Theses and Dissertations (Economics)

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Essays on macroeconomic uncertainty, monetary policy and financial development in the G7 and BRICS countries
Simaanya, Frederica (University of Pretoria, 2025-08-30)
Recent literature on macroeconomic uncertainty emphasizes its disruptive effects on monetary policy effectiveness and financial development, yet much of the existing work focuses on aggregate linear effects and rarely accounts for regime dependence or threshold dynamics. In both advanced and emerging economies, uncertainty alters the transmission of policy shocks, amplifies volatility, and undermines financial stability. However, the specific thresholds and asymmetric channels through which uncertainty influences monetary policy and financial development remain underexplored. This thesis addresses these gaps by systematically investigating the threshold and nonlinear effects of macroeconomic uncertainty in G7 and BRICS countries across three self-contained essays. The first essay examines the threshold effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on monetary policy in G7 countries using quarterly data from 2000 to 2024 and a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework. The results reveal a distinct uncertainty threshold separating low- and high-uncertainty regimes. During high-uncertainty periods, monetary policy effectiveness is significantly reduced, with shocks to uncertainty producing amplified effects on key macroeconomic variables. This highlights a policy dilemma for central banks, which must navigate amplified trade-offs under unstable market conditions. The second essay investigates the threshold effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on monetary policy in BRICS countries using annual data from 2000 to 2022 and a SVAR approach. The findings confirm the existence of two uncertainty regimes: low and high. While interest rate rules appear effective under low-uncertainty conditions, they break down during high-uncertainty regimes, suggesting that conventional monetary policy loses traction when uncertainty escalates. The results also show that macroeconomic uncertainty shocks exert disproportionately stronger effects on core macroeconomic variables during high-uncertainty periods. These findings highlight the critical importance of adopting flexible policy responses tailored to prevailing uncertainty conditions in emerging economies. The third essay investigates the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on financial development in G7 and BRICS countries from 1980 to 2024. Using a Markov-Switching regression framework, the analysis employs the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and exchange rate volatility (ERV) as proxies for uncertainty, alongside the policy interest rate to capture the monetary transmission channel. The results reveal that the effects of uncertainty on financial development are highly regime dependent. In particular, macroeconomic uncertainty exerts more destabilising effects under high-uncertainty regimes, while monetary policy amplifies these effects. Wald tests of asymmetry confirm that the responses of financial development differ significantly across regimes, suggesting threshold-like dynamics in how uncertainty shocks propagate through the financial system. Interconnectedly, the three essays contribute to the literature by demonstrating that the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on monetary policy and financial development are nonlinear and, regime-dependent. The overall findings emphasize the need for adaptive, regime-sensitive monetary and financial policy frameworks that can effectively mitigate the risks of uncertainty shocks. These insights are particularly valuable for policymakers seeking to enhance financial stability and resilience in both advanced and emerging economies.
Essays on the feasibility of industrial policy in South Africa : a comparative analysis between South Korea and South Africa
Gabaocwe, Motlatsi (University of Pretoria, 2025-10-30)
Post 1994, South Africa adopted various industrial policy interventions aimed at supporting labour-intensive manufacturing to promote job creation, albeit with limited success. This thesis investigates the feasibility of industrial policy in promoting labour absorbing growth in South Africa based on lessons from South Korea’s success with economic development using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The analysis employs selective industrial policy strategies to create conducive conditions associated with good labour market outcomes. Firstly, competitive labour market conditions are simulated by lowering the economy-wide labour cost relative to capital through the provision of low-skilled labour wage subsidies. Simulation results reveal that although aggregate employment returns to the baseline in the long-run, there is a net increase in low-skilled employment contributing to a more labour-intensive economy. Secondly, free-trade and flexible labour market conditions are simulated in an export-oriented Special Economic Zone (SEZ) specialising in labour-intensive activities. Free-trade conditions are simulated by removal of import duties and import value-added tax (VAT) on inputs used in producing exports in the SEZ. Flexible labour market conditions are simulated using labour productivity improvements. Simulation results under free-trade conditions show a minimal positive increase in demand for low-skilled labour in the long-run. Combining free-trade simulation with flexible labour market conditions increases the demand intensity for low-skilled labour. In conclusion, the study findings suggest that adopting an export-led industrial policy regime, underpinned by competitive labour market conditions, promotes more labour-absorbing growth in South Africa than a targeted export-oriented SEZ under free-trade and labour market flexibility.
Essays on moral disengagement and contributions to public goods in South Africa
Chingwere, Fadzayi (University of Pretoria, 2025-09-30)
Moral disengagement is a set of cognitive strategies people use to justify or rationalize choices that might otherwise conflict with their moral self-image. Framed within a public-goods context, this dissertation examines how moral disengagement, together with reactance and disgust sensitivity relates to two socially consequential choices in South Africa: vaccination and charitable donations, and how tax incentives shape the latter. Three studies address these questions. First, using a national online survey of adults (n=1,006), we estimate associations between the three psychological constructs and both vaccine hesitancy and adoption. Higher moral disengagement is associated with greater hesitancy; reactance and disgust show similar positive associations. In contrast, in models of realized uptake, moral disengagement is not a significant predictor, while disgust sensitivity is associated with a 20 percentage-point lower probability of taking the primary COVID-19 vaccine and around a 15 percentage-point lower probability of taking a booster (variables scaled 0–1; effects reported as average marginal effects). Second, a separate survey (n=1,039) links moral disengagement to charitable giving. Moral disengagement is higher, on average, among men, younger respondents, and those with lower education or employment; it predicts less frequent self-reported giving but does not significantly explain behavior in a one-shot incentivized donation task, consistent with situational importance in small stakes choices. Third, administrative tax data (2011–2021) show clear bunching at the 10% donations-deduction cap, implying local responsiveness to the effective price/salience of giving; responsiveness varies by group (stronger among females, working-age adults, and the less wealthy). Across chapters, estimates are associational (survey studies) or local to the policy kink (bunching). Taken together, the findings highlight identity-preserving reframing (moral disengagement), autonomy costs (reactance), affective costs (disgust), and price/salience as complementary channels for understanding vaccination and philanthropic behavior in South Africa
Macroeconomic policy in an unequal society
Matshaka, Nyemwererai (University of Pretoria, 2025)
This thesis aims to provide an in-depth analysis of macroeconomic policy and its role in economies characterised by inequality. Inequality remains a key focus for economists to address, and policy is a significant tool for achieving this. Persistent and high levels of inequality are widely recognised as detrimental to livelihoods, posing a challenge for policymakers. We focus on macroeconomic policy, particularly monetary and fiscal in nature, while also considering innovation and its implications for redistribution. Therefore, by integrating these perspectives, the thesis contributes to broadening the understanding of inequality, growth, and the mechanisms of policy interventions. The thesis comprises of five chapters and the first chapter provides a general introduction and outlines the context of the thesis. The second chapter examines the relationship between monetary policy and inequality by considering the impact of inflation on redistribution and how pre-existing inequality affects the effectiveness of monetary policy in macroeconomic outcomes. We adopt an overlapping generations model in which money is introduced through a cash-in-advance constraint, and we incorporate heterogeneous agents to develop a framework that captures the dynamics of growth, inflation, and inequality. Findings reveal that seigniorage-driven inflation exacerbates inequality by taxing income, while capital accumulation dynamics also relate to inequality. However, the inflation targeting tool is shown to be more effective in the absence of inequality and redistributive distortions.The subsequent chapter analyses how product variety, through a mechanism of research and development (R&D) productivity, influences growth and consumption inequality. We develop a model that integrates the two-agent, worker-capitalist, framework with an R&D-based endogenous growth model. We establish a consumption gap index based on the differences in consumption levels between households. The analysis confirms that innovation drives economic growth through an R&D productivity mechanism; however, it also increases inequality. The model is extended to include policy interventions in the form of a subsidy on R&D and a tax on income and assets. These interventions yields divergent results. Labour income tax reduces inequality while asset income tax and the R&D subsidy widens the consumption gap. In the final chapter, we revisit the fundamental question in monetary economics on the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and inequality in an endogenous Schumpeterian growth economy. In contrast to previous studies, we consider the effects of both monetary and patent policy on growth and inequality. To examine this relationship, we develop a monetary quality ladder Schumpeterian growth frame-iii work in a heterogeneous agent economy with two household types. Findings show that monetary policy, through the increase in the nominal interest rate, decreases growth and increases income inequality. Tightened monetary policy raises the cost of borrowing and discourages investment, which dampens growth. The observed reduction in inequality is primarily driven by the negative impact of high interest rates on capitalists, while workers are not directly affected. As such, the reduced inequality does not reflect an improvement in the welfare of either agent. Strengthening patent policy is shown to have a positive effect on growth driven by enhanced technology. However, the increased breadth of protection accentuates inequality, highlighting a concentration of gains among entrepreneurs. Chapter 5 concludes by providing a summary of the thesis and suggesting future areas of research.
