Theses and Dissertations (Financial Management)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/31808

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 68

Professional trait scepticism and behavioural bias in decision-making by financial professionals
(University of Pretoria, 2024-04) Hall, J.H. (John Henry); Enslin, Zack; charisa.deklerk@up.ac.za; De Klerk, Charisa
Professional scepticism has received attention from various stakeholders, such as policy-makers, regulators, practitioners, and the public, in the last few years. This interest was driven by various negative events which have been attributed to financial professionals’ failure to apply professional scepticism. Such incidents have damaged the reputation of the finance profession. This study investigates the relationship between the trait of professional scepticism and decision-making biases. It further examines how possible determinants, such as gender, age, experience, and personality traits, could play a role in financial professionals’ susceptibility to decision-making biases. The study adopted an empirical research design, using a quantitative data analysis approach. Data were collected primarily through questionnaires distributed to financial professionals accredited by the International Auditing and Assurance Board (IAASB) or the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA). Advanced statistical techniques, including structural equation modelling (SEM), were used to explore the relationship between the trait of professional scepticism and decision-making biases. The findings show the presence to a significant extent among financial professionals of confirmation bias, misconceptions of regression to the mean bias, conjunctive event bias, overconfidence bias, and affect bias. There was no significant relationship between the trait of professional scepticism and these biases. However, specific constructs within the trait of professional scepticism (such as a questioning mind, suspension of judgement, the search for knowledge, and self-determining) displayed significant positive (and in some instances negative) relationships with these biases. The results reveal that determinants such as gender, experience, and personality traits (such as extraversion and neuroticism) lead to both higher and lower susceptibility to certain decision-making biases among financial professionals. The present study contributes to the literature by providing evidence of the behavioural manifestation of the relationship between the trait of professional scepticism constructs and decision-making biases. These findings shed light on the effectiveness of some constructs of the trait of professional scepticism in making financial professionals less susceptible to decision-making biases. Conversely, instances were also identified where certain constructs could potentially aggravate decision-making biases. The findings offer valuable insights for policy-makers, regulators, and professional bodies such as the IAASB and the ACCA, emphasising the need for a comprehensive understanding of professional scepticism and its possible implications for decision-makers in the finance profession.
The influence of financial and non-financial sustainability on firm performance
(University of Pretoria, 2023-10-31) Du Toit, Elda; Hall, J.H. (John Henry); rhole.coetzee@up.ac.za; Coetzee, Rholé
The importance of the synergy between a firm’s financial and non-financial sustainability performance is becoming increasingly crucial due to the shift towards enhancing its financial and non-financial performance. The synergy involves maximising profit, enhancing companies’ reputations, fulfilling their social responsibility, and fostering a corporate culture of integrity and competence. Both the financial and non-financial dimensions of sustainability performance play pivotal roles in creating value for firms. In this study, the financial sustainability performance dimension encompassed three elements, namely growth opportunities, operational efficiency and innovation capabilities, measured using market to book value of equity, return on equity and research and development respectively. Similarly, the non-financial sustainability performance dimension consisted of three elements, namely environmental, social and governance, measured using the performance scores from the well-known Refinitiv Eikon database. This study adopted a multi-theoretic model to acknowledge the contributions of both financial and non-financial sustainability performance in creating an overall performance framework for firms. This approach integrated shareholder wealth maximisation theory, stakeholder theory, resource dependence theory and organisational legitimacy theory. The study investigated the relationships between financial and non-financial sustainability performance and firm performance, measured using five proxies of measurement, namely Tobin’s Q, total shareholder return, weighted average cost of capital, market value added and economic value added. A deeper understanding of these relationships was obtained by considering the interaction effects among the three elements within each dimension of sustainability performance, demonstrating their potential to enhance firm performance. To analyse the data, the estimated generalised least squares (EGLS) method was applied to the regression model, with period seemingly unrelated regression weightings and using White (diagonal) standard errors and covariance estimation methods. Therefore, the problems associated with autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity were mitigated. Regression analyses were conducted on the data for each of the five dependent variables representing firm performance. In addition to the regression analyses, the change in variance contribution of each independent variable was examined to identify the variable that explained the largest percentage of variation of the dependent variable in the regression models. Interaction terms were then introduced to the regression models to account for the overall interaction between financial and non-financial sustainability performance, as well as the interaction between individual elements within each dimension. This analysis covered a full sample of firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2021. The results of the study indicated that the performance of a firm was most profoundly influenced by its financial sustainability performance. On its own, non-financial sustainability performance did not exert a significant influence on firm performance. The combined influence of financial and non-financial sustainability suggested that the pursuit of non financial sustainability efforts could potentially detract from firm performance because these efforts involved reallocating funds from shareholders to other stakeholders. However, the effects of non-financial sustainability initiatives became more evident when they interacted with financial sustainability performance.
