Theses and Dissertations (Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM))

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Stakeholder expectations and perceptions of the role of the project management office in local government : a case study
(University of Pretoria, 2023-04) Pretorius, Leon; mothowamodimo.wo@gmail.com; Mothowamodimo, Willie Ofentse
There are few studies on the organisational role in project management specifically in Project Management Offices (PMOs) in the public sector. There is also limited research on the role of PMOs in South Africa and even less research on human behavioural factors that may impact on its effectiveness and value of these PMOs. The objective of this study is to analyse project management stakeholders’ expectations and perceptions of the role(s) of the PMO in South African local government. The author followed a qualitative approach using an in-depth and exploratory singlecase study of the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CoTMM) wherein twenty (20) participants were interviewed and their transcripts were coded and analysed with the assistance of the ATLAS.ti software. The results of this study demonstrate that there are inconsistencies between the mandated role of the PMO and what the stakeholders expect from them. The roles and functions expected by stakeholders from the PMO are inconsistent and unrealistic. The stakeholder’s perceptions of the roles and functions of the PMO are not in congruence with their unrealistic expectations; therefore, it is currently viewed as not delivering value. This leads to the PMO staff experiencing role stress. The results of this study therefore, support the literature reviewed as well as the theories used to develop the conceptual framework. The author recommends that to enable the PMO to improve the effectiveness and provide more value, (1) the CoTMM, and municipalities in South Africa, should review the role(s) of the PMO in the municipality through an Organisational Role Analysis (ORA) process; and (2) municipalities should implement a gradual implementation of the PMO model, roles and functions starting at a basic operational level, progressing to an intermediate tactical level, and finally an advanced strategic level.
Technology forecasting for national research and education networks using structural equation modelling-based context-sensitive data fusion
(University of Pretoria, 2024-07-03) Pretorius, Leon; Pretorius, Marthinus; leon.staphorst@gmail.com; Staphorst, Leonard
Technology Intelligence entails an intricate process of gathering and transforming data related to technological advancements into refined actionable intelligence by identifying and analysing emergent characteristics and inter-relational linkages. Specialists in this field process this refined information to develop knowledge critical for directing strategic technology management decisions. As primary sources of technology-related data, technology indicators facilitate an expansive characterisation and evaluation of various technologies throughout their entire lifecycle. Engaging in Future-oriented Technology Analysis necessitates a rigorous examination of in-formation from these indicators, equipping decision-makers with sophisticated insights for Technology Forecasting, a vital tool in anticipating and preparing for future technology trends and developments. This study posits that one can conceptualise Technology Forecasting as a context-sensitive Data Fusion process using Structural Equation Modelling. To this end, this study undertook inductive reasoning to develop generic frameworks for Structural equation Modelling, context-sensitive Data Fusion and the relational mapping of technology indicators for Technology Forecasting, employing analytic literature assessment, conceptual framework development and grounded theory as supportive research methodologies. These generic frameworks were then integrated through inductive reasoning, incorporating comparative and cross-disciplinary analyses and framework unification to develop the study's proposed framework for Technology Forecasting using Structural Equation Modelling-based, context-sensitive Data Fusion. The proposed Technology Forecasting framework includes methodologies and processes for integrating data from varied sources while emphasising the importance of complex hierarchal relational interconnections and context-related information to augment technology indicator relevance. Data Fusion methods attuned to context refine the output knowledge produced by accounting for the influence of external, context-related variables. Structural Equation Modelling is a robust statistical methodology that can discern and assess the complex hierarchical relationships between latent and observable variables within a given problem and its context, demonstrating efficacy in executing context-sensitive Data Fusion. The study developed an autoregression model instantiation of the framework, tailored explicitly for longitudinal forecasting in the National Research and Education Network technology do-main. This model instantiation, formulated through deductive reasoning, incorporates insights from action research within the South African National Research Network. It is supplemented by analysis of secondary data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network As-sociation's Compendiums, which record infrastructure, services, and ecosystem-related trends for National Research and Education Networks in Europe. This autoregressive model instantiation, although found suboptimal, innovatively delineated various technology-related indicators from the National Research and Education Network technology domain as distinct model technology-related constructs, for example, the measurements of core network traffic, while also integrating indicators for context-related constructs, such as the spectrum of institutions typically serviced by National Research and Education Networks. Employing secondary data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network Association's annual Compendiums, the study undertook a Partial Least Squares regression analysis to empirically evaluate this autoregressive model instantiation to ascertain key model parameters, such as indicator loadings and path coefficients. The study also engaged in an extensive reliability and validity analysis of this model instantiation, affirming the empirical analysis's repeatability and the model instantiation's internal consistency in providing technology forecasting outputs in the National Research and Education Network technology domain. Next, the study developed a cross-sectional model instantiation for the National Research and Education Network technology domain. Although incapable of longitudinal technology forecasting, this model instantiation marked a considerable improvement in performance over the autoregressive model instantiation. Its development not only amalgamated knowledge from action research conducted within the South African National Research Network and insights from the annual Compendiums of the Trans-European Research and Education Networking Association but also hypotheses from scholarly literature. Partial Least Squares regression analysis, employing data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network Association Compendiums, confirmed various hypothesised relationships, except the anticipated positive correlation between a National Research and Education Network's infrastructure and advanced services capabilities. This exception underscores the influence of technology leapfrogging within the National Research and Education Network community, potentially disrupting established technology development and adoption patterns. The study concluded with an extensive analysis of the proposed framework's strengths and weaknesses. Informed by a broad scholarly discourse on the strengths and weaknesses of Data Fusion and Structural Equation Modelling, this evaluation scrutinised the framework's capability to incorporate context-related information in forecasting computations and its potential susceptibility to inaccuracies arising from structural model misspecification. This investigation employed various model instances specific to the National Research and Education Network technology domain for this assessment, including a structurally disarranged model instantiation. This study heralds a transformative advancement in Technology Forecasting, particularly within the National Research and Education Networks technology domain, by introducing a novel amalgamation of Structural Equation Modelling and context-sensitive Data Fusion to perform transversal and longitudinal technology prediction using technology and context-related indicators. This innovative approach contributes to Engineering and Technology Management by offering an advanced tool for strategic planning and technology trend analysis. The core publications from the study demonstrated the development, practical application and assessment of this integrated framework. In contrast, the study’s supplementary publications enhanced the understanding and application of Partial Least Squares analysis tools to perform the regression analysis required to create various model instantiations for the National Research and Education Networks technology domain.
Innovation for Survivability, Resilience, and Competitive Advantage During a Crisis: The Case of Cross-Country Transport Ltd in a Covid-19 Pandemic.