Education and labour market outcomes
Samahiya, Obrein Muine (University of Pretoria, 2025-07)
Unemployment is widespread in Africa, particularly in South Africa, where high levels contribute to poverty and inequality, correlating with poor educational outcomes. This thesis explores the impact of education on labour market outcomes in South Africa using data from the South African General Household Survey (GHS). It is comprised of three stand-alone papers each focussing on a specific topic, which corresponds to chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 2 estimates the effects of education on the probability of employment. I use the compulsory schooling reform of 1997 to identify the effect of education on employment outcomes. The mandatory schooling policy required all children aged 7 and older to be in school up until they reached the age of 15 or Grade 9. Using the GHS data for the period 2014-2018 and the two-stage least squares technique, the results indicate that compulsory schooling increased average educational attainment by between 0.04 and 0.18 years. However, the effect differs by gender: an additional year of compulsory schooling raised education by 0.04 to 0.20 years for males and by 0.09 to 0.17 years for females. On average, an additional year of education increases the probability of employment by 7.3 to 28.4 percentage points, depending on the survey year. When disaggregated by gender, education is associated with a 3.0 to 18.0 percentage point increase in employment probability for women and a 3.0 to 13.9 percentage point increase for men. The results further reveal substantial variation in the effect of education on employment across race and gender. Black African and White males employment gains from education are larger than for females while among individuals of mixed race, there is no clear gender pattern. Theses results emphasize the essential contribution of education to improving employment opportunities in South Africa. In addition, they underscore the importance of targeted education policies that addresses gender and racial disparities in employment. In Chapter 3 I explore whether the 1997 Compulsory Schooling Law helps explain gender-based differences in wage distributions and whether labour market selection effects influence this relationship. The analysis employs conditional quantile regression and a selection-adjusted approach that accounts for non-random selection into employment. While compulsory schooling laws aim to retain children in school, based on the assumption that increased schooling enhances employment prospects and earnings, South Africa’s education system under performs relative to many other countries, which may weaken the intended impact of compulsory schooling reforms on labour market outcomes. Using the GHS data for 2018 the study reveals that returns to education are generally higher for women than for men, that the compulsory schooling law raised these returns, and that returns vary across both the wage distribution and levels of education — suggesting that schooling contributes to wage inequality. Additionally, adjusting for non-random selection into employment lowers the estimated returns for women but does not change the relative pattern of returns before and after the compulsory schooling policy was implemented. Expanding access to higher education for previously disadvantaged groups and enhancing the quality of skills training through targeted policies could contribute to narrowing labour market earnings disparities. Chapter 4 examines how education impacts labour market earnings among Black South Africans. According to the country’s compulsory schooling law, children must start Grade R or Grade 1 in the year they turn six or seven, provided their birthday falls on or before June 30 of the admission year. I take advantage of the natural variation in educational attainment created by this school entry cut-off to estimate the returns to education using a regression discontinuity design, drawing on data from the GHS for the years 2014 to 2018. This study adds to the sparse literature on the effects of school entry policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results reveal signs of birth date manipulation around January 1st, possibly to benefit from school admission rules. To minimize bias from this potential manipulation, I exclude individuals born on January 1st from the analysis sample. This approach helps reduce distortions in the estimated treatment effects. The evidence suggests that starting school at a younger age is linked to fewer years of schooling completed and lower labour market earnings. However, among those who began school early, education has a statistically significant positive effect on earnings. These results highlight key policy concerns about the optimal school starting age and emphasize the importance of providing additional support to younger entrants who might face academic disadvantages.
Essays on climate, health and economics
Mashinda, Antoinette Mujinga (University of Pretoria, 2025-07)
The impacts of climate change are predicted to continue worsening and developing countries are expected to bear the hardest burden. Extreme temperatures or precipitations, wildfires, floods, and droughts contribute to increasing health problems, leading to adverse impacts on cognitive development, employment, and earnings. Despite the increasing evidence of the link between climate and health, this has yet to be fully explored in developing countries. Thus, this thesis aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between climate, health, and economics in Africa. Linking Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) with climate data, the thesis investigates the long term impact of droughts on women's health and socioeconomic outcomes as well as on the health of their children. The findings indicate that exposure to cumulative droughts during childhood is associated with lower educational attainment and household wealth in adulthood, increased probabilities of having underweight and low birthweight offspring, and a higher likelihood of giving birth to female children. The thesis also finds that the long term effects of droughts are mainly felt by boys than girls. The thesis further explores the remediating role of positive rainfall shocks on catch-up growth in weight for low birth weight (LBW) children in Kenya. Using the relative and absolute definitions of catch-up growth expressed as a positive change in either WAZ or Weight for Age Difference (WAD), respectively, the paper finds that LBW children experience catch-up growth in weight both at ages 2 and 4 and that positive rainfall shocks, specifically moderate moisture, may improve both WAZ and WAD, serving as a remedial investment. Finally, the thesis uses anonymised daily Covid-19 case data and Meteorological data to explore the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of Covid-19 in Cape Town while distinguishing between Low and High socio-economic status (LSE, HSE) areas. Using the distributed-lag nonlinear model (DLNM), the findings show that people from HSE were more vulnerable to cold effects than those from LSE. Heat effects significantly lowered the risk of Covid-19 incidence in LSE; in contrast, heat effects increased the risk in HSE. Relative humidity increased the risk of Covid-19 in all areas.
Essays on spatial effects of public schools infrastructure on growth and inequality
Mbambo, Sibonelo P.N. (University of Pretoria, 2025-05)
This thesis analyses the impact of public investment on growth and spatial inequality in post apartheid South Africa, focusing on a large public school construction program implemented from 1994 to 2013. Using a unique dataset on school construction, the study assesses the spatial distribution and economic effect of educational investment across local municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa more broadly. This thesis is divided into three main chapters. Chapter 2 explores the placement, design, and distribution of public schools and economic activities across 44 local municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to map school locations and night lights as proxies for economic activity from 1992 to 2013. Public schools are classified into fee-paying and non-fee schools, corresponding to different financing models, The analysis shows substantial spatial variations in economic activity and school growth. Ethekwini municipality, for instance, demonstrates higher growth in economic activity and greater school placement variation, especially among fee-paying schools, compared to eDumbe, which shows minimal economic growth and is the least-performing municipality. Chapter 3 investigates the effects of public-school placements on growth and spatial inequality across 120 local municipalities from 1992 to 2013, controlling for a large set of initial conditions and local factors. The results show that investment in fee-paying schools, where schools' running costs are partially covered by parents, is associated with positive income growth, while investment in non-fee schools appears to have no significant effect on local income and may contribute negatively. Using quantile regression, the analysis reveals that public investment has primarily benefited higher-income municipalities, exacerbating inequality. Finally, chapter 4 applies hierarchical linear modelling to decompose spatial heterogeneity in educational investment across municipalities over the same period. This chapter finds significant variability in both income and economic growth across municipalities, with metropolitan municipalities receiving a larger share of school construction investment compared to non-metropolitan areas. The findings indicate the presence of random variations or unconditional means in both intercepts and slopes for local municipalities where the public schools (fee and non-fee schools) are nested. The analysis suggests that public school investments are spatially uneven, with metropolitan and more affluent areas gaining more resources, which likely contributes to the persistence of inequality in South Africa.
Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa
Vumbukani-Lepolesa, Bokang Constance (University of Pretoria, 2024-10)
This thesis introduces a financial module into a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for South Africa. The new hybrid model, University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Finance Model (UPGEM-F), integrates real and financial aspects of the South African economy. This provides a relatively broader description of the economy-wide effects of the shocks compared to conventional CGE models. The real side of the model is anchored in the theoretical specification of the standard University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM) that recognises many industries and commodities, alongside other economic actors. The financial side of the model considers the following agents, i) the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), ii) commercial banks, iii) the rest of the world, iv) general government, v) households, vi) industries (excluding housing), vii) non-bank financial institutions, viii) established housing, and ix) new housing developments. Additionally, the model recognises five financial instruments: i) notes and coins, ii) deposits and loans, iii) equity, iv) bonds, and v) gold and special drawing rights. The model uses economic data mainly from Statistics South Africa and the South African Reserve Bank. Two simulations are run to showcase the application of UPGEM-F. The first simulation assesses the economy-wide impact of a decrease in monetary inflows to South Africa from the rest of the world, following a downgrade to South Africa’s credit rating. In this application, the cost of investment increases with the increase in the country’s investment risk. This leads to a decrease in investment and a plunge in economic activity and factor incomes. This is consistent with the results of a standard UPGEM model, but UPGEM-F provides nuanced linkages between financial and real sectors of the economy. The second simulation assesses the economy-wide impact of an increase in assets held by the SARB, among other things, through bond purchases. This simulation results in a decrease in the interest rate, which, in turn, stimulates investment and improves aggregate demand. This sparks an increase in employment as well as private and public consumption.
The impact of digital financial inclusion on energy and the environment
Mukalayi, Muvumbu Nancy (University of Pretoria, 2025-02-17)
To mitigate the elevated levels of economic poverty, the G20, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank have initiated a campaign to promote financial inclusion in developing regions. A significant number of individuals in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia have integrated into the financial system owing to technological advancements in financial services. Digital financial inclusion (DFI) influences economic growth, subsequently impacting energy consumption and the environment. The thesis's primary goal is to investigate how digital financial inclusion has affected energy usage and CO2 emissions in 33 SSA nations between 2004 and 2020. This thesis raises four research questions: First, what are the primary factors influencing the relationship between energy consumption, environmental developments, and digital financial inclusion in SSA countries relative to other global regions? Second, what main variables influence the connection between the shifts in energy consumption patterns in SSA countries and digital financial inclusion? Third, how can we optimise environmental sustainability optimistically while promoting digital financial inclusion? And four, what are the environmental effects of digital financial inclusion activities in SSA countries? To address these questions, this thesis is subdivided into three main parts. The first part examines the global position of the SSA region compared to other regions regarding digital financial inclusion, energy consumption, and the environment. The second and the third parts focus, respectively, on the effect of digital financial inclusion on energy consumption and CO2 emissions. A comparative methodology is employed to evaluate the advancement of sophisticated digital services and financial inclusion concerning energy consumption and environmental impact across different geographic regions. The Generalised Method of Moments was employed to assess the impact of DFI on energy consumption and environmental conditions in SSA countries. The key results include that, in terms of socioeconomic indicators and the proportion of people claiming to have a bank or financial institution account, SSA region is the least wealthy region when compared to other regions. The impact of financial inclusion, which considers the availability of financial services like the number of ATMs and the use of such services as the number of depositors, are positively associated with the energy usage and CO2 emissions. Conversely, there is a negative correlation between commercial bank borrowers and energy consumption and a positive correlation between commercial bank borrowers and CO2 emissions. The quantity of bank branches is, meanwhile, insignificant. When the interaction term between financial inclusion proxies and the number of mobile cellular is introduced, the interaction term is negative associated with energy usage and CO2 emission. The findings offer significant policy insights for policymakers, especially in encouraging the financial sector to offer “green loans” to reduce energy intensity and CO2 emissions. Incentive and regulatory measures can make sustainable projects more attractive, with tax rebates for lenders and borrowers. Low-income households should be prioritised in climate change efforts, with increased digital financial access and microfinance initiatives aimed at financing energy-efficient projects in marginalised areas.
The current and potential roles of municipal registers of properties in South Africa
Channing, Janet (University of Pretoria, 2024-08-30)
Theory suggests that the recurrent property tax is a good local tax. Most countries have a form of property tax that is an important source of own source revenue for local government. Market value is well regarded as the most appropriate base for property taxation as it is considered both fair and equitable, and it considers the general ability to pay. The Local Government: Municipal Property Rates Act, 6 of 2004 (hereafter “MPRA”) regulates recurrent property tax, known as property rates in South Africa, and is levied by municipalities. The MPRA also provides for the assembly and maintenance of municipal registers of properties. These registers or inventories provide the coverage required for property rates. This thesis evaluates how the municipal registers of properties are currently implemented from legislative, institutional, and operational perspectives. This research contributes to knowledge by developing a consistent understanding of the utility of the municipal registers of properties and the operational tasks required to establish and maintain these registers for more efficacious rating. This thesis evaluates the potential of the municipal registers of properties as an instrument for more successful financial reporting, as well as exploring potential applications towards improved land administration in South Africa. The findings of this thesis indicate that, with certain legislative amendments, adjustments to institutional arrangements, careful thesis of operational workstreams, and rigorous monitoring and oversight, geospatial municipal registers of properties may contribute a lot more than their present role of providing coverage for property rating. The role of the municipal register of properties should be elevated from providing coverage for property rates to the ‘single version of the truth’ for all property-related business processes in municipalities and beyond.
A regulatory framework for tax whistleblowing in South Africa
Labuschagne, Megan (University of Pretoria, 2024)
This study explores the viability and practicality of incorporating an incentivised tax whistleblowing programme in the Tax Administration Act, 28 of 2011. The primary objective of the study is to develop a legislative framework that can be used as a baseline for the development of the Tax Administration Act. To achieve this primary objective, the study considers the theories of compliance such as economic deterrence theory, fiscal exchange theory, social and comparative treatment and trust and political legitimacy of revenue authorities. These theories provide a basis for concluding on the factors that influence taxpayers' behaviour. The potential effect of a whistleblowing programme on these theories is considered to determine the potential role of an incentivised whistleblowing programme. The study also considers protection laws, fines, reporting duties and rewards as different regulatory policies or strategies to compel tax compliance. Finally, by taking lessons from the policy designs of the US and Australia, the study concludes on the foundational requirements for an incentivised whistleblowing programme. The study adopts a mixed-method approach. It involves reviewing the findings of existing studies on behavioural economics to understand taxpayer behaviour and a doctrinal analysis of the existing legislative framework in South Africa. In addition, the study also examines the regulatory designs of incentivised tax whistleblowing frameworks in the US and Australia, not for comparative purposes, but to gather key insights into the foundational requirements for an incentivised tax whistleblowing programme. The key findings of the study can be summarised in three main points. Firstly, South Africa does not have an incentivised tax whistleblowing programme. In fact, there is no incentivised whistleblowing programme in South Africa. Secondly, the South African tax legislative framework requires amendment to accommodate such a programme. Tax whistleblowing is a fundamental and powerful tool for revenue authorities to collect information and combat tax non-compliance and evasion. Thirdly, the proposed incentivised legislative framework envisages the following seven foundational requirements: i. A separate office within SARS that deals with whistleblower reports; ii. The investigation powers currently available to SARS must be available for this separate office to investigate the whistleblower reports; iii. A preliminary reward must be calculated; iv. Appropriate dispute resolution mechanisms and processes; v. A system for payment of rewards; vi. Adequate protection for whistleblowers and taxpayers; and vii. Appropriate anti-retaliation mechanisms. Finally, the proposed whistleblowing programme passes preliminary constitutional scrutiny making it a viable option for consideration by SARS and the South African legislature. The introduction of an incentivised tax whistleblowing programme has several benefits. It could potentially assist SARS in achieving its strategic objectives to promote voluntary compliance by encouraging individuals to report tax non-compliance and evasion. The proposed programme could increase revenue collection, since whistleblowers provide information that can be used to recover unpaid taxes. The proposed programme also plays a role in the deterrence of non-compliant and evasion behaviour, since individuals and companies may be more cautious and less aggressive in their tax planning. In conclusion, the study highlights the potential benefits of such an incentivised tax whistleblowing programme and provides insight into the development of such a policy in South Africa. The study acknowledges the need for future research to develop the preliminary framework established in this thesis, so as to address the unique challenges within a South African context.