The impact of news on the South African sovereign bond market
(University of Pretoria, 2022) Brummer, L.M., 1940-; Van Schalkwyk, Cornelis Hendrik; ann.vanderwesthuizen@up.ac.za; Van der Westhuizen, Elizabeth-Ann
A reverse event study approach is used to investigate how the South African sovereign bond yield curve react to headline news. Abnormal return dates in the zero-coupon yields are identified using GARCH models on the daily return series and news items that are classified into categories using supervised machine learning. A regression model is fitted to determine the link between the abnormal daily returns and news categories. The results indicate that for abnormal increases in returns, indicating an increase in yield (negative news) the entire yield curve was impacted by political news and the medium term (5-year) was also impacted by international news. For abnormal decreases in returns, indicating a decrease in yields (positive news) political news had the greatest impact on the long end (15-and 20-year) of the yield curve, and economic news had the greatest impact on the medium term (10-year).
Performance persistence of South African unit trust funds
(University of Pretoria, 2021-10) Van Schalkwyk, Cornelis Hendrik; Louw, Elbie; francois.smith10@gmail.com; Smith, Francois
The optimality of active or passively managed investment fund alternatives is a contentious topic in the field of investment management. The efficient market hypothesis states that active funds should not be able to derive net-of-fee risk-adjusted returns in excess of their benchmarks on a persistent basis. However, emerging market economies such as South Africa that have less efficient markets, present active managers with greater opportunities to persistently outperform after fees have been accounted for. This study evaluates the performance persistency of actively managed South African equity, interest-bearing, multi asset, and real estate unit trust funds relative to investable passive alternatives. The rolling holding period performance of actively managed unit trusts relative to investable passive alternatives are assessed by making use of notched boxplots. Active funds are classified as persistent out- or underperformers if the median of their rolling period excess return distributions relative to their respective passive alternatives is significantly different from zero at a 5% level of significance. This study finds that a greater proportion (83.969%) of active funds persistently out- or underperform their comparable passive alternatives. More evidence of persistently outperforming funds is found amongst interest-bearing and real estate funds. Conversely, a greater number of persistently underperforming funds are found amongst equity and multi asset funds. Furthermore, this study concludes that other determinants of unit trust fund performance persistence such as the degree of competition, sector- and fund-level diseconomies of scale, and investment charges should supplement the analysis of a fund’s performance history when making future investment decisions.
Board characteristics, ownership concentration and value-added efficiency : a multi-theoretic contingency framework
(University of Pretoria, 2021) Brümmer, Leon; Du Toit, Elda; joanne.seligmann@up.ac.za; Seligmann, Joanne
The importance of intellectual capital and the management of this resource is increasingly important to value creation owing to the shift from a product-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. The board of directors plays an important role in the management of intellectual capital and performs multiple roles simultaneously. These roles include the monitoring and control role, the stewardship role, the service role and the strategic role. The characteristics of the board of directors influence the performance of these roles and the effectiveness of the management of intellectual capital. Enhanced intellectual capital management has the potential to improve intellectual capital performance and create value for a company. A multi-theoretic contingency model was adopted to acknowledge the multiple roles of the board of directors by applying an integrated approach to agency theory, stewardship theory, resource dependence theory and stakeholder theory. The multi-theoretic contingency model used ownership concentration as the contingent factor, to examine the relationships between the characteristics of the board of directors and intellectual capital performance, measured as the efficiency of value added by a company from its resources. A deeper understanding was obtained by considering the moderating effect of ownership concentration on these relationships. Ownership concentration may be viewed as a corporate governance mechanism that either reduces or aggravates the agency problem, impacting the resources available for the effective management of intellectual capital by the board of directors. The estimated generalised least squares method was applied to the regression models, with period seemingly unrelated regressions weightings and using White (diagonal) standard errors and covariance estimation methods. This mitigated the problems associated with autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The estimation method was first applied, without any interaction terms, to examine the relationships of ownership concentration and the characteristics of the board of directors with the efficiency of value added by a company from its resources. Interaction terms, which were created by using ownership concentration as the potential moderating variable, were then individually introduced to the regression models. This was done for the full sample and also for the top industries on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The findings of this study are important for the advancement of corporate governance policies that focus not only on the monitoring and control role, but also the service and strategic roles, of the board of directors. The study indicated that a higher level of ownership concentration had a moderating effect on the relationships between the characteristics of the board of directors and the efficiency of value added by a company from its resources in certain circumstances. However, the findings also indicated that the specific measure of ownership concentration was significant. In addition, the results differed between industries, suggesting that corporate governance policies should not be generic.
The relationship between retirement planning and financial advice in South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Kekana, Mamekwa Katlego; kphlabati@gmail.com; Hlabati, Kedibone
Purpose: Retirement planning has been declining rapidly all over the world due to the shift of self-funding mechanisms, such as moving from a Defined Benefit (DB) plan to the Defined Contribution (DC) plan, where individuals are required to manage their own financial wealth. Due to this rapid shift, there has been an increase in demand for financial advisors to assist individuals with decision-making and explain complex financial concepts with the perception of guiding households to build their retirement wealth. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between retirement planning and financial advice as a predictor for retirement adequacy to determine if the latter will have any influence in helping South Africans be financially independent when they retire. This study was compelled by the fact that no or limited prior studies have been conducted in the South African context on the relationship between financial advice and retirement planning. Design/methodology/approach: In order to investigate the relationship and influence of financial advice on retirement planning, a South African Social Attitudes Survey that was conducted in 2011 by the Human Sciences Research Council was used. The chi-square and the logistic regression statistical techniques were applied to test the study hypotheses using the data from the survey. The following hypotheses were included: H0: There is no relationship between retirement planning and financial advice. H1: There is a relationship between retirement planning and financial advice. H0: There is no relationship between socio-demographics and retirement planning. H2: There is a relationship between socio-demographics and retirement planning. H0: There is no relationship between socio-demographics and financial advice. H3: There is a relationship between socio-demographics and financial advice. Findings: The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between retirement planning and financial advice. The more individuals seek financial advice the more they tend to adequately plan for retirement. Practical implications: In view of the strong relationship between the two variables, employers, government and institutions should prioritize making financial advice an essential part of retirement planning for employees.
