The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption : evidence from South Africa

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Authors

Ye, Yuxiang
Koch, Steven F.
Ye, Xianming

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

Climate change is expected to negatively affect Africa, possibly leading to increased energy needs. However, meeting that need could prove problematic; more than a decade of load-shedding in South Africa is suggestive in that regard. In this research we examine the effect of temperature on electricity consumption, focusing on mainly rural households in South Africa. We apply a series of fixed effects panel models to hourly temperature and electricity consumption data across eight months and twelve locations in the country. We find limited evidence that increased temperatures drive increased electricity use; rather, electricity use increases as temperatures decline, although at temperatures below 10 °C, the gradient is approximately level. Given that few of our study’s households own cooling or heating appliances, the result is not entirely surprising. However, without such appliances, poor rural households will not be able to cope with rising temperatures.

Description

DATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be made available on request.

Keywords

Climate change, Temperature effect, Household electricity consumption, Meter data, SDG-13: Climate action, SDG-07: Affordable and clean energy

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG-07:Affordable and clean energy
SDG-13:Climate action

Citation

Ye, Y., Koch, S.F. & Ye, X. 2025, 'The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption: evidence from South Africa', Energy, vol. 319, art. 134925, pp. 1-11, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134925.