Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system

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Authors

Issifu, Ibrahim
Dahmouni, Ilyass
Sumaila, Ussif Rashid

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

Plastic's incredible versatility drives its continuous production growth, contributing to 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With an unsustainable 4% annual production growth rate, plastics' environmental impact is significant. Our study, using climate and economic models, assesses the effects of a voluntary plastic levy imposed on the top 100 resin producers. The results suggest a potential 70% reduction in global plastic production emissions by 2050, lowering emissions from business–as–usual levels to 1.62 Gt CO2e. The proposed USD 82.5 billion levy over 25 years could fund recycling initiatives, increasing recycling rates by 73%. To align with the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, plastic production growth would need to drop to approximately 2.9%–3.1% annually, achieving a 25% decrease by 2050. Implementing this levy could significantly enhance recycling and reduce emissions, mitigating climate change.

Description

DATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be made available on request.

Keywords

Plastic pollution, Global greenhouse gas (GHG), GHG emissions, Carbon dioxide equivalents, External costs, Voluntary levy, Cooperative behavior, SDG-12: Responsible consumption and production, SDG-09: Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG-09: Industry, innovation and infrastructure
SDG-12:Responsible consumption and production

Citation

Issifu, I., Dahmouni, I. & Sumaila, U.R. 2025, 'Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system', Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 374, art. 124104, pp. 1-9, doi : 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124104.