The value relevance of goodwill and its disclosure for companies listed on the JSE
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Hall, J.H. (John Henry); Brummer, L.M., 1940-; elmarie.louw@up.ac.za; Louw, Elmarie
The value relevance of goodwill is a topic of ongoing discussion in accounting, because of the nature of this intangible asset, and changes in the accounting standards regarding the disclosure of goodwill and goodwill impairment. International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 3 was implemented in March 2004 with the aim of improving the reliability of goodwill accounting, introducing a major change, namely the requirement to test annually for goodwill impairment. The aim of this study was to determine the value relevance of goodwill after the introduction of IFRS 3 in a specific setting, namely South Africa, using JSE-listed firms as a sample. It also investigated the determinants for both goodwill impairment decisions and the disclosure quality of goodwill impairments, as well as the value relevance of goodwill impairment and its disclosure. Finally, the study considered the explanation strategies used by management to provide reasons for goodwill impairment. Panel least squares regressions and a cluster analysis were used to analyse JSE-listed firms for the period from 2006 to 2017. The findings show that goodwill is indeed value relevant. Significant predictors of goodwill impairment were found to be potential earnings management, whether a firm was goodwill intensive, and corporate governance mechanisms. Goodwill impairment in itself was not value relevant, but it was a predictor of market value when its disclosure was taken into account. Findings indicated that goodwill impairment test-related disclosure was negatively associated with a firm’s market value. Firms that provided an excuse for impairing goodwill, without taking responsibility for that impairment, tended to have higher quality of disclosure than firms that did not provide any reason for goodwill impairment at all. The study contributes to the existing literature by presenting evidence that goodwill is value relevant in the South African setting after the introduction of IFRS 3, and that when investors determine a firm’s market value, investors simultaneously assess goodwill impairment and its disclosure. How reasons for impairment are provided by management also provides insight into the quality of goodwill impairment disclosure.
The role and usage of suitable financial products for saving and investment purposes in South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Kekana, Mamekwa Katlego; eunice.sekgala@yahoo.com; Sekgala, Eunice Raamabele
The study focused on examining the saving and investment behaviours of South Africans. There has been no extensive research in existing literature that has focused on this area of study. This study intends to extend the understanding of what factors contribute to the decisions individuals make about saving and investment. The primary research objective was to explore and empirically test the statistical significance of income, education and gender related to the use of suitable financial products and investigate optimal ways to save and invest. This was a quantitative study which used secondary data obtained from the Human Science Research Council database gathered through a structured questionnaire. A sample of 2,972 individuals across the country participated in and completed the survey. The results illustrated that low-income participants saved less through informal saving schemes than high-income participants, but the statistical significant difference between these groups is too small. The findings also showed that less-educated participants used predominantly more formal saving products than highly educated participants and the statistical significant difference between these groups is large. Finally, the findings highlighted that females make better investment choices than males, but the statistical significant difference between these groups is too small. This study illustrated that low savings and investment in South Africa is influenced by the type of financial products used and also demographic factors such as income, education and gender.
The value relevance of derivatives for South African listed companies
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Hall, J.H. (John Henry); Brummer, L.M., 1940-; eduard.toerien@up.ac.za; Toerien, Franz Eduard
This study investigates the use of derivatives by firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) during 2005 to 2017, and the disclosure of derivative financial instruments on the financial statements of these entities. The study can be broadly divided into two parts: the first part investigates the determinants of corporate hedging practices by JSE-listed firms, while the second part analyses the value relevance of derivatives disclosures. The first part of the study thus answers the question ‘Why do companies use derivatives?’ with reference to JSE-listed companies for the period 2005 to 2017. The second part of the study answers the question ‘Does the disclosure of derivatives in the financial statements have an impact on firm value?’ for the same companies and period. Binomial logistic regression analyses were done to assess the determinants of the corporate hedging practices employed by JSE-listed firms. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to determine the value relevance of derivatives disclosures. The results of the study suggest that firm size, growth prospects, leverage and managerial risk aversion are important determinants of JSE-listed firms’ hedging decisions. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the disclosure of firms’ use of derivatives in the financial statements is value relevant and that companies listed on the JSE are associated with a higher Tobin’s Q if they disclose a derivatives amount. This study also investigates whether the value relevance of derivatives disclosure is influenced differently under different conditions during different economic periods and whether the level of quality of the disclosure influences the value relevance of derivatives disclosure. The data show that the value relevance of risk disclosure companies depend on different economic periods, and that the level of higher quality risk disclosure has a negative impact on the value relevance of derivatives disclosures: firms are valued lower where the level of quality of derivatives disclosures is higher.