(University of Pretoria, 2023-10-15) Chikwanda, Hilda; u21739502@tuks.co.za; Otuokwu, Daniel
Commercial road transport, both passenger and freight, has been hit hard by COVID-19 due to transport restrictions imposed to contain the pandemic and the general economic downturn. While COVID-19 has shown unfathomable challenges to organizations, the pandemic has enabled numerous organizations to unleash their ability to innovate in the middle of a crisis and cleared the way to become resilient further into the future. This research focused on the strategic innovation phenomena where innovation plays a critical role in helping organizations to be sustainable during times of crisis. The study explains this through analysis and insights from the Nigerian Road Transportation Sector, taking the case of Cross-Country Transport Ltd. The research explored the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the business operations of the case organization, the results and analysis showed that the pandemic had a significant economic impact on the company’s business operations. In addition to the adoption of a cost-cutting strategy as a measure to avoid insolvency, the company’s adherence to the lockdown and health measures as a response to the pandemic was viewed as a positive retort. Also, it was found that the case study company did not come up with any innovative strategies during the lockdown, however, post-lockdown saw a move towards online boarding instead of the traditional way of boarding. Based on the results, the company did not see an adjustment to its business model during the lockdown and post-lockdown, showing a lack of flexibility, and an innovative ecosystem within the organization. Although the 4IR digital technologies are evolving, they gave a competitive advantage to organizations that incorporated them during the lockdown. The objective was to test the preparedness strategy of the case study organization for the future adoption of these emerging technologies. The results showed that most staff had low knowledge of industry 4.0 technologies with disruption capacity in the sector of the company’s operations. Although the company is looking into developing policies that will help support its preparedness strategy towards the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies. This research also proposed a conceptual model that identifies the strategic innovation framework for crisis anticipation such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The model can support organizations to become resilient, competitive, and innovative during crisis response. Since the transportation industry is prone to crisis, the need to adopt a strategic response in anticipation of a crisis that impacts business organizations becomes imperative. Although there were limitations encountered during the study, recommendations for future studies were outlined.
Strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities : a dynamic capabilities approach to strategically aligned value creation
(University of Pretoria, 2021) Pretorius, Marthinus W.; Jacobs, Jónatan
Organisations are finding it increasingly difficult to create value in the current dynamic, globalised, interconnected, and ever more complex business and technology environments. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is set to increase these challenges as a result of the increasing complexity and dynamic changes in market, societal, and technological trends. While current technological trends potentially offer great value to organisations, emerging technological implementations and transformations often fail to realise the desired value creation outcomes. This research study takes an exploratory sequential mixed method approach to first articulate what the major challenges to technology-enabled value creation efforts entail, before devising a means to address the defined problem statement. Following an initial exploratory study with qualitative interviews, it was determined that the major challenges to technology-enabled value creation initiatives, in the current dynamic environment, can be linked to a dynamic capabilities perspective of strategic management. This perspective encompasses the dynamic adaptation of enabling capabilities to enact strategic alignment between the external environment and an organisation’s value creation system hierarchies. These hierarchies broadly include the organisation’s strategies, its strategy execution, and its capability creation, adaptation, and management. Dynamic capabilities are defined from a system perspective and are presented as functioning to enable this desired strategic alignment. The second phase of this study takes a deductive research approach that builds on the developed theory to develop and test operational hypotheses. This research phase is executed through a descriptive research design using quantitative methods to provide a valid representation of the observed phenomena. The first part of this representation takes the form of a three-dimentional model to conceptualise the strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities, from a dynamic capabilities perspective on value creation, within the context of the 4IR. This model consists of and/or correlates with various frameworks that are either referenced or developed within this study from a systems perspective. These include but are not limited to a new perspective on technology-enabled capabilities, a strategic planning roadmapping framework to support execution in practice, and an illustrative system architecture framework for Industry 4.0 to demonstrate conformity with current 4IR related conceptualisations. This conceptual model addresses an identified need to illustrate the interconnectedness of three different dimensions. These include the dynamic capabilities approach to maintain strategic alignment (enabling functional alignment), across the value creation system hierarchies of an organisation (enabling integration), over the value creation lifecycle (enabling temporal synchronisation). The model thereby serves to provide context to the complex system surrounding the strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities, from a dynamic capabilities perspective on strategically aligned value creation. The model is tested, by testing hypotheses through quantitative analyses of survey responses from large organisations operating in dynamic environments (such as during the global pandemic in 2020) and the outcomes are discussed. The main hypothesis proposes that organisations with higher strategic alignment capacities, as conceptualised within the presented model, will also have higher value creation capacities within dynamic environments. This hypothesis is validated by showcasing strong correlations (ρ = 0.74) between the defined independent and dependent constructs, which relate to a dynamic capabilities approach to strategic alignment and more effective value creation capacities within large organisations, respectively. This seems to indicate that the hypothesis is correct, meaning that the higher the strategic alignment capacities of organisations are as a function of more effective dynamic capabilities that constitute their dynamic alignment competencies, the higher their value creation capacities are as a function of more effective value creating and capturing competencies. Furthermore, this seems to give credence to the structure of the conceptual model that gives context to the relationship between strategic alignment (and its elements from a systems perspective on the strategic management of dynamic capabilities) and the value creation system of organisations (and the elements representing this system’s function). The study closes with recommendations for future research, such as to expand on this study with a larger sample, to replicate the study for small and medium sized firms, to explore the identified trends further such as that South African industries have not yet begun actual 4IR related technological transformations, and to define value metrics to assess the value of capabilities that emerging technologies may enable. Lastly, recommendations for the application of the research outcomes in practice are given. These are focussed on the required systems perspective of dynamic capabilities to create dynamic alignment capacities that could maintain continual strategic alignment in the face of dynamic change. Some practical principles are provided, such as for the development of toolkits to perform these functions in practical and structured strategic workshops along with a roadmapping framework to contextualise value creation efforts and their interdependencies over various execution timeframes.
