Research Articles (Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM))

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/1703

The Graduate School of Technology Management was established as a fourth school in the Faculty of Engineering, Built Environment and Information Technology with effect from 1 January 2007.

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Now showing 1 - 20 of 491

Insights on meat hygiene quality in global trade
Magwedere, Kudakwashe; Thopil, George Alex (Nature Research, 2026-06-03)
Animal protein trade increase underscores the need for robust sanitary systems in complex global supply chains. We analysed 15,797 microbiological records of enumerated Aerobic plate counts (APC) and generic E. coli from meat consignments at South African ports of entry. Data were log10-transformed and differences by country of origin and product type were tested with one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey’s post-hoc test (P < 0.05). Pearson correlations, statistical process control (SPC) charts, and process capability indices (Cp, Cpk, Cpm) were calculated relative to upper specification limits (APC: 1 × 106 CFU/g; E. coli: 1 × 103 CFU/g). Significant country-level differences in mean APC and E. coli were pronounced in poultry (p < 0.05). Moderate positive correlations between APC and E. coli were observed in poultry (r = 0.50), beef (r = 0.32), turkey (r = 0.27), and pork (r = 0.24), but non-significant in ovine meat (r = 0.06). SPC revealed upstream processes lacking statistical control, with multiple points outside ±3σ limits indicating special-cause variation. Capability was marginal (high Cp but low Cpk/Cpm) with poultry showing better Cpk than beef. APC and E. coli are effective complementary hygiene indicators, particularly for poultry and beef and SPC analysis of port-of-entry data uncovers supply-chain instabilities.
Market potential of biobased chemicals : a qualitative network analysis of adoption dynamics in South Africa’s bioeconomy
Mandree, Prisha; Thopil, George Alex; Ramchuran, Santosh (Wiley, 2026-03)
The premise of a bioeconomy is the replacement of nonrenewable and unsustainable fossil-derived resources and associated technologies with more sustainable alternatives. The adoption of biobased chemicals contributes toward the growth of a bioeconomy and is dependent on market and industry requirements. A network analysis-based qualitative study was conducted to understand the drivers and barriers that influence the adoption of biobased chemicals in South Africa, the largest and most industrialized economy in Africa. Stakeholders were selected based on their knowledge and experience in the biobased chemicals sector in South Africa and were interviewed on key themes that affect acceptance and adoption of biobased chemicals: business opportunities for biobased chemicals, market forces, product value chains, competitiveness, supply chain collaboration, financing, value chain governance, and policy. Network analysis identified bioethanol, lactic acid, and acetic acid as key products. Major drivers of the adoption of biochemicals included global market demand and the availability of biobased feedstock. Key barriers related to product price competitiveness and weaknesses in national policy implementation. The results indicate that substantial institutional investment across the biobased value chain is required to foster local and regional market demand.
Escalation instability in probability-impact matrices : evidence from capital projects
Meyer, Werner G. (Emerald, 2026-12)
PURPOSE : Probability-impact matrices are widely embedded in project governance systems and used to prioritise risks, allocate mitigation resources and trigger management escalation. This study examines whether commonly used qualitative risk matrices preserve relative risk prioritisation when compared to quantitative assessments of the same risks. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : The study analyses 1,144 paired qualitative and quantitative risk assessments from 91 mining capital projects across 43 organisations. Paired nonparametric tests, distributional comparisons, Wasserstein distance metrics and colour-band reclassification analysis are used to evaluate differences in probability ratings, impact ratings and composite risk scores. FINDINGS : Qualitative and quantitative probability ratings align at the ordinal level. In contrast, qualitative impact ratings and composite risk scores are systematically higher than their quantitative counterparts. Quantitative reassessment altered escalation colour bands in 73.3% of risks, with 59.4% moving to lower bands and 37.2% shifting by two or more categories, indicating material changes in prioritisation. These findings suggest that qualitative matrices do not reliably preserve escalation stability under alternative elicitation formats. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS : When escalation outcomes depend on representational format, risk-informed governance becomes structurally unstable. Hybrid configurations that separate qualitative communication from quantitative decision support can enhance decision quality and improve the robustness of prioritisation and contingency allocation. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : The study introduces escalation stability as a practical criterion for evaluating risk assessment tools and provides large-sample empirical evidence that elicitation format materially influences risk prioritisation in capital projects.