Board characteristics and the financial performance and risk management of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
(University of Pretoria, 2020-09-16) Du Toit, Elda; Van Schalkwyk, Henco C.; gerritk@dbsa.org; Kok, Gerrit S.
The thesis investigated the relationship between multiple board characteristics and five performance and risk-management indicators. Following criticism against testing for linear relationships when it comes to corporate relationships, the study used binary logistic regression to determine whether relationships exist between the board characteristics and the likelihood that companies will rank as top performers in terms of the respective measures. The research confirmed that a number of characteristics have statistically significant relationships with the financial performance and risk-management measures. These findings are useful for determining which board characteristics a company should focus on, given the specific objectives a company wishes to pursue. However, findings in terms of board characteristics that did not show statistically significant relationships to financial performance and risk management measures are equally useful, as this indicates that those characteristics can be included in a board, if there is a different motivation for doing so, without jeopardising the wellbeing of the company.
Inter-relationship between the capital structure and distribution policies of companies listed on the JSE
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Brummer, L.M., 1940-; Wolmarans, H.P. (Hendrik Petrus); mvitampinda@gmail.com; Mvita, Mpinda Freddy
Previous studies have invoked information costs, the trade-off theory and the pecking-order theory as well as agency problems to explain capital structure and distribution strategies independently. However, the theories of the signalling, pecking-order, trade-off and agency cost suggest that a company’s capital structure and distribution strategies are interrelated not only through joint determinants, namely the company-specific attributes, but also directly to each other. Consequently, this research examined the inter-relationship between capital structure and distribution strategies (dividend payments and repurchase of shares) of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in the four main sectors for the periods 1990 to 2017 and 1999 to 2017. The study was done for two periods because the repurchase of shares in South Africa only became legal during 1999. Using the pooled regression model, the fixed-effects model, the random effects model, the generalised method of moments and the three-stage least squares estimation (full information), the results revealed that the financing patterns and the distribution strategies of JSE-listed companies were likely to be jointly determined. The results also indicated that the interdependence between capital structure and distribution policies could also be determined through some joint determinants. Advanced threshold regression analysis was used. The empirical evidence supported the existence of an optimal capital structure and the threshold effect, for the payment of dividends over the period 1990 to 2017 and 1999 to 2017, which was consistent with the trade-off theory. However, the threshold effect did not affect share repurchases over the period 1999 to 2017. Furthermore, the results of the model of choice revealed that the choice between the dividend payments, both (dividend payments and the repurchase of shares) or none (neither dividend payments nor share repurchases) relative to share repurchases was driven by profitability, company size, cash flow, working capital and market volatility. The results indicated that with an increase in profitability as a determinant of choice, JSE-listed companies were more likely to choose to pay dividends only or pay dividends and repurchase shares at the same time. During periods of high market volatility (policy uncertainty in the market), the results showed that South African managers chose to reduce the amount paid in dividends and share repurchases or neither pay dividends and repurchase shares at all. The sectoral analysis revealed that the four chosen sectors of the JSE were subjected to different challenges in terms of operating risk, technology requirement and environmental regulations, which resulted in different financing decisions and distribution strategies. The literature indicated that companies’ financing and distribution decisions not only relied on companies’ specific characteristics, but the nature of the sectors could also determine these decisions. This argument was consistent with the research findings. The findings in the study have important implications for putting into practice good financing and distribution policies. The outcome of the analyses implies that South African companies in the four main sectors, namely basic materials, industrial, consumer goods and consumer services, and their managements teams must be aware of the inherent interactions among financing and distribution decisions in order to avoid undesirable side effects which may result from a wrong decision. Consequently, South African managers should consider the key corporate decisions simultaneously and through joint determinants.
The relationship between retirement planning and financial literacy in South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2018-10-31) Kekana, Mamekwa Katlego; nyashadhle@gmail.com; Dhlembeu, Nyasha Tapiwa
There is a global shift with regard to the retirement provision of individuals as people have a greater responsibility towards their financial plans for retirement. Globally, there is a concern that people are not saving enough for retirement and in South Africa, only 6% of the population is expected to retire with adequate funds to maintain their standard of living. The objective of this study is to determine if there is a relationship between retirement planning and financial literacy in South Africa and thus establish the correlation between financial literacy and low retirement savings rates. Furthermore, the financial literacy level and retirement planning behaviour of specific sociodemographic groups is discussed with a focus on age, gender, race, education level and income level. Secondary data collected from the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS) 2011: Financial Literacy Baseline Survey has been used for this study and the survey was conducted on a sample of 2 972 individuals. To increase the validity of the results, the chi-square test, independent sample t-test and binomial logistic regression analysis are used to test the relationship between the two variables. All tests reveal a significant positive relationship between retirement planning and financial literacy. The study further reveals that only 27% of South Africans are actively planning for retirement and the sociodemographic groups with low retirement planning behaviour include women, less educated individuals, black African people and low-income earners. This study contributes to retirement planning literature by establishing the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning in the context of a developing country that belongs to the association of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It is recommended that future research determines other factors that affect retirement planning and the effect of financial literacy on other financial behaviours, such as saving for emergencies.
