ingredients for managing the trade-offs between communities’ welfare and nature conservation in Africa. However, comprehensive research tackling multiple problems simultaneously is required to fully understand and manage the trade-offs. Further, mainstreaming gender and climate change in studies of the trade-offs is increasingly becoming an obligation.
Gender differentials in primary processing and market participation by mopane worm harvesters in Zimbabwe : insights from the COVID-19 pandemic phase
(BioMed Central, 2024-09) Musara, Joseph P.; Bahta, Yonas T.; Mapuranga, Rangarirai; Musiniwa, Fredy; Hatab, Assem Abu; Owusu‑Sekyere, Enoch
BACKGROUND: Gender disparities in access to inputs, markets, financial inclusion, and participation in strategic value chains are major developmental challenges in emerging economies. Participation in the edible insect value chain has become an essential source of income, food, and nutrition in some African countries. This paper uses a bivariate probit model to examine the gender differentials for primary mopane worm harvesters’ participation in primary processing and market participation during COVID19 in Southeastern Zimbabwe. Using a structured questionnaire, the data were gathered from 393 primary harvesters in five purposively selected wards in the Gwanda District of Zimbabwe. This study examines the gender differentials for primary mopane worm harvesters’ participation in primary processing and market participation during COVID19 in Southeastern Zimbabwe. RESULTS: Results show that women are likelier to participate in primary value addition to preparing for the lean season opportunities. There are gender differentials in the participation in markets during COVID19. Results show a significant negative relationship between participants’ ages and female engagement in mopane processing and a positive correlation with female involvement in lean COVID19 season marketing. Male harvesters’ participation in the lean market during the COVID19 pandemic was significantly correlated positively with age and education level, while the choice to participate in the lean market was negatively correlated with the dependency ratio. CONTRIBUTIONS: Collaborative, community centric, and gender accommodative development of the mopane worm value chain is important. Focal issues are on supporting primary value addition for lean season market participation and during market shocks such as COVID19. This can be a leap towards gender equality and improving livelihoods of women and men in mopane harvesting areas. The study recommends marketing and district specific policies explicitly addressing mopane worm harvesting and marketing affects market participation and primary value addition decisions.
Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points
(Copernicus Publications, 2024-04) Gianelli, Ignacio; Achieng, Therezah; Amon, Diva; Archibald, Sally; Arif, Suchinta; Castro, Azucena; Chimbadzwa, Tapiwa Prosper; Coetzer, Kaera L.; Field, Tracy-Lynn; Selomane, Odirilwe; Slingsby, Jasper A.; Stevens, Nicola; Villasante, Sebastian; Armani, Mohammed; Kimuyu, Duncan M.; Adewumi, Ibukun J.; Lapola, David M.; Obura, David; Pinho, Patricia; Roa-Clavijo, Felipe; Rocha, Juan; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid
Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take “b” into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points.
Consumers' willingness-to-pay for dairy and plant-based milk alternatives towards sustainable dairy : a scoping review
(Elsevier, 2024-11) Madududu, Pamela; Jourdain, Damien; Tran, Duc; Degieter, Margo; Karuaihe, Selma Tuemumunu; Ntuli, Herbert; De Steur, Hans; madududu.p@tuks.co.za
The dairy sector is transforming following growing concerns over sustainability, propelling innovations such as plant-based milk alternatives (PBMAs). Researchers have shown increasing interest in conducting studies on consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for dairy and PBMAs. This scoping review expounds on consumers' WTP for dairy and PBMAs, focusing on attributes to understand the variation across regions, value elicitation methods, driving factors, and impact on sustainable dairy. Researchers searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, and AgEcon databases and used descriptive statistics and thematic analysis to synthesize the findings of a scoping review of 123 worldwide studies. The reviewed studies applied stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) methods, but SP methods were dominant, especially discrete choice experiments (DCEs) (42 %) and contingent valuation methods (CVM) (25 %). Consumers were willing to pay an average premium of 44 % for all attributes. Most studies were on cow milk (90 %), whereas very few investigated PBMAs and other milk types. The average WTP for the attribute categories were organic (55 %), animal welfare (53 %), origin (45 %), milk quality and safety (45 %), brand (40 %), environmental (34 %), health-related (25 %), and sensory attributes (22 %). Consumers' WTP for dairy and PBMAs attributes impact the sustainability of the dairy sector across regions. Moreover, income, awareness, and information consciousness influenced consumers' WTP for organic, safety, health, and environmental milk attributes. This study highlights the complexity and diversity of consumers' WTP for dairy and PBMAs across regions. Our findings emphasize the need to employ multilevel strategies ranging from farm-level dairy production to processing and consumption to achieve socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable dairy. Future research should focus on consumers' WTP for PBMAs and gather more evidence on how consumers in Africa and South America value sustainable dairy and PBMAs.