Science, technology and innovation indicators for the bioeconomy in South Africa : a scientometric assessment
(University of Pretoria, 2021-11) Pouris, Anastassios; bambo.thabang@gmail.com; Bambo, Thabang Lazarus
The South African Cabinet approved the South African Bioeconomy Strategy in 2013. This was followed by the launch of the Strategy in January 2014 by the Department of Science and Innovation. Bioeconomy is a recent term following the term biotechnology and encompasses activities that make use of bio-innovations based on biological sources, materials and processes to generate sustainable economic, social and environmental development. The vision is for South Africa’s bioeconomy to be a significant contributor to the country’s economy by 2030 in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). This document provides science, technology and innovation indicators to monitor the implementation of the South African Bioeconomy Strategy as recommended by the National Advisory Council on Innovation in South Africa. The study firstly provides an analysis of bioeconomy indicators in general and discusses sources of available literature from the following databases: Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit and Social Science Premium Collection. Within the bioeconomy definition, biotechnology is a common thread, however, the scope and measuring of the bioeconomy goes beyond the technology. Efforts by countries in measuring the bioeconomy at the policy level have been based on growth measures such as the contribution to GDP, however, such an approach offers an incomplete picture as it omits the environmental and social impacts of the bioeconomy. The results from the selected journal articles highlight that most academic papers discuss indicators of social, economic and environmental sustainability, yet there remains a gap as to how these interdependent sectors should be linked in order to develop a uniform methodology to measure all the aspects included in the bioeconomy. From the conclusion, the bioeconomy can be defined as the system that contributes to economic, social and technological development and is conducted without the depletion of natural resources. A comparison of changes in inputs as compared to changes in output over time will allow an assessment of the efficiency of the bioeconomy innovation system (e.g. if outputs grow more rapidly than inputs, the efficiency increases). The next components of the study focus on bioeconomy gross expenditure on research and development (R&D), business expenditure on R&D and the number of R&D personnel in the bioeconomy. These are key measures of inputs in the bioeconomy. The number of publications, patents and firms, and the value of exports in the bioeconomy were measured. These are key measures of outputs in the bioeconomy. The number of publications, patents and exports values are outlined for South Africa and compared with Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICS) and, to a certain extent, with Egypt, Nigeria, Germany, Malaysia and the United States of America (USA). The results show higher growth rates for resources committed for R&D in the bioeconomy compared to that of total research expenditures in South Africa. The growth rate for researchers in headcounts in bioeconomy were low compared to the growth rates for researchers in headcounts across all fields in South Africa. South Africa ranked last in the BRICS group in terms of the number of bioeconomy publications produced in the selected period and had a world share of 0.8%, which is higher than the national research average of 0.5%. The citations growth for South African bioeconomy publications increased by 6.8%, higher than Brazil, Russia and world citations during the period under review. The University of Cape Town is a leader in bioeconomy publications in South Africa, followed by University of Stellenbosch and the University of KwaZulu-Natal with majority of the publications on environmental sciences ecology. South Africa collaborates the most with institutions from the United States of America in bioeconomy research and the percent of international collaboration is similar to that of national scientific publications. South Africa experienced a decline in bioeconomy industry collaboration publications during this period. South Africa ranked last in the BRICS group but perfomed superior than Egypt and Nigeria in terms of the number of bioeconomy patents. The total patents citations for all BRICS members generally decreased and there were inconsistent growth rates observed. The important innovators of South Africa in this field are mainly universities and public research institutions as compared to other members of BRICS and Egypt which are dominated by private entities. Incentives that encourage collaboration between universities, research institutions and local innovation firms are required for the full realisation of South Africa’s Bioeconomy Strategy. There were 730 active bioeconomy firms in South Africa as of January 2021. South African gross exports total for bioeconomy industry sectors considered in this study were generally small compared to other members of BRICS. South Africa requires total growth of its innovative products and production processes.
Development of a risk reduction model for after-sales service on Chinese agricultural machinery in South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2021-10) Pretorius, Leon; Jiang, Dongdong S.; sgqinxiaoshun@gmail.com; Qin, Xiaoshun
There is a plentiful of arable land in Africa and South Africa. Africa remains the region all over the world with the lowest power usage and the lowest level of agricultural mechanization (Daum and Birner 2019; Makini et al. 2020). As the development of cross-border e-commerce and economy progress, more and more Chinese farm equipment has been sold in Africa and South Africa. As of now, one of the most significant problems that trap the farmers and users in Africa and South Africa is after-sales service. However, many researchers focus on agricultural mechanization in Sub-Sahara Africa (Mrema, Kienzle, and Mpagalile 2018; Makini et al. 2020). Few academics are concentrating on the risk reduction of after-sales service of agricultural machinery in Africa and South Africa, which is largely beneficial to the sustainable agri-machinery enterprise as well as agricultural economic growth. This research aims to meet this gap mentioned above. This research aims to develop a risk reduction model of after-sales service on Chinese agricultural machinery in South Africa. The information on arable land and agricultural mechanization in Africa and South Africa will be shown in the literature review. The development process of Chinese farm machinery, the status quo of export on the farm machine as well as Chinese agricultural equipment in Africa and South Africa will be addressed in the literature review. Furthermore, the detailed knowledge of the after-sales service of agricultural machinery and risk management will also be elaborated in this part. This study's research methodology is an explanatory research method and design in which quantitative data will be collected and analyzed first, followed by qualitative data collection and analysis. The research population in this study includes staff, workers, directors, managers, CEOs as well as presidents who work at agricultural machinery enterprises. The government officials, staff, fellows, directors who research agricultural machinery and provide the service, information and knowledge for agri-machinery users have also been involved in this study. Meanwhile, the research population consists of academics, including professors, doctors and researchers whose study is about after-sales service of agricultural machinery or the relevant. On the other hand, the small-holder farmers or users who make use of farm machinery in both South Africa and China as well as other relevant people who know the after-sales service of agricultural machinery are also in the probe of the study population. Seven hundred thirty-nine closed-end questionnaires have been collected in Shandong province and Henan province in China. Due to the Covid-19, we cannot gather the questionnaires in South Africa. Furthermore, focus-group interviews have been conducted in South Africa and China. The principal axis factoring (PAF) with Promax rotation is employed to analyze the factors that influence the research's agricultural machinery's risk reduction. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity was highly significant at a p-value of 0.05, implying that the data is suitable for the factor analysis. Furthermore, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy (KMO) was 0.903 and was more significant than 0.500, implying that the sample was adequate for the factor analysis. The result shows that experts (0.879), spare parts (0.841), and timely repair (0.823) are revealed to be the top three high loading factors that impact the risk reduction of agricultural machinery. A multiple regression analysis (MRA) is utilized to analyze the data collected from the structured questionnaires. Evidence from this study suggests that combining these financial resource factors have a large effect (F2 = 0.802) on the after-sales service of farm equipment. An analysis of the data using the structural equation modeling (SEM) procedure shows relative contributions of a better understanding of risk reduction for after-sale services on agricultural machinery. From the standardized estimates, the study reveals that all the hypotheses have been supported. Finally, the risk reduction model of the after-sales service has been certified by means of the method employed mentioned above. Furthermore, the thematic content analysis is employed to analyze the data from the focus-group interviews conducted both in South Africa and China. In conclusion, the findings obtained from the questionnaires and focus-group interviews do indeed meet the research questions and validate the objectives largely. The risk reduction of agricultural machinery can facilitate sustainable agri-machinery enterprises that can enhance and improve the agricultural economic growth. Finally, this research provides an empirical contribution to the socio-economic sphere and literature via which it can benefit the South African and Chinese agricultural economy and policy-making sector.