Distribution policy and creation of shareholders' wealth : a study of firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Wolmarans, H.P. (Hendrik Petrus); Hall, J.H. (John Henry); u23317257@tuks.co.za; Munzhelele, Ntungufhadzeni Freddy
Dividend payout decisions remain one of the key functional areas in corporate finance, as it involves the means by which shareholders receive returns on their investments. For many decades, the academic debate on payout decisions has been ongoing as researchers attempted to analyse and explain how these decisions impact on the creation and maximisation of value for shareholders; the fundamental reasons why companies exist. Researchers have not found conclusive answers to put the debate to rest; rather attempts to put together pieces of the dividend dynamics have raised more questions and hence the dividend puzzle. The recognition of share repurchases as payout option (and hence distribution decisions) have made the debate quite complex. The current study, thus sought to contribute to distribution decisions’ debate in a number of ways. The study firstly reviewed the extended dividend payout models of Fama and Babiak (1968), and Andres, Betzer, Goergen and Renneboog (2009) thereby adding further explanatory variables and then tested the extended model in the South African setting. The data of 110 sample companies (Panel 1) which were also disaggregated into 85 value companies (Panel 2) and 25 growth companies (Panel 3) was used. The hypotheses were tested using the ordinary least squares (OLS), difference general method of moments (Diff GMM), system generalized method of moments (Sys GMM) and least square dummy variable correction (LSDVC) estimators. The study confirmed results of similar previous researches and also identified further trends relating to South African corporate setting. It was found that companies have target payout ratios which they adjust towards, also managers are reluctant to change (increase) dividends which may have to be cut again later and in their endeavours to create and maximise value, may have to sacrifice paying dividends. These trends are evident more with growth companies. The study secondly, tested the dividend life cycle hypothesis. A sample of 119 companies (Panel 4) were used in this regard, as well as a disaggregated sample of 86 value companies (Panel 5) and 33 growth companies (Panel 6). The hypotheses were tested using the same estimation procedures as mentioned above. The results showed that the dividend life cycle hypothesis is prevalent among South African companies. Specifically, it was observed that the considered companies pursuing growth projects paid less dividends. Furthermore, the growth companies have shown to be more aggressive in their pursuance for growth and hence are able to create more value for shareholders than value companies. Lastly, the study examined the extent to which share repurchases are used as payout option (i.e., payout flexibility), as well as factors that determine the payout flexibility. The sample number of 52 companies (Panel 7) were used in this regard and hypotheses were tested using the OLS, Diff GMM and Sys GMM. The results indicated that there is inherent flexibility of share repurchases over cash dividends; the size of company has negative and significant correlation with payout flexibility. This implies that larger companies pay out a lower fraction of payout as repurchases, and thus evidence of attitude of managers of these companies relatively different from that of smaller ones; and that share repurchases serve both substitute and complementary roles to cash dividends. This evidence collectively makes unique contribution to existing body of knowledge, particularly, for emerging economic settings, and managers will be provided with enhanced decision alternatives in their endeavours to maximise value.
The Saving Behaviour of University Students in South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2014-10-31) Lowies, Gert Abraham (Braam); kkekana@gmail.com; Kekana, Mamekwa Katlego
This study was necessitated by the fact that, thus far, no prior research on the saving behaviour of young adults, particularly university students, had been undertaken in a South African context. The primary objective of this study was to investigate and identify the saving behaviour of university students in South Africa. To meet this objective, the study investigated the following aspects: • The importance of saving for households and the economy, and the role that saving motives play in encouraging positive saving behaviour. • The economic, psychological and behavioural theories that attempt to explain the saving behaviour of individuals. • The importance of placing young adult saving behaviour into context in order to identify gaps in people’s knowledge of the development of saving behaviour in young adults. The study was conducted using a quantitative approach by means of a survey. A structured questionnaire was developed to assess and collect data on participants’ demographic information as well as their saving behaviour. A total of 248 students from University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa completed the questionnaire. The data was analysed using parametric statistical techniques. The study led to the following important findings: • University students in South Africa do engage in positive saving behaviour. • Male university students engage in better saving behaviour than female university students. • With regard to ethnicity, non-white university students engaged in better saving behaviour as compared to their white counterparts. • Having a part-time job while studying resulted in better saving behaviour compared to non-working full-time students. This study’s conclusions indicate that the saving decisions made by university students in South Africa are influenced by behavioural factors. The study has provided a solid foundation for further research into this field in an emerging economy such as South Africa.