A new bi-objective quality-based construction supply chain framework : from purchasing to commissioning
Izadbakhsh, Maryam; Ghannadpour, Seyed Farid; Bagherpour, Morteza; Mahdavi-Mazdeh, Mohammad (Golden Light Publishing, 2026-06)
Many construction organizations struggle with limited resources and tight budgets for project execution. These firms often rely on non-renewable resources of inconsistent quality or perform summary task in ways that reduce costs but sacrifice accuracy. Consequently, the industry requires a quality management system that tackles resource selection, task performance, and cost control in a single framework. Prior studies addressed quality management in segmented sections of the project supply chain but rarely treated the entire sequence as an integrated process. This study develops a bi-objective linear programming model for a multi-project construction supply chain under two scenarios: one with a discount policy applied to selected suppliers and one without. The model covers every phase, from project initiation and resource procurement through task scheduling and final delivery. It aims to improve the quality of summary task performance, select non-renewable resources that meet specified thresholds, and reduce overall logistics costs by jointly integrating supplier selection, inventory management, summary-task scheduling, shared renewable resources, and quality within a single framework. In this formulation, the quality metric for each summary task corresponds to the level of technology applied; higher‐quality outcomes require more advanced equipment or methods. The two‐objective model is solved via the augmented ε-constraint method, and its results are demonstrated with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis examines how changes in cost coefficients and quality thresholds affect optimal decisions. Then, the applicability of the proposed model is illustrated through a numerical example, and its behavior is further examined by changing the key parameters. The results show that the proposed model reduces project delays and improves resource utilization by coordinating supplier selection, procurement timing, and summarytask scheduling within a unified decision-making framework. The analysis also identifies buying cost, ordering cost, inventory holding cost, and required non-renewable resources as the most influential parameters.
Systems-based organisational resilience framework : a Delphi study-based validation and verification
Manzini, Dumisani; Oosthuizen, Rudolph; Chikwanda, Hilda; Peach, Rina Helena (Wiley, 2026-04)
The increasing systemic complexity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has heightened the need for robust approaches to organisational resilience. Despite its growing prominence, resilience research remains fragmented, with limited consensus on core dimensions, causal interdependencies and mechanisms suitable for dynamic assessment. This study addresses these gaps by developing and validating an organisational resilience framework to support system dynamics modelling and resilience measurement. A structured two-round Delphi methodology was applied, engaging a functionally diverse panel of professionals spanning strategy, technology and information systems, risk and financial management, organisational resilience and people leadership. Following attrition, five experts completed the final round. Response convergence was assessed using response ratios and frequency distributions of expert ratings. Within the final panel, unanimous or high agreement was achieved on 94% of the proposed resilience dimensions. The validated framework integrates systems thinking to capture dynamic causal relationships among disruption, adaptability, digital transformation and situational awareness, enabling simulation, stress testing and identification of strategic leverage points. The findings offer practical value for organisational leaders, regulators and policymakers by supporting evidence-based resilience assessment and policy experimentation. Although empirically grounded in the South African financial sector, the framework is designed as a sector-agnostic, systems-based model applicable across diverse sociotechnical systems.
Construction industry professionals' perspectives on the barriers to timber adoption in Kenya
Kathambi, Elosy; Hassan, Ferdinand Senam; Grobbelaar, Schalk (Association of Schools of Construction of Southern Africa, 2025)
PURPOSE : This study investigates the barriers to the adoption of timber in the Kenyan construction industry despite the increasing prevalence of engineered wood and modern timber technologies around the world. DESIGN : The study utilised semi-structured interviews of stakeholders within the Kenyan construction industry to gather insights into the perceived barriers limiting the adoption of timber in Kenyan construction. FINDINGS : Key findings reveal that inconsistent timber treatment and supply chain inefficiencies undermine the viability of timber construction in Kenya, negatively influencing the perception of timber and, ultimately, market acceptance. Additionally, a lack of awareness about timber and societal biases associating timber with poverty and environmental concerns hinder broader adoption. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS / IMPLICATIONS : This study is limited to the perspectives of professionals, suggesting future studies explore broader societal views and assessments. VALUE : This study provides valuable insights into the perceptions and challenges surrounding timber construction in Kenya, offering practical recommendations for industry stakeholders.