Readiness Assessment for Mining Projects
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Bekker, Giel; hardusmulder@gmail.com; Mulder, Hardus
The front–end planning phase of a project potentially has the biggest impact on the outcome of the implementation phase. Globally, significant research has been conducted into the relationship between the quality of front–end planning and the success of the implementation phase of a project. Several tools have been developed to assess the level of readiness of a project study to proceed into detail design and implementation. However, no such commonly available tool existed for mining projects. The available assessment tools are either generic, not specific to mining projects and therefore do not include many of the elements which are critical to mining projects, or the property of consulting firms. In order to create an Assessment Tool for Mining Project front–end planning, the first step was to evaluate the mining industry and identify all of the elements which should be addressed during a mining project study. This was done through a literature review (which included existing front–end planning evaluation tools), as well as focus groups and surveys. The result was a list of 180 elements which should be considered during a mining project study. To incorporate a metric structure for quantitative evaluation, the Project Definition Readiness Index (PDRI) format as utilized by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) was used. This resulted in the 180 elements being divided into four sections and 18 categories. Since not all elements contributed equally to project success, weights were assigned to each element. The weighting process involved asking experienced mining project professionals to assign weights to each element. After the data were reviewed and adjusted for normality, a weighted list of elements was created which would comprise the Readiness Assessment Tool (RAT) for mining projects. The weighting also provided a quantitative assessment value, based on which a decision can be made about whether or not to proceed to the next project phase. To validate the instrument, the completed RAT for Mining Projects was tested against completed projects. The validation process indicated that there was a significant correlation between the RAT score of a project, and the eventual implementation success. The validation process also highlighted some dominant performance indicators that could influence project results. The performance indicator relating to the performance of the completed project against expectations was found to have the most significant correlation with the RAT score and accounted for 39% of the variability. This was closely followed by the impact of change orders, which had the second–highest correlation to the RAT score (36.2%). Similarly, 8% of the variability in Cost Performance and 7.9% of the variability in Schedule Performance could be explained by the RAT score. The RAT score can explain 3.02% of the variability in the Operating Score of a project and 3.86% of the variability in the Customer Score. By creating a comprehensive, weighted list of elements to be addressed during the front–end phase of a mining project, the RAT for mining projects can assist project team members in coming to a common understanding of the areas which need to be studied, as well as the relative importance of the various elements. The most significant contribution of this study is that project teams can use the RAT as a self–assessment tool during any stage of the project study and identify the areas of the study which require more definition. Teams can also use the RAT to calculate an overall RAT rating at any stage, which will indicate the overall level of readiness to proceed into the next phase of the project. Through assessing the completeness of each of the 180 elements to determine a single RAT score, the RAT can assist project members, as well as decision–makers such as Boards of Directors, to make informed decisions regarding the approval of projects. Finally, depending on the accuracy and reliability of input data, the RAT should improve the probability of a successful project.
A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa : a South African informal settlement case study
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Lalk, Jorg; pokoye04@gmail.com; Okoye, Perpetua Ifeoma
Mitigating energy poverty requires a multi-criteria decision protocol integrating socio-economic, cultural, environmental, and technical systems, influencing energy access, and consumption. Situations of energy poverty are typical in rural and urban poor households, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These situations are commonly prevalent in informal settlements, sprawling across the periphery of South African metros. Majorities of informal households lack access to grid-electricity and consume local energy sources for their energy needs. There are ongoing government efforts directed to mitigating energy poverty among energy-poor households, such as informal households, through policies and subsidies. Socio-economic and cultural environments also redefine the extent to which energy poverty is mitigated in these households. At present, informal households are constantly and rapidly growing, and as a result, compromise policy effectiveness and other functional strategies, targeting to mitigating energy poverty in these households, and achieving universal energy access in South Africa. Accordingly, this research study adopted a multidisciplinary approach to understanding related matters of energy poverty based on energy policies; electricity access, and pricing; geospatial analysis; energy use and access; and management strategies, with emphasis on informal settlements in South Africa. The first part of the study reviewed energy pro-poor policies, relevant to improving energy access and energy-use efficiency in energy-poor households in South Africa. The study also investigated electricity access (access rates), connection costs (access costs), and electricity tariffs to understand historical precedents and forecast scenarios, and the relationships to gaining complete electricity access by 2030 in the City of Cape Town. The third part mapped and monitored informal areas to understand landscape processes and poverty with energy poverty propagations by Land Cover (LC) and Land-Cover Change (LCC) in the City of Cape Town. The fourth part of the research investigated energy-use patterns and other energy-related matters in a selected informal settlement - a typical case study of an energy-poor community in South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. The last part proposed and designed a novel System Reinforcing Model (SRM), an Energy Access Sustainability (EAS) management scheme, applicable to mitigating energy poverty in any energy-poor community. The study review validated government efforts in improving energy access in energy-poor households through commissioned energy pro-poor policies but not without drawbacks and proposed recommendations to support future policy reforms. The research also revealed iv A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: A South African informal settlement as case study. increasing patterns in historical trends of access rates, costs, and tariffs, and relationships between parameters within the assessment period (from 2010 to 2018). The forecast analyses (from 2019 to 2030) demonstrated that total electricity access could not be reached by 2030 without a shift in Business-As-Usual (BAU) patterns in the City of Cape Town. The LC conversions of informal areas revealed poverty with energy poverty propagations through landscape degradation processes - Persistence and Intensification - in the City of Cape Town. The research study further revealed poor energy use patterns and behaviour in the target Settlement. Informal households in the settlement mainly adopted local energy fuels and appliances in satisfying household energy needs. The novel part of the research study described the application of a systems approach - Systems engineering (SE) and Systems Thinking (SsT) - into energy poverty and access processes to developing the new SRM. SE and SsT concept analyses were employed in identifying and integrating four operating system interfaces in these processes into the new SRM. The new SRM simulated complex systems and elements within the interfaces and categorized them as design decisions and system designs. These systems and elements were grounded in energy-use patterns and behaviour, energy access, and EAS, as well as socio-economic, cultural, technical, and environmental features. Arrays of feedback loops in reinforcing patterns in the new SRM modelled the interactions between, and within, design decisions and system designs, for future energy access rebranding, based on significant sustainability outcomes of favourably coalesced system interfaces. SRM was applied in the target settlement, where the model’s significance was validated. Based on its multi-criteria decision approach, among its many features, SRM revealed system parts instigating energy poverty situations and limiting EAS in the target settlement. SRM tailored energy access solutions, whilst integrating significant outcomes of the whole research study, to advancing energy poverty mitigation and EAS in the target settlement.