Essays on the role of banking and finance in the South African economy
Mncube, Keaoleboga Lucas (University of Pretoria, 2024-07-08)
The objective of the thesis is to analyse and understand the interaction between the banking sector and the economy in South Africa. To do so, we evaluate the historical evolution of productivity in the South African banking industry in chapter 2, by calculating a measure of productivity through a descriptive exercise. In chapter 3, we introduce labour dynamics of the banking industry by developing a model that links the productivity of the banking sector and macroeconomic outcomes. In chapter 4, we analyse how banking sector regulation affects the relationship between the banking sector and the macroeconomy and the contribution of banking sector regulation in determining efficiency of the sector.
The effect of institutions in the energy- growth -human development nexus
Venter, Alanda (University of Pretoria, 2024)
Abstract Climate change is one of the most significant market failures transpiring. Government intervention is required to correct this market failure to avoid catastrophic repercussions of the existential threat climate change poses. Governments have prioritised their energy sector given the commitments to transition to low-carbon economies. The energy sector faces many challenges, ranging from decreasing CO2 emissions, increasing energy access, and eradicating energy poverty to mitigating the effects of climate change. Governments need a framework to address and balance the complex climate change mitigation, sustainable economic growth, and human development issues. Leveraging effective institutions can assist in sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Effective institutions can be considered a crucial instrument for policymakers to reconcile climate change mitigation, economic growth, and human development policies into one framework that can be used to attain targeted outcomes concerning sustainable development goals (SDGs) and climate change goals. Utilizing panel data analysis as the methodological foundation, this thesis's chapters systematically investigate the influence exerted by institutional aspects upon various dimensions, including but not limited to the electricity sector, economic growth, CO2 emissions, and human development. The energy transition is crucial in ensuring a sustainable future for all. Electricity availability and generation capacity have a significant impact on the economies internationally (Saraji et al., 2023; Figueiredo et al., 2022) and are imperative towards attaining SDG’s. Given the law of supply, understanding the factors affecting the electricity supply sector is imperative towards improving the industry and achieving a sustainable energy future for all, as per the United Nations SDGs for 2030. The first part of the thesis focuses on institutions’ impact on the electricity supply of twenty countries, representing various electricity market structures and supply mixes. According to the thesis’s findings, institutional quality can potentially improve the accessibility of electricity supply and the achievement of efficiency benefits. Here, the thesis contributes to the existing body of knowledge by examining how six individual institutional aspects affect the electricity supply for 20 countries. In 2015, the COP21 countries made pledges to reduce CO2 emissions, focusing on decreasing emissions in the energy sector. CO2 emissions are determined by many factors, such as economic growth and institutions that implement policies affecting CO2 emissions directly and indirectly. This thesis examines the relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth and human development. The analysis of this question is twofold: first, an STIRPAT model is used to analyse the influence of population, affluence, technology and institutions on CO2 emissions. The analysis then examines the impact of institutional quality in the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth within a Rostow growth theory framework at different developmental stages. The thesis's contribution to the existing body of knowledge is Rostow’s growth theory framework, which crucially assisted in linking theoretical expectations with empirical results by thoroughly explaining the relationships that evolve between emissions, economic growth, and institutions for different stages of nations' income levels. The energy sector emissions indirectly affect human development through climate change. For many decades, countries have been experiencing the challenge of maintaining sustainable and inclusive human development while mitigating climate change. Climate change and human development cannot be isolated. Human development assists with the necessary skills and technological advancement to mitigate climate change, yet climate change can stagnate these advancement efforts. To ensure both goals regarding these issues are met, a mediator between them is necessary, and the institution's role as a possible mediator will be significant in combating these issues. Lastly, the thesis examines if institutional aspects can aid in the mitigation of CO2 emissions' effect on human development. The contribution of the thesis to the existing body of knowledge on human development and institutional quality by examining which of the six institutional aspects used in the study have the most significant impact in diminishing CO2 emissions impact on human development while accounting for the different inequalities in human development between different countries. This dissertation makes a two-fold contribution to the intellectual conversation around the energy field. First, it clarifies the complicated and complex impact of institutional quality aspects—which span a range of dimensions—on the development of the electricity industry. This includes a detailed investigation of the various institutional aspects within this context and an analysis of the overall impacts. Second, this study explores the complex web of connections between emissions, energy dynamics, and the expansion of human development. It goes beyond simple observation and attempts to understand the intricate interactions of variables that shape these relationships, focusing on identifying distinctive patterns and dynamics among nations with various income levels. This thesis further contributes to the literature by linking Rostow’s five stages of growth theory and the emissions-growth-institutions nexus. This comprehensive analysis deepens our understanding of the energy industry and sheds important light on the distinct opportunities and problems countries face at different economic development stages.
Portfolio optimisation using alternative risk measures
Lorimer, Douglas (University of Pretoria, 2023-06)
Markowitz’ Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) optimises the ratio of mean portfolio returns and portfolio risk in the form of the variance of returns, giving rise to criticism relating to, inter alia, minimising upside risk, the assumption of normally-distributed returns, and a failure to recognise heteroskedasticity. In addressing these criticisms, this research investigates the use of alternative risk measures to optimise risk and return in MPT investment strategies using non-parametric numerical methods to optimise portfolios comprising assets from the S&P 1200 and MSCI GICS world indices. It investigates, in particular, downside semivariance, downside semideviation, mean absolute deviation, semi-absolute deviation, value at risk and conditional value at risk. In addition, the study investigates optimisation using backward-looking and forward-looking risk measures through exponentially-weighted moving average forecasts of risk measures and return. In general, all the alternative risk measures investigated result in investment strategies with higher returns than traditional MPT variance-optimised strategies, with semi-absolute deviation-optimised strategies performing best of all. The introduction of risk and return forecasting does not materially impact on strategy performance.