Behavioural aspects that influence business decision-making by management accounting professionals
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Hall, J.H. (John Henry); Du Toit, Elda; u20174404@tuks.co.za; Enslin, Zacharias
In their traditional role as ‘bean-counters’, ‘scorekeepers’ and ‘controllers’, management accountants were frequently excluded from operational decision-making. Criticism by operational managers about management accountants’ decisions-making behaviour included that management accountants preferred evidence-based decisions, as opposed to the intuitive decisions that were regularly required in the business management environment. However, the role of management accounting professionals are changing to that of business partner. The first aspect which the study investigated was whether management accounting professionals experienced an increase in their involvement in business-related decision-making, as suggested by their emerging business partner role. Psychology-related behavioural aspects, which may result in biased decision-making, play a definite role in decision-making behaviour where the use of intuition is required. A review of literature indicated that management accounting professionals were less comfortable with making intuitive decisions. Therefore, they could be particularly susceptible to decision biases related to the influence of behavioural aspects. Accordingly, the second aspect which the study investigated was the susceptibility of management accountants to the main behavioural decision biases related to the use of decision heuristics and the effects of frame dependence. A survey design was employed to investigate decision-making involvement and susceptibility to behavioural biases by means of an electronic questionnaire. Responses were received from an international sample of management accounting professionals, including members of the Institute of Management Accountants (USA) and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (UK). The responses were analysed quantitatively, using both univariate and multivariate statistics. The study extends the current body of knowledge by being the first to comprehensively investigate the presence of behavioural biases in the decision-making behaviour of management accounting professionals as a group of decision-makers, which is especially relevant due to their changing decision-making role in organisations. Additionally, contrary to many previous studies in the behavioural decision-making field, the study focused on an international, widely dispersed, sample of professionally employed decision-makers. The study also contributes to the debate on the conflict in findings regarding the prevalence of the changing role of the management accountant. The important findings of the study were as follows: · Management accounting professionals were involved in making business-related decisions. However, this involvement varied depending on the position in which a management accounting professional was employed, and the size of the company in which the professional was employed. The findings regarding the decision-making involvement of management accounting professionals also indicated that the promulgated business partner role was not as pervasive as suggested by most of the literature. · Management accounting professionals experienced an increase in business decision-making involvement. This experience was not as widespread as the literature on the business partner role suggests, and was more pronounced for professionals between 30 and 49 years of age, and those more amenable to using their judgement when making decisions. · Management accounting professionals were susceptible to frame dependence bias. The susceptibility of management accounting professionals to the biases of concurrent decisions framing, the certainty effect and the pseudo-certainty effect was similar to that of other populations. However, these professionals exhibited a lower susceptibility to loss aversion bias. Their susceptibility to mental accounting bias requires further investigation. · Management accounting professionals were also susceptible to heuristic-based bias. Their susceptibility was similar to that of other populations for the representativeness-related confirmation bias, as well as for the adjustment and anchoring heuristic-related bias. Management accounting professionals exhibited lower susceptibility than other populations to the biases of misconceptions of chance, misconceptions of regression to the mean, general overconfidence, and affect. However, they were more susceptible to overconfidence in performing difficult tasks than other populations. The findings could be of value to the management accounting profession in indicating that educational requirements existed for both the traditional and emerging roles of the management accountant. The study also initiated the research into the susceptibility of management accounting professionals to behavioural biases and paved the way for research and other actions aimed to debias the decision-making behaviour of these professionals.
Underspecification in the macroeconomic Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) linear factor model and the role of the residual market factor
(University of Pretoria, 2018) Brummer, L.M., 1940-; Wolmarans, H.P. (Hendrik Petrus); u04911807@tuks.co.za; Szczygielski, Jan Jakub
The linear factor model is a building block of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Macroeconomic factors may be used in linear factor models to proxy for the pervasive influences in returns. However, as the true return generating process is unobservable, macroeconomic data is either inaccurate or unavailable and because of the principle of parsimony, the linear factor model is likely to suffer from factor omission and consequent underspecification. Underspecification may adversely affect the interpretation of results, introduce coefficient bias, result in an upward bias in the residual variance and adversely affect predictive ability. The diagonality assumption that underlies the APT linear factor model will also be violated. Consequently, underspecification may pose a challenge to the general validity and interpretation of the linear factor model and the APT model. A widely applied solution to omitted factor bias in APT literature is the Burmeister and Wall (1986) residual market factor, hypothesised to fulfil the role of a wide-ranging proxy for omitted factors. This factor is derived from a broad market aggregate by excluding the influence of other factors that feature in a given linear factor model. This study sets out to determine whether the use of a conventional residual market factor derived from a domestic market aggregate adequately resolves underspecification. This study also considers the impact of underspecification on the linear factor model. The role of a second residual market factor derived from a widely used global market index, the MSCI World Market Index, in resolving factor omission is also considered. A second residual market factor that is orthogonal by contribution to the factor set in the linear factor model should be irrelevant if a conventional residual market factor is an adequate proxy for omitted factors. Consequently, the second residual market factor in this study also fulfils the function of a test of the adequacy of the conventional residual market factor. The approach in this study is comparative; three reduced form models are juxtaposed against a benchmark model and each other. The benchmark model incorporates a macroeconomic factor set, two residual market factors and a factor analytic augmentation as proxies for any remaining unobserved and omitted factors. Each specification is estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. Conditional variance is modelled as an ARCH(p) or GARCH(p,q) process to permit the structure of conditional variance to enter coefficient estimates and to provide insight into the conditional variance structure of the residuals. It is hypothesised that if factor omission has no impact on representations of the linear factor model and if the residual market factor is an effective and adequate proxy for omitted factors, then a model that comprises macroeconomic factors and a residual market factor should be comparable to the benchmark model in terms of results, general inferences and other aspects. This study finds that a linear factor model incorporating only macroeconomic factors performs poorly. The significance of factors is understated and the model is misidentified. Standard errors and residual variance are inflated, coefficients are biased and predictive and explanatory performance is poor. Significant deviations from the true return generating process are observed and the diagonality assumption is violated. The incorporation of a single residual market factor improves such a specification although there is still evidence of significant omitted factor bias. Violations of the diagonality assumption continue to persist but are not as widespread as for the specification that solely employs macroeconomic factors. The inclusion of a second residual market factor does not significantly alleviate the symptoms of underspecification and this factor is significant in a number of instances suggesting that the residual market factor does not capture all omitted influences by itself. Researchers of the APT and practitioners are encouraged to take note of these findings to avoid misinterpreting the results of macroeconomic linear factor models. The linear factor model is a complex construct and the application of a widely used approach in APT literature to resolve factor omission may not be adequate. This can adversely impact studies focusing on the linear factor model and equilibrium pricing within the APT and studies that apply macroeconomic linear factor models motivated by the APT.