A critical evaluation of risk on large scale logistics projects
(University of Pretoria, 2020-02-22) Pretorius, Leon; Jiang, Dongdong; xudf1123@163.com; Xu, Dafeng
As an important basis in decision-making, risk assessment has been applied in many fields. However, most risk analyses of logistics projects are still at their infancy, wherein qualitative methods are applied. Performing further qualitative and quantitative analyses of the risk of logistics projects is meaningful. This thesis aims to thoroughly analyse the effects of risk factors on project objectives to illustrate the economic goals of investment and the possibility of realisation. Hence, it can promote scientific decision-making by investors, which is the main issue in this thesis. Large-scale logistics projects are characterised by high risk, high investment, and high professionalism. This thesis applies risk assessment to logistics projects and divides the risk assessment of logistics projects into two levels. In the first level, various risk factors in the process of investment, construction and operation of the logistics projects are fully considered, and a set of risk comprehensive evaluation index system for the logistics projects is established. At this level, this thesis assigns light to each factor, judges the degree of risk of each factor in logistics projects and evaluates the risk degree of the logistics projects via fuzzy comprehensive measurement method (FCMM). It proposes a logistic alliance risk identification and analysis method based on the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm and penalty function method to address the limitation of existing methods, such as FCMM. This proposed method is called PSO–analytic hierarchy process (PSO–AHP). On the basis of the introduced index system and methods, this thesis uses Hanjin Shipping as a novel case to show how risk evaluation is performed. Results show that both methods can be used to predict the risk of Hanjin Shipping, and management risk is the main risk faced by Hanjin Shipping. This finding is consistent with the predicted results. The contents of this thesis provide meaningful results for actual application. Thus, the models and index system applied in this thesis (FCMM and PSO–AHP) can be used to perform risk measurement. In the second level, combined with the results of the overall risk assessment of the logistics projects, this thesis provides several suggestions on risk prevention for these kind of logistics projects. This thesis not only measures the risk of large-scale logistics projects but also provides several strategies to improve the management of logistics projects and reduce the probability of risk in the Chinese context. Moreover, this thesis generates suggestions for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa. The main contents of this thesis can be summarised as follows. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter briefly introduces the background of large-scale logistics projects, explains the purpose and significance of the research and introduces the main research issues and innovations. It also briefly introduces the structure of this thesis. The second chapter comprises a review of previous studies. It mainly reviews and summarizes relevant literature on risk theory and logistics risk to provide a solid background analysis for the remaining part of this thesis. The third and the fourth chapters are about the methodologies and indicators used in this thesis. The third chapter summarises and introduces the main methods used in the risk assessment for the logistics projects. It focuses on the methods used in this thesis. The fourth chapter presents a systematic analysis of the various risks faced in the process of investment, construction and operation of logistics projects. It appropriately enumerates the main analysis of this thesis, namely, the various risks in large-scale logistics projects. An index system is also constructed in this chapter. The fifth and sixth chapters focus on the specific operation process of the models used in this thesis. These chapters focus on the data analysis according to the models proposed in previous chapters, and the results of quantitative analysis are mainly discussed. The seventh chapter is aimed at the risk prevention of large-scale logistics projects. The eighth chapter is the research summary and outlook, where it summarises the conclusions and shortcomings of this research, discusses the innovation of this thesis from the analysis and indicates further research directions. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. (1) On the basis of China’s Belt and Road strategy, this thesis pays special interest on the risk analysis of large-scale logistics projects. With the development of Chinese economics and special relationship with South Africa, cooperating in aspects where logistics projects play a great connecting role becomes increasingly important for these countries Thus, ensuring how the risk of China’s large-scale logistics projects is sufficiently low becomes increasingly important. The methods and results in this thesis can be applied to the large-scale logistics projects in China and South Africa. (2) Many studies on risk assessment issues obtain risk factors using Delphi method (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963; Fan, 2019; Dufour et al., 2017). This method usually suffers from the fact that the experts’ knowledge, ability and experience limit their personal judgement method, and the recognition result is influenced by the subjective factors of the experts. This thesis does not use AHP method on it own but focuses on the usage of work breakdown structure (WBS) method to determine the risk factors of logistics construction projects, which can provide a reasonable risk index system. As WBS can let people carefully build an index system from each aspect of the large-scale logistics projects. (3) This thesis generates a PSO method to PSO–AHP method and applies it in the risk assessment of large-scale logistics projects, in which Hanjin Shipping is taken as an example in a novel way. Many studies primarily use FCMM to perform the risk assessment. However, limited research focuses on the use of PSO–AHP methods on the risk assessment of large-scale logistics projects. This thesis not only uses FCMM to handle risk assessment but also uses PSO–AHP method and then selects the better method on the basis of certain criteria. By doing so, this thesis provides an excellent example for researchers to select between the two models for risk assessment. (4) This thesis not only measures the risk of large-scale logistics projects but also provides several strategies that can improve the management of logistics projects to reduce the chance of risk happening based on actual situations. It also generates suggestions for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa. As the measurement of risk in terms of large-scale logistics projects is an instrument for people to prevent risk, each method should be used to guide the development in actual situations. Thus, this thesis provides several strategy suggestions that can reduce the risk of large-scale logistics projects in China and South Africa by combining the results obtained from models and actual situations in China and South Africa.