PESTLE analysis of the factors affecting the sustainability and competitiveness of the South African sawmilling industry
Tshavhungwe, Vhuhwavho; Grobbelaar, Schalk (Bussecon International Academy, 2025-12)
The sawmilling industry in South Africa consists of both formal and informal sawmills. The operation of these sawmills and their associated operational costs often differ from one another. There is an urgent need to improve the competitiveness of the sawmilling industry; however, despite the various efforts from multiple stakeholders, the industry remains globally and even locally uncompetitive. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the factors affecting the competitiveness of the South African sawmill industry and how those factors impact the industry’s sustainable development. The study followed a qualitative approach, utilising semi-structured interviews with seven personnel from the South African sawmill industry. A non-probability purposive sampling method was used to choose participants for the study based on their positions. The study systematically applied the PESTLE framework. By examining the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the PESTLE factors affecting the competitiveness of the South African sawmilling industry, several key factors influencing the industry were identified. The findings highlighted that by examining the sawmilling industry holistically, stakeholders (including private, public, community, government, and academic sectors) can collaborate to address the challenges affecting the sawmilling industry. This can be achieved by incentivising compliance with the regulations that support sustainability and competitiveness in the sawmilling industry. Sawmills can examine the PESTLE factors and implement strategies accordingly. Actions that can be taken to improve the competitiveness of the industry include investing in advanced machinery and technology, strengthening regulatory oversight of informal sawmills, promoting forest management and certification and supporting SMEs with training and access to finance.
Innovation labs as third spaces for addressing anthropogenic climate change and intercultural issues in the Pan-African University
Bulgrin, Eva; Daniels, Chux (Routledge, 2026)
Intercultural and postcolonial perspectives are important in understanding the Anthropocene – a global concern that transgresses national boundaries. Empirical evidence shows that the countries in the Global South are disproportionately affected by the anthropogenic effects, which the Global North initiates. This inequality invites us to reflect on anthropogenic impacts from an intercultural and postcolonial perspective. Universities, as centres for intercultural education, are important actors in knowledge production and can offer spaces for negotiation in the pursuit of socio-ecological transformation, particularly in addressing social inequality and climate colonialism. The Pan-African University (PAU), a transnational university across Africa, presents a vision for a different form of organisation and epistemology, which is relevant for intercultural education needed to address the Anthropocene. This article focuses on the role of universities in addressing anthropogenic issues, exemplified by the PAU. It asks what contribution innovation labs provide for addressing anthropogenic and intercultural issues in this context.
The use of generative AI tools for students’ research support within higher education institutions’ libraries : a systematic literature review
Maphosa, Mfowabo; Tlomatsana, Cyril (University of Boras, 2026-05-15)
INTRODUCTION : The growth of the knowledge economy has led to the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in society, bringing opportunities and challenges in higher education. This study investigates the use of generative AI (genAI) tools for students’ research support within academic libraries and identifies emerging trends and research themes in the literature. METHOD : The PRISMA guidelines were applied to the Web of Science database to collect relevant publications: seventy-one publications were selected for analysis from 256 identified items. ANALYSIS : We used VOSViewer software to analyse the seventy-one publications. The keyword analysis through VOSViewer allowed the identification of the research hotspots and the research focus areas. RESULTS : The reviewed publications covered eighteen research areas, highlighting the interdisciplinary nature of generative AI. Three research clusters representing three research areas were identified using VOSViewer. First, generative AI is reshaping the learning experiences of students in higher education; secondly, the role of academic libraries is evolving to accommodate changes brought forth by such tools; and thirdly, ChatGPT and other chatbots are being used to improve reference services for students. CONCLUSION : This study highlights key trends, identifies research gaps, and suggests future directions for using generative AI tools within academic libraries to support students in their research activities, which could be extended into information literacy programmes.