An analysis of effects of ownership on capital structure and corporate performance of South African firms
(University of Pretoria, 2018) Brummer, L.M., 1940-; Hall, J.H. (John Henry); twmdube@yahoo.com; Dube, Tapiwa
The question of whether ownership matters remains an important one in corporate financial policy. The types of owners of the means of production in an economy and the extent to which ownership is concentrated or diffused are important issues for an economy because they may have important effects on the leadership and control of such firms. Such effects influence the economy at macro level. The work by Berle and Means (1932:47) was based on firms owned by many shareholders with small ownership stakes, which were run by professional managers who had little or no ownership, leading to questions of ownership and corporate performance. Important decisions have to be made in firms regarding capital structure and performance. Although the literature covers the effects of concentration and types of ownerships on capital structure and corporate performance, the results are mixed. Theoretical studies explain factors that affect leverage and corporate performance but empirical studies provide inconclusive results. The questions pertaining to the effects of ownership concentration on leverage and corporate performance persist, with different institutional settings contributing to the lack of generalisable results. Inconclusive results are also attributed to the different statistical methods employed and the time periods of such studies. Few studies combine several ownership types and ownership concentration to analyse their effects on capital structure and corporate performance, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of ownership on capital structure and corporate performance in South Africa. Ownership in this study was subdivided into ownership concentration and ownership type. The Herfindahl index was the measure of ownership concentration at the top one, two, three, five and 10 shareholding levels and the types of ownerships consisted of institutional investors, families, government, management, foreigners, companies, Public Investment Corporation, black people and other shareholders. Dependent variables in the relationship with capital structure were long-term debt, short-term debt and total debt ratios based on market value and book value, and the leverage factor. Corporate performance was measured by return on assets, return on equity, Tobin�s Q, economic value-added and market value-added as the dependent variables. Capital structure and other theories were used to examine the relationship between ownership and capital structure and results from previous studies were also used to investigate the relationship between ownership and corporate performance. To achieve these objectives, the research used an unbalanced panel of data from 205 non-financial companies listed for an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014 and the fixed effects and the generalised method of moments models to analyse the data. The study found that ownership concentration, ownership by the Public Investment Corporation and black people had negative effects on capital structure. An implication for ownership concentration is that as it increased, the shareholders preferred to use less debt, perhaps meaning that they did not consider it important to take advantage of the monitoring capability associated to debt. Similar reasoning could be attributed to the Public Investment Corporation although an aversion to risk could also be a possible explanation. Due to the way black shareholdings have traditionally been funded in South Africa, such shareholders could shun debt. Ownership by institutions, families, directors, companies and foreigners had positive effects on capital structure. These results implied that some shareholders, such as institutional investors, companies and foreign investors could prefer to use debt in monitoring management. Findings for managerial ownership and capital structure could imply that these types of shareholders used debt to avoid diluting their shareholdings due to their limited wealth. The effect of government ownership on capital structure was mixed. Foreign ownership and ownership by other shareholders had positive effects on corporate performance. The implications of these findings are that foreign investors monitor and provide skills and technology to their investee firms, thereby increasing the performance of these firms. Ownership by management, institutions, black shareholders and the Public Investment Corporation had negative effects on corporate performance. These findings could imply managerial entrenchment, lack of monitoring by the Public Investment Corporation and institutional investors or low levels of shareholdings to enable them to commit resources to investee firms and inadequate experience on the part of black shareholders.
The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Industrial Shares Listed on the JSE
(University of Pretoria, 2017) Hall, J.H. (John Henry); kamoto.banda@gmail.com; Banda, Kamoto
This study investigates the causal relationships, both long run and short run between the Industrial Index 25 and some macroeconomic variables in South Africa. Quarterly data from all the variables was collected from 1995 Q3 (September) to 2015 Q2 (June). Included in the set of macroeconomic variables used in this study are gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (CPI), prime rates and exchange rates. Statistical techniques applied in order to analyse the relationship between stock returns and macroeconomic variables include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, correlation analysis, Johansen cointegration test, Vector error correction (VECM) and Granger causality tests in a multivariate framework. Results show that inflation significantly increases stock prices, hence investors get some inflationary compensation. Interest rates are shown to have a negative relationship between, suggestive of the substitution between stocks and interest bearing securities when interest rates increase. On the other hand, exchange rates have a positive effect on the INDI25, whilst there is no relationship between INDI 25 and GDP. Two error correction terms were obtained from the VECM. Whilst the first one was insignificant and failed to indicate any long -run relationship, the other term was significant, indicating short term adjustments and the presence of a long run relationship from GDP, CPI, prime rates and exchange rates to INDI 25. Results from Granger causality showed only univariate causality from INDI 25 to prime rates.