Running events in a crisis context : a sport consumer marketing perspective
Frost, Bianca Lizelle (University of Pretoria, 2023-06-30)
English: In this thesis, Running events in a crisis context: a sport consumer marketing perspective, the candidate investigated emotional and behavioural aspects of sport event participation, specifically running events, prior to and during phases related to the unique COVID-19 crisis. The study was conducted in three parts, with the first two applying a novel netnography among an online community of marathon runners, utilising both inductive and deductive qualitative research methods. In the third part, a quantitative CHAID segmentation approach was employed. The first part focused on self-expressiveness and showed that event participants derive a deeper sense of happiness (or eudaimonia) from marathon event participation. This results in positive marketing outcomes, particularly positive authentic electronic word-of-mouth communication. The second part showed that brand love is enduring during a crisis, and the third part showed the potential for virtual running events across different segments. The study provides theoretical, practical and methodological contributions within the field of sport marketing and consumer behaviour. Sepedi: Mo theseseng ye, Go swara ditiragalo seemong sa mathata: pono ya papatšo ya bareki ba dipapadi, nkgetheng o nyakišišitše dikarolo tša maikutlo le boitshwaro tša go tšea karolo ditiragalong tša dipapadi, kudukudu go swara ditiragalo, pele ga le nakong ya dikgato tšeo di amanago le mathata a moswananoši a COVID-19. Thuto e dirilwe ka dikarolo tše tharo, ka tše pedi tša mathomo go dirišitšwe netnography ye mpsha setšhabeng sa bakitimi ba marathone wainthanete sa batamelane ba marathon, go šomišwa bobedi mekgwa ya nyakišišo ya boleng ya gokgobokanya dathaya maleba (inductive) le wa go thoma ka theori (deductive). Karolong ya boraro, go šomišitšwe mokgwa wa boleng wa karoganyo wa CHAID ya boleng. Karolo ya mathomo e be e lebišitšwe go boitlhalosong gomme e bontšhitše gore batšeakarolo ba tiragalo ba hwetša maikutlo a go tsenelela a lethabo (goba eudaimonia) ka go tšea karolo ditiragalong tša marathon. Se se feletša ka dipoelo tše botse tša papatšo, kudukudu kgokagano ye botse ya nnete ya elektroniki ya kgokagano ya molomo. Karolo ya bobedi e bontšhitše gore lerato la leina le a swarelela nakong ya mathata, gomme karolo ya boraro e bontšhitše kgonagalo ya go swara ditiragalo tša go bonwa dikarolo tše di fapanego. Thuto e fana ka meneelo ya teori, ya tirišo le ya mokgwa ka gare ga lefapha la papatšo ya dipapadi le boitshwaro bja bareki. Afrikaans: In hierdie proefskrif, Running events in a crisis context: a sport consumer marketing perspektief, het die kandidaat emosionele en gedragsaspekte van sportbyeenkomsdeelname, spesifiek hardloopgeleenthede, voor en tydens fases wat verband hou met die unieke COVID-19-krisis ondersoek. Die studie is in drie dele uitgevoer, met die eerste twee wat 'n nuwe netnografie toegepas het onder 'n aanlyn gemeenskap van marathon hardlopers, wat beide induktiewe en deduktiewe kwalitatiewe navorsingsmetodes gebruik het. In die derde deel is 'n kwantitatiewe CHAID-segmenteringsbenadering gebruik. Die eerste deel het gefokus op selfuitdrukking en het getoon dat deelnemers 'n dieper gevoel van geluk (of eudaimonia) uit marathonbyeenkomsdeelname put. Dit lei tot positiewe bemarkingsuitkomste, veral positiewe outentieke elektroniese mond-tot-mond-kommunikasie. Die tweede deel het getoon dat handelsmerkliefde tydens 'n krisis duursaam is, en die derde deel het die potensiaal vir virtuele hardloopgeleenthede oor verskillende segmente getoon. Die studie lewer teoretiese, praktiese en metodologiese bydraes binne die veld van sportbemarking en verbruikersgedrag. isiZulu: Kule thisisi, Izehlakalo zokugijima ngesikhathi sobungozi : umbono wokumaketha ezemidlalo womthengi, ikhandidethi iphenya izibonakaliso ngokozwelo kanye nokuziphatha ekubambeni iqhaza esehlakalweni sezemidlalo, ikakhulukazi ezehlakalweni zokugijima, ngaphambi kanye nangesikhathi samazinga ayehambisana nobungozi obukhethekile be-COVID-19. Ucwaningo lwenziwe ngezingxenye ezintathu, ezimbili zokuqala zisebenzisa indlela entsha yokucwaninga ngwkhompyutha (inetnografi) yenoveli phakathi komphakathi we-inthanethi wabagijimi bemijaho emide, kusetshenziswa izindlela zombili zokwenza ucwaningo, esingathi efundisayo nehlaziyayo ukuze ifinyelele ezinqumeni. Engxenyeni yesithathu, indlela yezingxenye esezingeni ye-CHAID iye yasetshenziswa. Ingxenye yokuqala yayiqondiswe ekuzethuleni komuntu uqobo lwakhe yaphinde yabonisa nokuthi ukubamba iqhaza kuzehlakalo zemarathoni zenza umuntu athole umuzwa ojulile wokujabula (noma i-eudaimonia) evela ekubambeni iqhaza esehlakalweni semarathoni. Loku kwaba nemiphumela yezokumaketha emihle (ephosethivi), ikakhulukazi ukuxhumana ngokuzwa kushiwo ngomlomo okuyiqiniso okuhle kwe-elekhthroniki. Ingxenye yesibili yabonisa ukuthi ukuthanda ibhrendi kuyaqina ngesikhathi sobungozi, bese ingxenye yesithathu ibonise amandla izehlakalo zokugijima okubonakalayo ezinawo ngokuphambana kwezingxenye ezihlukahlukene. Lolu cwaningo luhlinzeka ulwazi lwethiyori, lokusebenzisa kanye nolwendlela yokwenza ngaphakathi komkhakha wezokuziphatha kwabathengi kanye nokumaketha ezemidlalo.
Geocoded analysis of the determinants of socio-political unrest in South Africa
Le Roux, Danie (University of Pretoria, 2024-01-10)
Protests have severe negative short and long-run impacts on the developing South African economy. They have caused significant increases in costs and losses in productivity for crucial South African industries, leading to declining growth rates and further increases in unemployment and poverty. The focus of this study was to examine how service delivery, income level, and political satisfaction affect the intensity of unrest in South Africa. Secondary geocoded data from the GDELT project and Afrobarometer was utilised to construct composite indices to analyse the relationships between unrest intensity and its predictors. In line with the predictions of Frustration-Aggression Theory and studies conducted by Kali (2023), Nleya (2011), and Botes (2018), the study revealed a positive linear relationship between poor service delivery and unrest intensity. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the complex dynamics between unrest and its determinants. Policymakers and stakeholders can leverage this understanding to address underlying issues effectively and work towards mitigating and reducing socio-political unrest. The study’s framework, utilizing GDELT data, can also be applied to investigate unrest in other countries, benefiting from the broad global coverage provided by GDELT.
Essays on gender : impostor feelings, team composition, and pay gaps
Pleace, Michelle Anne (University of Pretoria, 2023-08)
Since the second wave of feminism started in the 1960s, women have made progress in the labour force. However, persistent challenges such as low representation in specific fields, limited access to high-ranking positions, and the gender pay gap continue to hinder gender equality. Overcoming these inequalities is crucial for empowering women and challenging societal norms. In this dissertation, we use different methods to investigate how the illusion of feeling incompetent, gender biases around working in teams with women, and the gender wage gap contribute to the challenges faced by women. Firstly, we use anchoring vignettes in a survey to examine whether impostor feelings, characterised by individuals mistakenly perceiving themselves as incompetent despite external evidence of success, discourage women from pursuing fields where they are traditionally underrepresented, such as academia. We observe a negative relationship between impostor feelings and the likelihood of students pursuing further studies. This limits human capital accumulation which can perpetuate gender disparities in the labour market. Secondly, we use a university-based field experiment to explore whether gender perceptions influence team relations and performance. We note a lower willingness to work in randomly assigned teams that have more women, despite majority-female teams outperforming other team types. Since individuals that are less included in their team have fewer opportunities to build upon their human capital, bias against having more women in a team can limit women’s career progression. Lastly, we look at the broader effects of gender inequality, specifically the gender pay gap. Using administrative data pertaining to South Africa’s formal economy, we find that the income differential by gender widened from 2008 to 2021. This lower pay negatively impacts women’s economic autonomy. Also, we note that the gender pay gap is largest at the 90th percentile of the income distribution in high-skill sectors suggesting women earn less than men at top-level management positions. These findings together highlight that women still struggle with gender equality in the labour market.