Development of an open and frugal innovation roadmap to increase the diffusion of timber construction in Kenya
Kathambi, Elosy; Hassan, Ferdinand Senam; Grobbelaar, Schalk (Taylor and Francis, 2026)
The dominance of materials such as concrete and masonry continues to limit the use of timber products in Kenya’s construction industry. Yet, growing global concerns over the environmental impacts of these materials have intensified the need to adopt alternatives with lower energy intensity and carbon emissions. This study aimed to enhance the adoption of timber construction in Kenya by identifying barriers, assessing stakeholder perceptions, and proposing actionable solutions. Drawing on responses from 110 industry stakeholders, the study finds that while timber is viewed as a sustainable and attractive material for construction, concerns regarding its durability, fire safety, and regulatory limitations are significant barriers to its adoption. Increasing public awareness, improving training and skills development, and strengthening collaboration among industry professionals and policymakers are identified as key strategies for promoting timber adoption. The study applies principles of open and frugal innovation to develop practical recommendations that aim to strengthen the adoption of timber construction in Kenya. These recommendations are consolidated into an implementation roadmap that outlines strategies tailored to the local context, guiding industry stakeholders. The findings from this study align with Kenya’s sustainability goals, reinforcing the benefits of timber construction and ultimately promoting its adoption within the local context.
A dynamic model to sustain the spark : hw do network coordinators in Dutch healthcare networks maintain network commitment?
Roest , Manon; Van der Smissen, Doris; Mannak, Remco; Oerlemans, Leon A.G.; Weggelaar-Jansen, Anne Marie (Public Library of Science, 2025-07-22)
CONTEXT : In the Netherlands inter-organizational networks have been established to drive long-term healthcare improvement on a regional and national scale. Managing healthcare networks is challenging, especially in sustaining participants' active engagement. This study aims to empirically explore why participants' network commitment declined and how network commitment was managed by network coordinators. METHODS : We conducted an exploratory qualitative study using purposive sampling we held semi-structured interviews with representatives from 18 Dutch healthcare improvement networks. RESULTS : Respondents mentioned that allocated time and continued participant commitment was required to reach their goals. A key challenge was the decline in participant commitment over time due to misalignment of goals and needs, slow progress, lack of reciprocity, and resistance to change at the organizational level. Approaches to manage this were collaborative reassessment of goals and needs, expectation management, setting preconditions and fostering personal relationships. DISCUSSION : Our findings highlight the importance of strategic timing of managerial approaches and their interdependencies with social mechanisms. These insights contribute theoretically to Ring and Van de Ven's framework on developmental processes of cooperative interorganizational relationships and offer practical guidance for network managers aiming to maintain long-term commitment.
Exploring the impact of gamification on employee engagement and knowledge sharing during a merger : a case study of a South African advertising agency
Palunčić, Daniella (Routledge, 2026)
This study examines whether and how perceptions of a gamified knowledge-sharing platform were statistically associated with multidimensional employee engagement and knowledge-sharing behaviors during the merger of two South African advertising agencies. Drawing on gamification theory, Self-Determination Theory, and the three-dimensional model of employee engagement, the study tests a mediated framework linking gamification perceptions to behavioral, emotional, and cognitive engagement, and subsequently to knowledge sharing and perceived merger integration. Using cross-sectional survey data (N = 134) and structural equation modeling, results indicate that gamification perceptions were positively associated with all three engagement dimensions, with cognitive engagement demonstrating the strongest association with knowledge sharing. Knowledge sharing partially mediated the relationship between gamification perceptions and perceived merger integration. A cross-sectional explanatory design was adopted to examine theoretically derived associations within a single merger case context. Given the single-organization setting and moderate sample size, findings are interpreted as contextually bounded statistical associations rather than evidence of causal effects or broad generalizability. The study contributes through contextual validation and theoretical refinement by demonstrating how differentiated engagement mechanisms operate under merger-related uncertainty and by positioning knowledge sharing as a process linking digital intervention perceptions to integration outcomes in a knowledge-intensive setting.
Transformative innovation policy in energy transition and digitalization : a geopolitical and security perspective
Kivimaa, Paula; Daniels, Chux; Jayaram, Dhanasree (Oxford University Press, 2025)
Geopolitics and global security increasingly shape the conditions for energy innovation and innovation-industrial policies and, hence, also transformative innovation policy (TIP) that aims for systemic innovation generating environmentally and societally beneficial systemic change. Connections between TIP and security/geopolitics have been less explicit previously but have heightened after the global geopolitical context has become more turbulent, with many countries increasingly oriented to protectionism and narrow conception of security. This paper contributes to an emerging debate on TIP, security, and geopolitics, drawing examples from the energy and digital sectors. It centres on the core principle of TIP—directionality—to explore potential interconnections with geopolitics and security. It also provides an overview of the interconnections between transformative innovation and geopolitics/security in three continental contexts: energy transition in Europe and Asia, and digitalization in Africa. Via exploring the phenomenon in the three contexts, we find that, although increasing attention is given to directionalities towards environmental and social sustainability, the prioritization of economic growth and traditional security appear to undermine them. Directionality is essential for realizing sustainability in a world undergoing energy transitions and rapid digitalization. Yet, recent global security and geopolitics developments may mostly hinder TIP-based directionalities in practice, unless specific policy focus and experimentation is placed at finding and employing synergies.