An artificial intelligence model to predict financial distress in companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
(University of Pretoria, 2017) Vermaak, Frans N.S.; Brummer, L.M., 1940-; vandercolff.f@gmail.com; Van der Colff, Francois
As a prerequisite for an informed decision, a company’s financial results are undoubtedly one of the most important aspects to be considered in a financial distress prediction model. To rely purely on financial results for prediction is a risk. The dilemma is that financial variables are backward-looking and point-in-time measures of a company’s financial results. Ever-changing quantitative non-financial variables could enhance the decision-making process and should therefore be taken into consideration. For this research, an artificial intelligence model based on a unique combination of financial, market and quantitative non-financial variables was developed and tested against internationally and South African-developed financial distress prediction models in order to determine its prediction accuracy. Various levels of the artificial intelligence model were separately tested against the two statistical financial distress prediction models. Empirical results of the study proved that a financial distress prediction model enhanced with market and quantitative non-financial variables yielded more accurate results than a model based purely on financial variables. A two-pronged overview of the theoretical development of financial distress prediction models was given to establish a foundation for the development of a financial distress prediction model for the study. The reliability, popularity and further development of a statistically based financial distress prediction model were constrained. Constraints such as reliance on outdated financial information in a highly dynamic operating environment and the advent of computer technology and artificial intelligence contributed to a new era in financial distress prediction. Despite its purported success, neural networks were also subject to various limitations. In an effort to overcome the critical limitations and constraints experienced in the application of neural network models, researchers have developed derivative financial distress prediction models. Most of these models are still at the stage of static modelling and are built with sample data, which is collected over an extended period of time. However, variables in the economic and company environment change over time and if the financial distress prediction model is not aligned or adjusted to these changes, the financial distress prediction model could lead to financial distress concept drift. This important criticism against the financial distress prediction models formed the foundation of the study. In an attempt to deal with the constraints experienced with neural network models, the study applied support vector machines to the financial distress prediction problem. The main difference between neural networks and support vector machines is the principle of risk minimisation. While neural networks implement empirical risk minimisation to minimise the error on the training data, support vector machines implement the principle of structural risk minimisation to minimise the generalisation error by constructing an optimal separating hyperplane in the hidden feature space, using quadratic programming in order to find an optimal solution. The primary objective of the study was to develop an artificial intelligence-based financial distress prediction model, which incorporated a unique combination of financial and quantitative non-financial variables from a South African perspective. The intention with the proposed financial distress prediction model was to provide a more accurate and timeous company financial health and distress prediction on a financial distress continuum compared with a statistical financial distress prediction model. A phased approach was followed, first by identifying the variables most often applied to financial distress prediction studies. A principal component analysis was conducted in the final selection of financial and market variables and the model development. The leading, coincident and lagging business cycle indicators as published by the South African Reserve Bank were selected as proxy for quantitative non-financial variables. A financial distress prediction model was developed based on machine learning principles, enhanced with market and quantitative non-financial variables and compared with existing financial prediction models. The empirical results demonstrated that different combinations of financial, market and quantitative non-financial variables enhanced the accuracy of financial distress prediction models.
Perceptions of retirement adequacy in Lesotho : behavioural and socio-economic influences
(University of Pretoria, 2017) Reyers, Michelle; tokiso26@gmail.com; Nthebe, Tokiso Evaristus
Saving for retirement has become more complicated for employees due to the complexity of the financial decisions involved. Financial decision making is believed to be associated with a number of behavioural and socio-economic factors, and these factors may in turn be related to whether employees perceive themselves to be adequately saving for retirement. This study assesses which factors predict whether individuals working in both the financial and non-financial sectors in Lesotho perceive themselves to be adequately preparing for retirement. The main focus is on financial literacy, financial risk tolerance and future time perspective. As a secondary focus, the study looks at potential differences between two sectors of employees that may be attributed to differing levels of financial literacy. Data was collected using an online survey from 107 banking and 93 non-banking employees in Lesotho and analysed using bivariate and multivariate techniques, with a linear regression model used in terms of the multivariate analysis. This study finds that financial literacy, financial risk tolerance, and future time perspective are all positively related to perceived retirement adequacy in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, for those working outside the financial sector, objective financial literacy, subjective financial literacy and future perspective were positively related to perceived retirement adequacy. Whereas for those in the financial sector; higher levels of future time perspective, higher household income and being older were all associated with higher levels of perceived retirement adequacy providing insights to industry role players about the profile of individuals who are confident about retirement savings and how this contrasts with those who are not confident.

Browse

Recent Submissions