An empirical analysis of the determinants of food insecurity among smallholder farmers in Eastern Rwanda

Abstract

BACKGROUND : Food insecurity is one of the most pressing problems confronting households in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is particularly acute in low income areas across the continent. Despite Rwanda’s economic progress, food insecurity persists especially in rural areas, necessitating empirical evidence to inform targeted interventions that address the complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental and policy factors affecting household food insecurity. Factors affecting food insecurity vary, and obtaining context-specific information is necessary for designing relevant interventions. This empirical study analyzes factors affecting the probability of experiencing severe food insecurity in Eastern Rwanda and discusses how land restoration strategies like agroforestry may contribute to it. Panel data collected in 2018 and 2022 from 1100 randomly selected households are analyzed using both descriptive statistics and a correlated random effects probit model. RESULTS : The findings show a generally high level of food insecurity, with sample households having average food insecurity experience scale scores of 6.02 in 2018 and 5.73 in 2022. Moreover, 63% and 60% of the households experienced severe food insecurity in the two periods, respectively. The empirical results show that farming practices and household socio-economic characteristics played a more significant role in food insecurity status. Households that cultivated different crops had a lower probability of experiencing severe food insecurity and larger households were more likely to experience severe food insecurity. However, agroforestry-related variables were not statistically significant in reducing the probability of severe food insecurity experience in the study area. CONCLUSION : The study concludes that food insecurity in the study area is high. To address the prevailing situation, efforts to reduce food insecurity should focus on solutions that could increase food production in the short term, such as improving household socio-economic status, diversifying crop production and market-focused production. However, these need to be aligned with local needs and ecological conditions. Agroforestry interventions should focus on integrating suitable tree species into farming systems, and future studies should account for the time dimension to accurately capture long-term effects of such interventions. Moreover, experimental studies to enable rigorous impact analysis of agroforestry interventions are recommended.