Assessing the feasibility of structural timber construction in South Africa
Hassan, Ferdinand Senam; Grobbelaar, Schalk (Taylor and Francis, 2026)
This study assessed the feasibility of timber as a structural construction material in the South African construction industry by assessing the perspectives of industry stakeholders. Using an online survey, the study collected the views of 94 stakeholders. Respondents considered timber superior to brick, concrete, and steel in attributes such as ease of construction, speed of construction, and appearance. They considered timber similar in quality and durability to other materials but inferior in the local supply of materials and skillset. The study has also shown that negative perceptions of timber, the lack of skills and knowledge, and cost concerns are perceived barriers limiting timber adoption in South Africa. Recommendations for increased adoption of timber construction include the promotion of timber, pilot projects and training. This paper contributes to the expanding body of knowledge on timber and addresses the need for more literature on timber construction within the South African context. It also offers valuable insights into the differing perspectives of individuals with and without timber construction and design experience, providing a basis for further analysis.
Optimizing the distributed telecoms asset maintenance practice using blockchain and digital twin technologies
Okeyia, Charles; De Almeida, Nuno Marques; Amad-Echendu, Joe; Asongu, Simplice A. (Sage, 2026-02)
This article explores the potential of blockchain technology (BCT) and digital twins (DTs) to revolutionize the management of distributed telecom infrastructure assets in developing countries. By addressing the electricity supply challenge and enhancing asset maintenance, these technologies provide opportunities for the future of telecom infrastructure in these regions. Based on an empirical review using data from quantitative and qualitative approaches, including semi-structured interviews and survey questions, the results show that blockchain and DT technologies are not only promising but also significantly enhance the efficiency of optimizing distributed telecoms asset maintenance practices. These technologies enable predictive maintenance activities, real-time visibility, and escalation of asset functionality and faults, providing reassurance about their effectiveness.
Blockchain and digital technologies in the telecommunications industry
Okeyia, Charles; De Almeida, Nuno Marques; Amad-Echendu, Joe; Asongu, Simplice A. (Wiley, 2026-03)
This article examines how fourth industrial revolution (4IR) technologies, specifically blockchain and digital twin technologies, can be utilized to address the energy supply challenge and enhance the management of distributed telecom infrastructure assets in a research context. The emphasis is on how blockchain and digital twin technologies can be applied to improve asset maintenance activities. Following a systematic review of the existing literature and the development of a model, the research methodology involves the use of structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews—a mixed-methods approach based on operational data on the asset's functionality. The findings from the asset data suggest that the adoption of blockchain and digital twin technologies substantially enhances the effective functionality of assets installed in telecoms-based stations. However, the intricacy of integrating these 4IR technologies with conventional assets, as well as evidence from questionnaires and interviews, further suggests that they provide a foundation for the digitalization of maintenance methods, resulting in substantial improvements in operational and maintenance effectiveness and efficiency. The blockchain and digital twin technologies accelerate a predictive maintenance method by proactively identifying unexpected asset failures, thereby lowering mean time to repair and operating expenditures.
A scientometric analysis of science outputs and the political economy undergirding science in southern Africa
Nyamukachi, Pfungwa Michelle; Pouris, Anastassios (Springer, 2026)
This paper examines scientific knowledge production in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region over the period 2000 – 2022. Research productivity in the region is uneven, with South Africa contributing the majority of outputs, while other member states are marginal contributors. Health related fields account for the largest share of publications, followed by agriculture/environmental sciences, with engineering, energy and applied sciences underrepresented. Research collaboration is largely external, oriented toward Europe and the United States, while intra-African collaboration still limited. Structural challenges, including persistent underinvestment in research and development; weak research infrastructure, and human resource constraints, limit research efforts and research sovereignty. The study combines bibliometric analysis with an examination of the political economy of science, providing an integrated perspective rarely applied in regional analyses. By highlighting the critical role of sustainable domestic funding for research, talent development and stronger regional collaboration—the findings underscore the pressing need for policies to build more resilient and sovereign African research systems aligned with national and regional development goals.