A Roadmap for the Titanium Metal Industry of South Africa
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Van der Lingen, Elma; Botha, Anthon; nicky.roux7@gmail.com; Roux, Nicolene
The South African titanium metal industry is underdeveloped and has a fragmented value chain. The aim of this study was to investigate fragmentation within the local titanium metal value chain by using industry technology roadmapping as a tool to comment on the completeness of each value chain stage. Roadmapping for the period 2021 to 2030 was applied to a novel value chain produced for the local titanium metal industry. Within the fragmented value chain, it was indicated that from the eight identified stages only four were established locally. The identified stages of the titanium metal value chain were: stage 1 - mineral reserves; stage 2 - slag; stage 3 – TiCl4; stage 4 – sponge; stage 5 – melted products; stage 6 – mill products; stage 7 – metal powder production and stage 8 – metal powder products. Stages 1, 2, 6 and 8 are already established in South Africa. The roadmapping type selected to address the fragmented South African titanium metal value chain was an industry technology roadmap. This type of roadmap focuses on forecasting the development, commercialisation and deployment of new technologies. The overall industry roadmap was designed using individual roadmaps for the value chain stages. These individual roadmaps were used as a guideline on what to include and what to exclude from the overall industry roadmap. The technology roadmap layout consisted of five layers namely market, product, technology, R&D, and resources. These roadmapping layers were applied to each stage of the titanium metal value chain resulting in the production of individual roadmaps for each stage. The roadmap model was based on the three fundamental questions in roadmapping: “Where are we now?” addressing the current state of each value chain stage, “Where do we want to go?” addressing the vision elements for each value chain stage and “How will we get there?” addressing how the vision elements would be achieved for each value chain stage. The methodology used in this study relied on data collection from two main sources. The first was primary data collected through conducting interviews and a survey. The main aim of the interviews (conducted with industry and R&D experts) was to establish a vision element for each of the titanium metal value chain stages which was validated though the survey. Secondary data was then combined with the collected expert driven data in order to follow the selected roadmapping approach and complete a roadmap for each of the value chain stages following the specified layers (top-down approach). The vision elements were then combined to obtain an overall South African titanium metal value chain vision. The consolidated vision, based on what should be included in the South African titanium metal value chain and what not, was used as driver for compiling the overall South African titanium metal industry roadmap. This was done by considering and combining the required actions needed from the value chain stage roadmaps (top-down visioning approach) to achieve the identified overall roadmap (bottom-up visioning approach). The newly developed vision for the South African titanium metal industry is: South Africa should continue to mine and upgrade titanium mineral concentrates in a sustainable and efficient manner. The country should commit to the establishment of two additional stages within the titanium metal value chain, which is TiCl4 production and titanium metal powder production. Capacity and expertise within the two already developed downstream stages (mill product and powder product production) should be expanded for both the local and the export markets. Within the mill product market, the focus should be on producing products for the medical, chemical and aerospace industries while the powder product markets should focus on medical, aerospace, leisure and automotive industries. In addition to the vision and roadmap establishment, other outcomes of this study indicated that the South African titanium metal industry is fragmented and should remain fragmented over the next decade. This thesis presents novel research on the production of a roadmap for a fragmented industry. To the best knowledge of the author, no other industry roadmap approach has first considered the production of individual roadmaps in a fragmented value chain and then combine them into a single overall industry technology roadmap. South Africa can apply the newly obtained titanium industry vision and roadmap, since there was no prior vision that addressed the development of the industry’s fragmented value chain. The newly produced roadmap can be used to advance and develop the South African titanium metal industry in order to improve local value addition to the already existing resources.
A systematic design of e-commerce logistic from collaborative management theory perspective
(University of Pretoria, 2020) Pretorius, Leon; Jiang, Dongdong; lhq5983442@163.com; Liu, Huaqiong
In the 21st century, e-commerce (electronic commerce) has witnessed explosive development, while the problems such as the imperfect logistics system and backward information platform exposed are also increasing. This research thesis focuses on the design of electronic commerce project logistics under collaborative theory. Firstly, this research analyses the current situation of e-commerce, and explains relevant theories of system engineering and collaborative theory. Secondly, a management framework of e-commerce under collaborative theory is discussed. Then it is about the construction of a new and novel logistics system, that is, a four-stage radial-spoke logistics network containing e-commerce hubs, e-commerce regional distribution centres, e-commerce physical stores, and e-commerce cooperatives. The existing logistics mode is innovated and developed with the “collaborative distribution” mode proposed, and the entire supply chain is connected through the four-stage radial-spoke logistics network, enabling all parties involved in the supply chain to achieve collaboration. Then based on the network, containers are differentiated and standardized into four classes. What’s more, with the design and development of a collaborative logistics system, this thesis presents countermeasures to integrate e-commerce with its internal management platform. So the growing information is effectively managed, timely and correct decision-making information and decision support are provided. Furthermore, previous e-commerce platform is strengthened and the collaborative theory is fundamentally applied in a novel context. Finally, combining together logistics alliance, e-commerce platforms as well as its management system, this research is aimed to improve e-commerce collaborative management and promote e-commerce collaborative theory.
The South African polycentric water resource governance-management nexus : parlaying an institutional agent and structured social engagement
(University of Pretoria, 2018) Brent, Alan Colin; jhb@impalawater.co.za; Boonzaaier, Johann H.
Water resource concerns, coupled with subsequent intensive needs for energy and food production along with the greatest deterioration of ecosystems seen during the last 50 years were identified as a global crisis in the 20th century. The World Economic Forum rated the world water supply crisis as the fourth most worrying global risk in terms of risk likelihood and risk impact. Natural water resources are seriously threatened by the growing population, outstripping the capacity of the earth to produce subsistence for human beings. South Africa is restricted as a water scarce country. Despite its progressive water laws and policies, a review undertaken for Africa Water Vision 2025, revealed many critical shortcomings and failures. Evidence reveal that critical constraints in the governance-management process of implementing environmental policies and WRM care lie in a lack of efficient trans-disciplinary dialogue between policymakers, scientists, water managers and users and governance structures. To address the governance and institutional void, the fundamental research question sought to determine whether a local institutional agent could be parlayed to bridge the fragmentation between multiple users and governmental institutional structures and levels. Through longitudinal action research, the unique case of a mature self-steering local water management institution, the Impala Water Users Association in the Pongola River catchment in northern KZN of South Africa was evaluated. The study examined engagement with local stake holders to execute water resource governance and management in a polycentric multi-stakeholder scenario in South Africa. It aimed to restore and protect the resilience of the natural environment that is critical for fresh water resources to ensure sustainable long term water security of the Pongola River catchment. A number of vulnerabilities and weak points of society as well as spheres of governmental authorities were identified. While South Africa experiences an era of institutional and governance uncertainty, it was demonstrated and is submitted that the well positioned water users’ associations in South Africa could fill the governance-management void left on a catchment scale. A polycentric approach to govern and manage water as a common pool resource was possible through the facilitation and structured engagement of a stable and suitable agent. While it is acknowledged that multi stakeholder engagement and water resource management is highly complex and taxing, it is argued that cooperative action among users can succeed in achieving many mutual water security goals and solving their immediate threats on the local scale. A polycentric institutional model is proposed by linking different role player clusters around a specific facilitating institutional agent
Convergence from chaos to order in capital projects using chaos attractors – an explorative study
(University of Pretoria, 2020-01) Bekker, Michiel, Christiaan; gunther.hasse@gmail.com; Hasse, Gunther Willy
Successful capital projects contribute to sustain society and accelerate socio-economic development due to its inherent multiplier effect. The linear project management paradigm does not seem to stem either historical or current capital project cost overruns and failures. Accelerative societal change in terms of trends, megatrends, paradigm shifts, Black Swan events, and disruptive technologies require capital projects to be executed in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment that is expected to result in more chaos and failures of capital projects. This research contributes to the non-linear ‘management by chaos’ paradigm and develops and test chaos theories and models for employment in capital projects. The objective of this research is to explore if chaos attractors could cause local convergence (first research question) and overall convergence (second research question) from chaos to order in capital projects and thereby contribute to reduce capital project cost overruns and failures. Using the grand chaos theory and literature references to chaos attractor metaphors as a starting point, six lower-level chaos theories and variance models were built for fixed-point attractors, fixed-point repellers, limit-cycle attractors, torus attractors, butterfly attractors and strange attractors. One lower level-theory and variance model were built for a landscape that comprised of the six chaos attractors. A randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum model was derived from literature to represent the context within which dynamic capital project behaviour unfolds. Assuming a constructivist research paradigm, a two-round qualitative explorative research strategy was employed with the capital project as the unit of analysis. The Nominal Group Technique was employed in the first round of interviews with 12 experienced capital project managers to obtain grounded definitions, an understanding of the randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum model and the concept of chaos attractors. Voice recordings from interviews were transcribed and content analysis was done using the Atlas.ti software. Five capital project archetypes were identified by respondents. This was followed by a second round of deep individual interviews using semi-structured questions with 14 experienced capital project managers. Content analysis was used to confirm the archetypes and test the transferability and convergence effect from chaos to order of the six chaos metaphors and one landscape of the six chaos metaphors to the capital project domain. Evidence was found in terms of examples, characteristics, value statements and variance model scoring to suggest that local convergence in capital projects from chaos to order could occur as a result of the six individual chaos attractors. Similarly, that overall project convergence could occur as a result of a specific constellation of these six chaos attractors located across the capital project life cycle. Nine convergence-divergence archetypes were defined by respondents that described the dynamic behaviour of different types of capital projects in the randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum. It was also found that achieving capital project convergence from chaos towards an ordered project state, using chaos attractors, do not imply project success. However, an ordered project state could aid the minimisation of capital project cost overruns. “Chaos theory considers the convergence from chaos to order a natural phenomenon in capital projects that is brought about by the following six chaos attractors: fixed-point, repeller, limit-cycle, torus, butterfly and strange”. This exploratory research found evidence to support the existence of this grand theory and its associated mid-range and lower-level theories, but further research is required to validate the generalisation of these findings.
The Effect of Project Types and Project Life Cycle Phases on Leadership Style
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Steyn, Herman; Bond-Barnard, T.J. (Taryn Jane); suzaan.pretorius@up.ac.za; Pretorius, Suzaan
With the current trend towards empowered teams, hierarchical company structures are increasingly being replaced by team-based ones. As a result, a shift in the classic understanding of leadership is needed and research on leadership in project management is increasing. Two major concepts have developed in recent years: shared and vertical leadership styles. This thesis reports on the development of a new Model of leadership styles that considers the effect of project types and the project life cycle phases on leadership style (vertical versus shared leadership), and how an appropriate balance between the two styles influences the likelihood of project management success. A web-based questionnaire yielded 313 complete responses and the data was analysed using hypothesis testing. Based on this empirical work and relevant literature, a novel Model is proposed. The Model explains how project types and life cycle phases influence the appropriateness of different leadership styles, and it guides the practitioner to selecting appropriate leadership styles for specific situations. Recommendations for furthering the model are discussed.
Dynamics of Technology Acceptance to the Sustainability of eHealth Systems in Resource Constrained Environments
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Pretorius, Leon; Erasmus, Louwrence; getnet.fanta@up.ac.za; Fanta, Getnet Bogale
Healthcare in developing countries is confronted with a shortage of skilled healthcare workforce, medical errors, inequity and inefficient healthcare service delivery. Innovative ways of solving healthcare problems through Information and communication technology (ICT) can improve the efficiency, effectiveness, access and quality of the healthcare system. Despite highly anticipated benefits of eHealth system to improve the efficiency of healthcare delivery, the healthcare had barely begun to take advantage of ICT mainly in a resource-constrained environment. The implementation of eHealth systems in developing countries could not proceed beyond the pilot phase to demonstrate sustainability in a large-scale rollout. The general research problem in this thesis focuses on how factors of eHealth implementation interplay to influence technology and information use to ensure the long-term sustainability of eHealth in resource-constrained settings. Systems thinking and system dynamics modelling method were used to handle complexity in the implementation of eHealth. Moreover, sustainability theory, technology acceptance model (TAM) and IS success models were used to develop a system dynamics model of sustainable eHealth implementation. The socio-technical, techno-organizational and techno-economic factors of sustainable eHealth systems are discussed to address the research objectives. The system dynamics simulation model of sustainable eHealth implementation is developed, verified, validated and tested. This applied research study focused on addressing the problems of sustainable eHealth systems implementation in resource-constrained environments. The model-based theory-building research study followed in this thesis aimed at enhancing the understanding of sustainable eHealth implementation in a resource-constrained environment to maximize the acceptance of eHealth by the end-users. Both the ontological and epistemological assumptions of this research study supported the position of the constructivist research paradigm. Methodologically, this study mainly applies qualitative research methodology which is common in the interpretive approach. Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were used to elicit information from purposefully sampled eHMIS and SmartCare health facilities in Ethiopia. Field notes, document review, interview and focus group discussion data were analysed using ATLAS.ti software. Vensim DSS Version 6.3D was used to model and simulate the system dynamics model. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach was followed in the systematic literature review of techno-economic factors. The simulation results confirmed that the ‘effectiveness of training’ was a dominant factor to improve the ‘acceptance rate’ of eHMIS and SmartCare in the socio-technical dimension of sustainable eHealth implementation. The adequacy of ICT and healthcare workforce within eHealth implementing facility and end-users’ familiarity with digital technology showed a stronger influence on the ‘acceptance rate’ of both eHMIS and SmartCare systems in the techno-organizational dimension. An economic incentive, funding duration, funding amount, funding source and economic benefit are identified as techno-economic factors that influence the long-term sustainability of eHealth projects.
An Assessment of the South African Photovoltaic Sector within the Technological Innovation System Framework
(University of Pretoria, 2018) Walwyn, David; dawidmail@mweb.co.za; van Niekerk, Dawid Gideon LeRoux
Globally, a strong transition is taking place: conventional coal-based and nuclear energy-generating methods are being phased out as the world is advancing towards cleaner renewable energy production, triggered by increasing awareness of the threat of global warming and climate change. South Africa faces a major energy crisis and is in the process of expanding its energy infrastructure. The main challenge addressed in this study is the context of a country with a struggling economy, a high unemployment rate and widespread poverty. Photovoltaic (PV) energy could provide a long-term solution to the existing energy crisis, potentially develop and enhance local economic activity and make a significant contribution to eradicating poverty. This study investigates the strengths and potential barriers to diffusion, influencing the growth and adoption of PV energy by applying the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework approach in the context of South Africa. Every well-functioning TIS comprises system functions fulfilling critical activities and processes that, in combination, strengthen the system. The TIS framework approach evaluates the seven core system functions, namely entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development, diffusion of knowledge, guidance of the search, market formation, resource mobilisation and advocacy/resistance to change. An exploratory case study was applied in the context of the TIS framework to evaluate the system functions and the link between them through an online questionnaire using a comprehensive sampling technique. The performance of each system function was measured using a Likert scale, whereafter the system functions were mapped graphically in order to compare their performance to one another. The extent of development of the PV infrastructure was determined by evaluating the system functions according to specific indicators relating to each function. The system functions were then mapped graphically, to indicate that the best performing functions had been calculated to be the resource mobilisation function and the market formulating function, and the worst performing functions the entrepreneurial activities function and the knowledge development function. The overall result achieved by the analysis was unsatisfactory, indicating the presence of barriers limiting the development and growth of the PV industry. Some of the most important barriers were found to be lack of funding, lack of knowledge, insufficient influence of the role of government and regulatory organisations, insufficient knowledge development, insufficient guidance, lack of advocacy and lobbying in promoting PV and insufficient knowledge shared through collaboration and networks. The study was concluded by suggesting policies targeted at removing the barriers.
