Knightian uncertain violence and the challenge of FDI-assisted development : policy recommendations where civilian lives are at risk

dc.contributor.authorThakur‑Wernz, Pooja
dc.contributor.authorBarnard, Helena
dc.contributor.authorMatthee, Marianne
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-24T05:53:32Z
dc.date.available2025-04-24T05:53:32Z
dc.date.issued2024-09
dc.description.abstractIn this interdisciplinary paper, reviewing scholarship on both politically motivated and social violence, we use the Knightian distinction between (measurable) risk and (unknowable) uncertainty to examine how international business is affected when violence is directed at civilians, civilians are killed, and violence levels are constantly changing. Using data on 48 African countries (1997–2021), we show the uncertainty of these actions deters inward foreign direct investment (IFDI). As a high-commitment mode of internationalization, IFDI involves deepening knowledge of and exposure to foreign locations. Because uncertainty challenges the feasibility of deepening knowledge and is so hard to mitigate, investors behave differently than under risky conditions—they avoid contexts with Knightian uncertain violence. Our post hoc analysis shows that as IFDI decreases, exporting by local firms increases, suggesting another way to remain globally economically connected. Although our work raises many questions that demand further research, we can already identify useful policy insights. When violence makes a context uncertain to the point of virtual unknowability, IFDI will only assist development if policymakers and MNEs alike work to reduce violence. Multi-sectoral partnerships, increasing educational opportunities, and especially good governance are critical to ensuring IFDI is not appropriated by perpetrators of violence, but instead serves development.en_US
dc.description.departmentGordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)en_US
dc.description.librarianam2025en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-16:Peace,justice and strong institutionsen_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-17:Partnerships for the goalsen_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.palgrave.com/gb/journal/42214en_US
dc.identifier.citationThakur‑Wernz, P., Barnard, H., MAtthee, M. 2024, 'Knightian uncertain violence and the challenge of FDI‑assisted development : policy recommendations where civilian lives are at risk', Journal of International Business Policy, vol. 7, pp. 356-390. https://DOI.org/10.1057/s42214-024-00188-1.en_US
dc.identifier.issn2522-0691 (print)
dc.identifier.issn2522-0705 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1057/s42214-024-00188-1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/102192
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPalgrave Macmillanen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.en_US
dc.subjectViolenceen_US
dc.subjectEmerging marketsen_US
dc.subjectUncertainty versus risken_US
dc.subjectAfricaen_US
dc.subjectVolatilityen_US
dc.subjectViolence against civiliansen_US
dc.subjectInward foreign direct investment (IFDI)en_US
dc.subjectSDG-16: Peace, justice and strong institutionsen_US
dc.subjectSDG-17: Partnerships for the goalsen_US
dc.titleKnightian uncertain violence and the challenge of FDI-assisted development : policy recommendations where civilian lives are at risken_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
ThakurWernz_Knightian_2024.pdf
Size:
1.13 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Article

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: