How is climate science used to inform national-level adaptation planning in southern Africa?

Abstract

Climate model projections are increasingly being included within adaptation planning across sectors but there is limited understanding of how they are being used, and to what extent they improve adaptation planning. This article investigates how climate projections inform adaptation planning processes in the National Communications (NCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 16 southern African countries through a document analysis together with 18 key informant interviews. The study found that all the NCs include future climate model projections for the mid and/or late twenty-first century and focus on average changes in temperature and precipitation; meanwhile, the models, scenarios and time periods used vary between countries. The climate analysis is often detached from the adaptation planning section of the NC. The impacts and adaptation sections focus on key risks, such as flooding and drought and have limited recognition of uncertainties, suggesting plans are made without considering the full range of plausible futures. The role of climate science in the adaptation planning process varies, with some evidence of highly collaborative processes, resulting in evidence-based adaptation options across sectors and scales. In many cases, boundary agents play a key role in interpreting and communicating climate projections. We suggest that providing additional climate projections is unlikely to improve national adaptation planning, despite their scientific benefits. Instead, the focus should be on developing approaches and collaborative processes to distil and interpret climate information in different contexts, to enable decision-makers to understand the range of plausible futures, including changes in climate alongside growing populations, urbanization and changing economies.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS • Climate data analysis in policy documents is often limited to average temperature and rainfall, and the average of many models, which may underestimate emerging risks, for example, from heat and sea level rise. • Climate data analysis is sometimes detached from impact assessment and adaptation options; a potential barrier to rigorous decision-making. • Collaborative processes can integrate climate science into risk assessment and adaptation planning, with a key role for boundary agents. • Improving evidence-informed adaptation planning requires the interpretation of information through a collaborative process.