Seperating the winners from the losers : a model for stock selection

Abstract

Through a multiple regression analysis on a number of financial and non-financial variables with the actual share growth over a period of 36 months, it was found that no correlation or relationship exists between share growth and almost all variables commonly used as screens for purposed of identifying stocks to potentially invest in for the longer term. The four commonly selected value investing ratios explored in this study are the price-earnings ratio, dividend yield, price-to-sales ratio and book-to-sales ratio. Only two of these ratios were found to have a relationship to the growth in stock prices, albeit, very weak. If anything, this study has shown the importance of length historical data when trying to determine relationships and trends in order to determine whether a company is has investment potential.The non-financial information used consisted of the environmental, social and governance scores or ratings as evaluated by independent analysts across companies in the industry. This is a relative new measure and therefore lacks sufficient history to enable credible conclusion of its impact on the growth of a share or the return investors over the short to medium term.