Uncertainty related to infectious diseases and forecastability of the volatility of financial assets
Shiba, Sisa (University of Pretoria, 2022)
English: In the context of the great turmoil in the financial markets caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, we examine the predictability of the US Treasury securities (Chapter 2), international stocks (Chapter 3), foreign exchange rates and Bitcoin (Chapter 4) and agricultural commodity futures (Chapter 5) given daily infectious diseases-related uncertainties (EMVID) using the heterogonous autoregressive volatility (HAV-RV) model. On stationary intraday data computed from a 5-minute interval, we conduct a recursive out-of-sample forecast. Through the RMSFE metric, our results provide evidence that these financial assets remain attractive to investors within the pandemic episode, with Bitcoin obtaining significantly high forecast gains among all the other assets in the medium and long forecast horizons. The US Treasury securities remain risk-free and the worldwide recognition of gold as a “safe haven” asset is emphasised. Among the agricultural traded commodities, cocoa and oats futures had significant forecast gains. The international stocks in Pakistan and Singapore appeared to be the most volatile. It is also evident that an econometrician can acquire the highest forecast gain in the Swiss Franc futures in the foreign exchange market. In Chapter 6, we use annual data on real gold returns and the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases over the period 1258 to 2020, we detect nonlinearity and regime changes in the relationship between the two variables of concern. We rely on a quantile regression model to show that real gold returns can hedge against the risks associated with such rare disasters (COVID-19), primarily when the market is in its bullish state, with it being negatively impacted in its bearish state. By assessing the role of contagious diseases on these financial assets’ returns we find strong evidence that contagious diseases play an important role in forecasting their RV. Understandably, our results have important portfolio implications for investors, speculators and portfolio managers during periods of high levels of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases. Sepedi: Ka seemong sa mathata a magolo ka mebarakeng ya ditšhelete ao a bakilwego ke go phulega ga COVID-19, re lekola go akanyega ga ditšhireletšo tša Kgoro ya Matlotlo ya US (Kgaolo ya 2), ditoko tša boditšhabatšhaba (Kgaolo ya 3), dikelo tša neelano ya dinaga tša ka ntle le Bitcoin (Kgaolo ya 4) le bokamoso bja ditšweletšwa tša temo (Kgaolo ya 5) ka lebaka la tlhokego ya bokgoni bja malwetši a go feta a ka mehla (EMVID) ka go šomiša mokgwa wa kotsi ya poelomorago ya maitirišo wa makala a mantši (HAV-RV). Go tshedimošo ya go se fetoge ya magareng ga matšatši yeo e dirišwago khomphutheng go tšwa go sebaka sa metsotso ye 5, re dira kakanyo ya ka ntle ga sampole ya tokollo. Ka go diriša methriki wa RMSFE, dipoelo tša rena di fa bohlatse bja gore dithoto tše tša ditšhelete di dula di kgahliša go babeeletši ka gare ga nako ya leuba, fao Bitcoin e hwetšago kudu dikhwetšo tša kakanyo ya godimo gareng ga dithoto ka moka tše dingwe ka go dihoraesone tša kakanyo ya magareng le ya lebaka le letelele. Ditšhireletšo tša Kgoro ya Matlotlo ya US di dula di hloka dikotsi gomme go lemoga gauta lefaseng ka bophara bjalo ka thoto ya “polokego” e a gatelelwa. Magareng ga ditšweletšwa tša temo tšeo go gwebišanwago ka tšona, cocoa le outsu di bile le dikhwetšo tše kgolo tša kakanyo. Ditoko tša boditšhabatšhaba ka Pakistan le ka Singapore di tšweletše di le kotsing kudu. Gape go molaleng gore mošomi wa kelo ya tša ekonomi a ka kgona go hwetša khwetšo ya kakanyo ya godimodimo ka bokamosong bja tšhelete ya Franc ka Switzerland ka mmarakeng wa neelano le dinaga tša ka ntle. Ka go Kgaolo ya 6, re šomiša tshedimošo ya ngwaga ka ngwaga ka ga dipoelo tša mmakgonthe tša gauta le kgonagalo ya mathata ka lebaka la malwetši a go fetela mo lebakeng la 1258 go fihla ka 2020, re hwetša gore go na le seemo sa go selekanele le diphetogo tša taolo ka kamanong magareng ga diphapano tše pedi tša tlhobaboroko. Re tshephile mokgwa wa poelomorago wa khwanthaele go laetša gore dipoelo tša mmakgonthe tša gauta di ka laetša thulano kgahlanong le dikotsi tše di amanago le mathata ao a sego a tlwaelega (a COVID-19), kudukudu ge mmaraka o le seemong sa ona sa go ba le tshepho, gomme o amilwe gampe ke seemo sa yona sa go phuhlama. Ka go sekaseka tema ye e kgathwago ke malwetši a go fetela go dipoelo tše tša dithoto tša ditšhelete re hwetša bohlatse bjo bo tiilego bja gore malwetši a go fetela a raloka tema ye bohlokwa go akanyetša RV ya ona. Ka fao go kwešišegago, dipoelo tša rena di na le diabe tše bohlokwa tša phothefolio go babeeletši, go baakanyi le go balaodi ba diphothefolio ka dinakong tša maemo a godimo a tlhokego ya bokgonthe ye e amantšhwago le malwetši a go fetela. Afrikaans: In die konteks van die groot onrus in die finansiële markte wat deur die COVID-19-uitbreking veroorsaak is, ondersoek ons die voorspelbaarheid van die Amerikaanse tesourie-effekte (hoofstuk 2), internasionale aandele (hoofstuk 3), buitelandse wisselkoerse en bitcoin (hoofstuk 4) en landboukommoditeitstermynkontrakte (hoofstuk 5) gegewe daaglikse aansteeklike siektesverwante onsekerhede (EMVID) met behulp van die heterogene outoregressiewe model van gerealiseerde wisselvalligheid (HAV-RV). Op stasionêre intradagdata wat vanaf 'n 5-minuut-interval bereken word, voer ons 'n rekursiewe buitesteekproefvoorspelling uit. Deur die RMSFE-metriek lewer ons resultate bewys dat hierdie finansiële bates aantreklik bly vir beleggers binne die pandemie-episode, met bitcoin wat aansienlik hoë voorspelde winste behaal onder al die ander bates in die medium- en lang voorspellingshorisonne. Die Amerikaanse tesourie-effekte bly risikovry en die wêreldwye erkenning van goud as 'n "veilige hawe"-bate word beklemtoon. Onder die landbouhandelkommoditeite het kakao- en hawertermynkontrakte beduidende voorspelde winste getoon. Die internasionale aandele in Pakistan en Singapoer het die wisselvalligste voorgekom. Dit is ook duidelik dat 'n ekonometrikus die hoogste voorspelde wins in die Switserse frank-termynkontrakte van die buitelandse valutamark kan behaal. In hoofstuk 6 gebruik ons jaarlikse data oor reële goudopbrengste en die waarskynlikheid van sterfte as gevolg van aansteeklike siektes oor die tydperk 1258 tot 2020. Ons bespeur nielineariteit en regimeveranderinge in die verhouding tussen die twee veranderlikes van belang. Ons maak staat op 'n kwantielregressiemodel om te wys dat reële goudopbrengste verskansing kan bied teen die risiko's wat verband hou met sulke seldsame rampe (COVID-19), hoofsaaklik wanneer die mark in styg, en dit negatief beïnvloed wanneer dit daal. Deur die rol van aansteeklike siektes op hierdie finansiële bates se opbrengste te bepaal, vind ons sterk bewyse dat aansteeklike siektes 'n belangrike rol speel in die voorspelling van hul RV. Dit is te verstane dat ons resultate belangrike portefeulje-implikasies het vir beleggers, spekulante en portefeuljebestuurders gedurende periodes van hoë vlakke van onsekerheid wat verband hou met aansteeklike siektes.
A proposed framework for supply chain analytics using customer data
Phadi, Nteboheng Pamella (University of Pretoria, 2022)
The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events have called for a need to re-evaluate methodologies for Supply Chain Risk management. Significant investment in supply chain technology has resulted in data being generated throughout the value chain. Customer data, specifically, is of interest in order to establish customer-centricity and an enhanced customer journey. However, the transformation of this data to insight is not obvious for some organisations. Forecasting models are typically used to inform decision-making, mitigate risks and enlighten policymakers. This thesis aims to address this challenge by proposing a set of capabilities that will enhance the integration of the supply chain network to its customer data. Given this context, two methodologies were used to address the research problem; (i) multinational petrochemicals company was considered for our case study and a web-based survey was distributed among key stakeholders at their head offices in South Africa. A structured equation model (SEM) was constructed to empirically test the proposed relationships among the constructs, specifically: People, Process and Technology capabilities; (ii) The macro-economic factors that drive customer demand also considered. Increasing crude oil prices have increased logistics costs and have incited the deglobalization of supply chain operations. A novel petroleum forecasting model is also proposed, particularly focusing on the forecasting on South Africa’s petrol and diesel consumptions. The model uses indices for Brent crude oil price (ZAR), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Rand to Dollar exchange rate, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Business Confidence Index (BCI) data as input data. Overall, this study suggests that in order to effectively serve their customers, organisations need to establish a culture of customer centricity that is underpinned by appropriate supply chain analytics techniques. The predictive model further highlights the need to establish the relationship between the organisation’s supply chain and micro and macro-economic drivers.
The self-fulfilling prophecy of uncertainty : a study on the impact of uncertainty and contagion on economic outcomes and policy
Van der Westhuizen, Chevaughn (University of Pretoria, 2022-04)
English: Economic globalisation has ushered in the integration of world financial markets, and the degree of interconnectedness has never been greater. In the face of a resurgence in global risks from trade, geopolitical tensions and global health risks, such as the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been an increasing focus on the impact of uncertainty on economic outcomes. Overall, uncertainty has been found to have significant negative impact on economies with the potential to compound recession and hinder economic recovery. The principal objective of this study is to address the impact of uncertainty and contagion on economic outcomes and policy in the South African context through a broad focus on the key markets – including the stock market, the currency market and the goods market – with particular focus on non-linear modelling and asymmetric effects, where the sign and size of a shock or uncertainty within markets have different impacts. In order to meet this objective, this study first investigates the interdependence and volatility transmissions and contagion between the stock and currency markets through a bivariate Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) framework. This approach is used to allow for asymmetric effects of the shocks, allowing both the size and the sign of the shock to have different impacts. The impact of COVID-19 on the transmission mechanism is also explored. The outcomes from this analysis provide strong evidence in support of the “stock-orientated” approach, where significant price and volatility spillovers propagate from the stock market into the foreign exchange market, whilst evidence of the “flow-orientated” approach is seen in the second moment, and significant shock and asymmetric spillovers from the exchange to the stock market are found. The results support the asymmetric and long-range persistence volatility spillover effect and show strong evidence of contagion between stock and foreign exchange markets. These spillovers became more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, confirming heightened contagion in these markets during periods of crisis. Secondly, attention turns to the goods market. The inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus is investigated through GARCH and GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) models to establish whether inflation uncertainty is a self-fulfilling prophecy, i.e., does higher inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation and vice versa? The empirical outcomes from this study suggest the existence of a bidirectional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, with stronger evidence in support of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis which states that heightened levels of inflation induce higher uncertainty about future inflation and weaker evidence in favour of the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis that proposes a reverse causation. The study also finds that inflation targeting has contributed significantly to reducing the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty. The Rossi-Wang (2019) time-varying Granger causality testing, which is robust in the presence of instabilities, further provides interesting insight into the relationship  notably that both the Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses break down during the inflation targeting period, which further hints towards the efficacy of inflation targeting as monetary policy framework. Finally, the thesis determines how high and low states of uncertainty in the three key domestic markets – the stock market, currency market and goods market – and uncertainty in the global market impact the effectiveness of monetary policy in South Africa. High and low uncertainty states in the markets are examined by employing sign-restriction and the Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) analysis. This framework is particularly appealing in that it allows for estimating the economy’s response conditional on uncertainty states in the different markets. Impulse response analysis reveals that monetary policy is less effective in high uncertainty states in the different markets. Overall, the study attempts to inform policy in the face of uncertainty. Sepedi: Kamano ya tša ekonomi lefaseng ka bophara e tlišitše kopanyo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete ya lefase, gomme maemo a kgokaganommogo ga se ya ka ya ba ye kgolo ka tsela ye. Seemong sa tsošološo ya dikotsi tša lefase ka bophara go tšwa go kgwebišano, dithulano tša dipolotiki tša dinaga le dikotsi tša maphelo lefaseng ka bophara, go swana le go phulega ga bolwetši bja COVID-19, go bile le koketšego ya nepišo go seabe sa tlhokego ya bonnete go dipoelo tša ekonomi. Ka kakaretšo, tlhokego ya bokgonthe e hweditšwe gore e na le seabe se segolo sa go se loke go diekonomi seo se kgonago go oketša go phuhlama ga ekonomi le go šitiša tsošološo ya ekonomi. Maikemišetšomagolo a dinyakišišo tše ke go rarola seabe sa tlhokego ya bokgonthe le phetetšo ya dipoelo tša ekonomi le melawana ka seemong sa Afrika Borwa ka go diriša nepišokakaretšo ka ga mebaraka ye bohlokwa - go akaretšwa mebaraka ya setoko, mmaraka wa ditšhelete le mmaraka wa dithoto - go nepišitšwe kudu mohlala wa go se lekanele le diabe tša go se lekanele, fao leswao la bogolo bja mathata goba bja tlhokego ya bokgonthe ka gare ga mebaraka le nago le diabe tše di fapafapanego. Gore di kgone go fihlelela maikemišetšo a, dinyakišišo tše di nyakišiša kamanommogo le go ba kotsing ga diphetišetšo le phetetšo magareng ga mebaraka ya setoko le ditšhelete ka go diriša motheo wa makala a mabedi a Heterosetasithi ya Maemo a Poelomorago ya Maitirišo ya Kakaretšo ya Ekseponenšiale (EGARCH). Mokgwa wo o šomišwa go dumelela diabe tša go se lekanele tša mathata, go realo e le go dumelela bogolo le leswao la bothata gore a be le diabe tše di fapanego. Seabe sa COVID-19 go mokgwa wa phetišetšo le ona o a lekolwa. Dipoelo go tšwa go tshekatsheko ye di hlagiša bohlatse bjo bo tiilego go thekga mokgwa "wo o theilwego go setoko", fao theko ye kgolo le go fetela ga dikotsi go hlohleletšago go tšwa go mmaraka wa setoko ka go mmaraka neelano, mola e le gore mohlala wa mokgwa wo o "ithekgile go kelo" o bonwa ka go lebaka la bobedi, le diphetelo tše kgolo tša mathata le tša go se lekanele go tšwa go neelano go ya go mmaraka wa setoko di a hwetšagala. Dipoelo di thekga seabe sa phetogelo ya kotsi ya go ganelela ya go se lekanele le ya lebaka la letelele ebile di laetša bohlatse bjo bo tiilego bja phetetšo magareng ga mebaraka ya setoko le ya neelano ya dinaga tša ka ntle. Diphetogelo tše di thomile go bonagala kudu ka nakong ya leuba la COVID-19, gomme se sa tiišetša phetetšo ka mo mebarakeng ye ka dinakong tša mathata. Sa bobedi, šedi ya lebišwa go mmaraka wa dithoto. Kamano ya go hloka bokgonthe magareng ga mmaraka le mebaraka ye mengwe e a nyakišišwa ka go diriša mekgwa ya GARCH le GARCH ka go bonnyane (GARCH-M) ka go nyaka go tseba ge eba go hloka bokgonthe bja infoleišene ke tlhologelo ya go iphethagatša, ke gore, naa tlhokego ya bokgonthe ya godingwana ya infoleišene e feletša ka infoleišene ya godingwana le ka go gongwe? Dipoelo tša dinyakišišo go tšwa ka mo dinyakišišong tše di šišinya gore go na le kamano ya mahlakore a mabedi magareng ga infoleišene le tlhokego ya bokgonthe ka infoleišene, fao go nago le bohlatse bjo bo tiilego go thekga haephothesese ya Friedman-Ball yeo e bolelago gore maemo a godimo a infoleišene a baka tlhokego ya bokgonthe ya godingwana ka ga infoleišene ya ka moso le bohlatse bjo bo fokolago bjo bo thekgago haephothesese Cukierman-Meltzer ye e šišinyago pako ya poelomorago. Dinyakišišo di hwetša gape gore go nepiša infoleišene go bile le seabe se segolo go fokotšeng ga maemo a infoleivene le tlhokego ya bokgonthe ka ga infoleišene. Teko ya bothata bja phapantšho ya nako ya Rossi-Wang (2019) ye e thekgwago ke Granger, yeo e tiilego ge go na le maemo ao a tekatekago, e tšwela pele go fa tsebo ye e kgahlišago ka go kamano - se ka bobedi ka ge haephothesese ya Friedman-Ball le Cukierman-Meltzer e arogana ka nakong ya nepišo ya infoleišene, yeo e tšwelago pele go eletša mabapi le go šoma gabotse ga nepišo ya infoleišene bjalo ka motheo wa melawana ya dipolelo. Sa mafelelo, thesese e laetša gore ke maemo afe a godimo le a fase a go hloka bokgonthe ka mebarakeng ye meraro ye bohlokwa ya ka nageng - mmaraka wa setoko, mmaraka wa ditšhelete le mmaraka wa dithoto - le tlhokego ya bokgonthe ka go mmaraka wa lefase ka bophara di ama go šoma gabotse ga melawana ya dišhelete ka Afrika Borwa. Maemo a tlhokego ya bokgonthe a godimo le a fase ka mebarakeng a lekolwa ka go diriša tshekatsheko ya mollwane wa maswao le VAR ya go Kopanywa ya Boikgahlišo (SEIVAR). Motheo wo o tloga o na le boipilet(SEIVARo ka gore o dumelela go akanya phetolo ya ekonomi yeo e laolwago ke maemo a go hloka bonnete ka mebarakeng ye e fapafapanego. Phetolo ya boikgahlišo e utolla gore melawana ya ditšhelete ga e šome gabotse ka maemong a tlhokego ya bokgonthe ya godimo ka mebarakeng ye e fapanego. Ka kakaretšo, dinyakišišo di leka go laetša melawana ka seemong sa tlhokego ya bokgonthe. Afrikaans: Ekonomiese globalisering het die integrasie van wêreld finansiële markte ingelui, en die mate van onderlinge verbondenheid was nog nooit groter nie. In die lig van 'n herlewing van globale risiko's as gevolg van handel, geopolitieke spanning en globale gesondheidsrisiko's, soos die uitbreking van COVID-19, is daar 'n toenemende fokus op die impak van onsekerheid op ekonomiese uitkomste. Oor die algemeen is bevind dat onsekerheid 'n beduidende negatiewe impak op ekonomieë het, met die potensiaal om 'n resessie te vererger en ekonomiese herstel te belemmer. Die hoofdoelwit van hierdie studie is om die impak van onsekerheid en oordraagbaarheid op ekonomiese uitkomste en beleid in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks aan te spreek deur 'n breë fokus op die sleutelmarkte – insluitend die aandelemark, die valutamark en die goederemark – met besondere fokus op nielineêre modellering en asimmetriese effekte, waar die teken en grootte van 'n skok of onsekerheid binne markte verskillende impakte het. Om hierdie doelwit te bereik, ondersoek die studie eers die interafhanklikheid en wisselvalligheidsoordragte en oordraagbaarheid tussen die aandele- en valutamarkte deur middel van 'n tweeveranderlike eksponensiële veralgemeende outoregressiewe voorwaardelike heteroskedastisiteit (EVORVH)-raamwerk. Hierdie benadering word gebruik om asimmetriese effekte van die skokke toe te laat, sodat dit sowel die grootte as die teken van die skok toelaat om verskillende impakte te hê. Die impak van COVID-19 op die oordragmeganisme word ook ondersoek. Die uitkomste van hierdie ontleding verskaf sterk bewyse ter ondersteuning van die "aandeelgeoriënteerde" benadering, waar beduidende prys- en wisselvalligheidsoordragte van die aandelemark na die buitelandse valutamark versprei, terwyl bewyse van die "vloeigeoriënteerde" benadering in die tweede oomblik gesien word, en beduidende skok- en asimmetriese oordragte van die beurs na die aandelemark gevind word. Die resultate ondersteun die asimmetriese en volgehoue langtermyn wisselvalligheidoorspoeleffek en toon sterk bewyse van besmetting tussen aandele- en valutamarkte. Hierdie oorspoele het meer prominent geword tydens die COVID-19-pandemie, wat verhoogde oordraagbaarheid in hierdie markte gedurende krisistye bevestig. Tweedens word die aandag gevestig op die goederemark. Die inflasie-inflasie-onsekerheid-neksus word ondersoek deur middel van GARCH- en GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) modelle om vas te stel of inflasie-onsekerheid 'n selfvervullende profesie is, d.w.s. lei hoër inflasie-onsekerheid tot hoër inflasie en andersom? Die empiriese uitkomste van hierdie studie dui op die bestaan van 'n tweerigtingverwantskap tussen inflasie en inflasie-onsekerheid, met sterker bewyse ter ondersteuning van die Friedman-Ball-hipotese wat beweer dat verhoogde vlakke van inflasie hoër onsekerheid oor toekomstige inflasie veroorsaak en swakker bewyse ten gunste van die Cukierman-Meltzer-hipotese wat 'n omgekeerde oorsaaklikheid voorstel. Die studie bevind ook dat inflasieteikenstelling beduidend bygedra het tot die vermindering van die vlak van inflasie en inflasie-onsekerheid. Die Rossi-Wang (2019) tydveranderende Granger-oorsaaklikheidstoets, wat robuust is in die teenwoordigheid van onstabiliteite, bied verder interessante insig in die verhouding - veral dat beide die Friedman-Ball- en Cukierman-Meltzer-hipoteses gedurende die inflasieteikenperiode afbreek, wat verder dui op die doeltreffendheid van inflasieteikenstelling as monetêre beleidsraamwerk. Laastens bepaal die proefskrif hoe hoë en lae toestande van onsekerheid in die drie belangrikste binnelandse markte – die aandelemark, valutamark en goederemark – en onsekerheid in die globale mark die doeltreffendheid van monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika beïnvloed. Hoë en lae onsekerheidstoestande in die markte word ondersoek deur tekenbeperking en die "self-exciting interacted VAR" (SEIVAR-) ontleding te gebruik. Hierdie raamwerk is veral aantreklik omdat dit die beraming van die ekonomie se reaksie moontlik maak soos bepaal deuronsekerheidstoestande in die verskillende markte. Impulsresponsontleding toon dat monetêre beleid minder effektief is in hoë onsekerheidstoestande in die verskillende markte. Oor die algemeen poog die studie om beleid te beïnvloed in die lig van onsekerheid.

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