The emotional drive towards entrepreneurship
Pettersen, Inger Beate; Van der Lingen, Elma; Åmo, Bjørn Willy (Sage, 2026)
Emotions are inherently embedded in the entrepreneurial process and are highly influential in driving entrepreneurship. The role of emotions in entrepreneurship education (EE) has also been documented, but knowledge is still scarce. This empirical study explores the role of emotion in EE in shaping students’ entrepreneurial competencies and identities. Through an exploration of Kolb’s learning styles (KLS), we empirically scrutinize the correlation between these styles—Doing, Observing, Reasoning, and Emotions—and students' confidence, control, and competence, as gauged by Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (ESE) and Entrepreneurial Identity Aspiration (EIA). The study addresses whether a relationship exists between KLS and ESE/EIA, and if specific learning styles, notably Emotions, influence students’ thinking and entrepreneurial behavior. While Doing, Reasoning, and Observing exhibit moderate or no linkages with ESE and EIA, Emotions emerge as a potent influencer, demonstrating a robust positive connection with both constructs. Emotions, as a preferred learning style, significantly relates to students' control, confidence (ESE), and aspirations to become entrepreneurs (EIA). This study sheds light on an underexplored intersection between students’ learning styles and entrepreneurial self-efficacy/identity, emphasizing the role emotions play in fostering entrepreneurial learning. The study also underscores the need for targeted pedagogical approaches that harness the influence of emotions in entrepreneurship education.
Life cycle assessment of external impacts and external costs of a potential offshore wind farm off the Southern African coast
Ibrahim, Hanif Auwal; Thopil, George Alex (Elsevier, 2025-10)
Southern Africa’s abundant untapped offshore wind resources present a promising opportunity for advancing the region’s transition to cleaner and affordable energy while mitigating climate change. Evaluating potential greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-GHG impacts, together with the life cycle costs associated with offshore wind farms, is critical in determining the overall sustainability of the energy system. By carrying out a life cycle assessment (LCA) of a potential 799.20 MW offshore wind farm, this study aims to fill existing gaps in literature. Findings from the study indicate that climate change impacts contribute 34.61 gCO2eq/kWh, while human health impacts are the most significant non-GHG impact at 0.49 g/kWh. The offshore wind farm’s total life cycle cost ranges from 4.29 to 5.97 ZAc/kWh (2.21–3.08 €/MWh), with a central cost of 5.30 ZAc/kWh (2.73 €/MWh). Lifecycle costs attributed to GHG costs (1.68 ZAc/kWh; 0.86 €/MWh) and human health costs (3.42 ZAc/kWh; 1.76 €/MWh) contribute to 96.5 % of the total central cost. External costs per unit of electricity generated are lower compared to other electricity generation technologies including onshore wind, due to the large generation capacity of the offshore wind farm.
Cash flow risk management across multiple construction projects using value at risk
Didar, Ensiyeh; Bazargan, Amirhossein; Bagherpour, Morteza (Emerald, 2026)
PURPOSE : Managing cash flow risk across multiple concurrent construction projects presents significant challenges due to inherent uncertainties and complexities, which can jeopardize a company’s financial stability and project success. This research aims to develop a robust and reliable model for effective cash flow prediction and risk management in the construction industry. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : We propose a novel framework that integrates value at risk (VaR) with simulation-based optimization techniques to quantify and manage the impact of various financial risks on cash flow across multiple projects. This robust predictive method combines theoretical and practical approaches, advancing existing cash flow management practices in construction project management and finance. FINDINGS : The study demonstrates that traditional cash flow management methods often fail to account for the cumulative risks in multi-project environments. Our approach effectively mitigates the adverse effects of financial volatility by providing a probabilistic assessment of potential losses, ensuring alignment of cash flows with established baselines and thereby improving project outcomes and financial resilience. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : This research makes a significant contribution by introducing an innovative method that applies VaR to construction cash flow management for multiple concurrent projects – a novel application in this context. By addressing the major difficulties of quantifying and managing financial risks in complex project portfolios, our approach offers new insights and practical tools for enhancing financial planning, risk management and overall resilience in the construction industry.

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