Empirical analysis of drought-induced cattle destocking in South Africa
(AOSIS, 2024-03) Nketiah, Prince; Ntuli, Herbert; nketiah.prince@tuks.co.za
Destocking as a drought mitigation strategy exposes smallholder cattle farmers to adverse effects, including the distortion of farm planning and income loss, as cattle are sold off regardless of the market price. Factors influencing destocking as a drought mitigation strategy for smallholder cattle farmers have received less attention in the literature. The study assessed the relationship between drought and cattle destocking as well as factors that affect farmers’ destocking decision. The relationship between drought and cattle destocking was assessed using correlation analysis, while determinants of destocking were identified through the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model, which controlled for structural zeros. The research covered the period 2008–2017 using secondary data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), the South Africa Weather Service and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The study found that drought has direct correlation with the quantity of beef produced in South Africa at −0.67, with a 1% significance level. Farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics such as cattle herd size, income, secondary occupation, fodder purchase and ownership of land positively influenced cattle destocking decision while household size and cattle loss during drought influenced destocking decision negatively. CONTRIBUTION : The study estimated the determinants of smallholder cattle farmers’ decision to destock during drought, using a count model and accounted for socioeconomic and farmer-specific factors.
Ten new insights in climate science 2023
(Cambridge University Press, 2023-12) Bustamante, Mercedes; Roy, Joyashree; Ospina, Daniel; Achakulwisut, Ploy; Aggarwal, Anubha; Bastos, Ana; Broadgate, Wendy; Canadell, Josep G.; Carr, Edward R.; Chen, Deliang; Cleugh, Helen A.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Edwards, Clea; Farbotko, Carol; Fernandez-Martinez, Marcos; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Fuss, Sabine; Geden, Oliver; Gruber, Nicolas; Harrington, Luke J.; Hauck, Judith; Hausfather, Zeke; Hebden, Sophie; Hebinck, Aniek; Huq, Saleemul; Huss, Matthias; Jamero, M. Laurice P.; Juhola, Sirkku; Kumarasinghe, Nilushi; Lwasa, Shuaib; Mallick, Bishawjit; Martin, Maria; McGreevy, Steven; Mirazo, Paula; Mukherji, Aditi; Muttitt, Greg; Nemet, Gregory F.; Obura, David; Okereke, Chukwumerije; Oliver, Tom; Orlove, Ben; Ouedraogo, Nadia S.; Patra, Prabir K.; Pelling, Mark; Pereira, Laura M.; Persson, Asa; Pongratz, Julia; Prakash, Anjal; Rammig, Anja; Raymond, Colin; Redman, Aaron; Reveco, Cristobal; Rockstrom, Johan; Regina Rodrigues; Rounce, David R.; Schipper, E. Lisa F.; Schlosser, Peter; Selomane, Odirilwe; Semieniuk, Gregor; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Siddiqui, Tasneem A.; Singh, Vartika; Sioen, Giles B.; Sokona, Youba; Stammer, Detlef; Steinert, Norman J.; Suk, Sunhee; Sutton, Rowan; Thalheimer, Lisa; Thompson, Vikki; Trencher, Gregory; Van der Geest, Kees; Werners, Saskia E.; Wubbelmann, Thea; Wunderling, Nico; Yin, Jiabo; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Zscheischler, Jakob
NON-TECHNICHAL SUMMARY. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. TECHNICHAL SUMMARY. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. SOCIAL MEDIA SUMMARY. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
Community perceptions on land and water acquisitions in the Okavango Delta : implications for rural livelihoods
(Taylor and Francis, 2024) Phonchi-Tshekiso, Nametso Dorothy; Slingsby, Jasper A.; Selomane, Odirilwe
Large-scale land acquisitions in Africa are increasing, reported often as the transfers of land for food and biofuel crop production. Only reporting agricultural acquisitions underplays potential impacts of other forms of acquisitions like tourism and conservation, which are new engines for economic growth in Southern Africa. While this shift has complex social-ecological implications, there is limited evidence of the multiple ways that land acquisitions unfold in wetland ecosystems, and implications for people and nature. This study aims to investigate local perceptions of implications of land and water acquisitions on local livelihoods in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, using in-depth interviews with 116 local respondents in Etsha 6, Khwai and Tubu villages. Findings revealed that the primary drivers of land acquisitions in the Okavango Delta were tourism and subsistence agriculture, and a new and unique land exchange (we termed land borrowing) was prevalent in Tubu, involving the borrowing of farmland in flood recessions between locals. Concessions, borrowings, and rentals were key perceived land acquisition types. Both positive and negative impacts of land acquisitions on livelihoods surfaced. The diversity of cultural grouping influenced locals’ intricate connection with riparian waters and affected how land was exchanged and governed. The disparities in benefits from land resources have negative implications for equitable resource distribution and natural resource governance, in policy and practice. This research highlights the importance of an expanded view of acquisitions and associated impacts with closer attention to power dynamics which can facilitate more nuanced implementation of targets of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity framework.

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