Competition between key project participants during project execution : a system dynamics approach
(University of Pretoria, 2019-07-31) Pretorius, Leon; u12279422@tuks.co.za; Chitongo, Mutizwa Alfred
Project management is one of the most important forms of management due to its versatility, demand and widespread use in almost every field and organisation. Yet, poor project performance continues to be commonplace. Existing literature highlighted conflict as one of the inevitable challenges encountered during project execution owing to the inherent interdependencies and interactions among project stakeholders, who often have different objectives and expectations, and take different decisions and control actions aimed at protecting their different and competing performance measures and targets. Though often intendedly rational, such different controls turn out to be mutually-exclusive, resulting in the use of competition (aimed at win-lose results) as a conflict-handling style. Indeed, some previous researchers highlighted the prevalence of such competition during project execution. However, project dynamics emanating from such competition are largely under-researched in the reviewed literature. This research study sought to address this gap. Specifically, it investigated, using system dynamics: how competition develops between two key project participants (client and engineering consultant) during project execution; how the competition influence both project performance and the engineering consultant’s project business performance; and, how the competition can be improved to yield win-win long-term results. It followed a mixed methods research design, incorporating the system dynamics approach. Firstly, appropriate dynamic hypotheses and a system dynamics conceptual model of the competition were formulated from a combination of existing literature, an embedded multiple-case study, and systems thinking. Then, an appropriate system dynamics simulation model of the competition was formulated. Data gathered for 18 unique raw water infrastructure-related projects were used for model calibration, as well as simulation and optimisation experiments. Simulations and impact analyses results were counterintuitive, highlighting the dynamic complexity of the competition. Firstly, client project cost controls (aimed at reducing project cost overrun) generated some unintended effects that increased the project cost overrun. Secondly, engineering consultant project revenue controls (aimed at reducing project revenue shortfall) generated some unintended effects that increased the project revenue shortfall. Thirdly, the competition (aimed at win-lose results) negatively influenced both project performance (client’s interest) and engineering consultant’s project business performance (lose-lose long-term results). Policy optimisation results suggested key interventions that improved the competition, enhancing both project performance and engineering consultant’s project business performance (win-win long-term results). Firstly, the two key project participants need to adequately apply systems thinking, recognising that: they are interdependent subsystems of a bigger system (the project) whose emergent properties include project performance and engineering consultant’s project business performance, as neither participant can individually achieve his/her performance targets; and thus, they cannot afford to operate in ‘silos’, taking project controls aimed at win-lose results. Secondly, they need to fully align their individual performance targets, as this eliminates/minimises the performance gaps that trigger the competing project controls. This research study made some novel contributions that expand knowledge in a number of areas. Firstly, the model calibrations, simulations, impact analyses and policy optimisations experiments were conducted separately for each set of unique projects (10 asset management planning and support-related, and 8 asset-renewal related), with subsequent comparison and discussion of the results aimed at enhancing the validity of the above-highlighted research results. This is a novel extension to the existing system dynamics model validation body of knowledge, currently limited to the use of only one project or multiple projects of the same type. Secondly, the formulated system dynamics simulation model of the competition is unique as no appropriate system dynamics model could be identified, in the reviewed literature, that considered competition among project participants, with their different and competing performance measures and targets during project execution. It is a novel extension to the existing project dynamics models (that only focus on one project participant) and helps project managers to deepen their understanding of project dynamics. Thirdly, the finding that the competition (aimed at win-lose results) yields lose-lose long-term results provides an alternative explanation as to why poor project performance is common. This and the recommended interventions that yield win-win long-term results are novel contributions to conflict handling and project performance bodies of knowledge. Lastly, the findings highlighted that the engineering consultant’s project business performance is another key emergent property of the project system, like project performance, essential to yield win-win long-term results. This is a novel contribution to the application of systems thinking to project management body of knowledge, currently narrowly focussed on only project performance.
An Investigation into Requirements Volatility using Systems Dynamics Modelling - The Design of a Requirements Engineering Research Tool
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Pretorius, Leon; Benade, Siebert; nscribante@npsc.co.za; Scribante, Naudé Pieter
A project aims to deliver a system, product or service that satisfies the needs and desires of an end user. A large body of research exists in the field of requirements engineering, which reviews the problem of eliciting and implementing the actual requirements for a given situation. Despite all the research conducted to date, requirements remain a key challenge within the delivery of a project, product or service. The challenges in the requirements engineering domain can be traced to several factors, including that the requirements engineering domain is a complex socio-technical system. This complexity makes research in this field difficult since it is not possible to set up research experiments if the researcher is not involved and if the experiment cannot repeatedly produce the same outcome. A research approach is thus required that evaluates and researches the requirements engineering process from within the context it occurs. This approach allows the researcher to gain an increased understanding of the requirements engineering process with the aim of improving it. This thesis proposes the design of a requirements engineering research tool by following a design science research methodology. The tool can be used by researchers and requirements engineering practitioners as an investigative artefact for researching the requirements engineering domain. This thesis makes the following unique, novel and consequential contributions to the scientific and academic body of knowledge: 1. Unique, primary research contribution a. The development and the application of an elicitation-diffusion model for use in requirements engineering. b. The research methodology and method presented is not only applicable to the requirements engineering domain but also the larger complex research domain as well as the complex socio-technical research domain. 2. Novel research contribution a. The application of a design science research methodology in the field of requirements engineering. b. The enhancement of the design cycle as used in the design science research methodology with relevant elements from the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Systems Engineering Handbook. c. The definition of the object-of-study when designing a research tool to include the original artefact and problem context as the new problem context. d. The application of Soft Systems Methodology to the design of a research tool. 3. Consequential research contribution a. The use of the structure of a causal loop diagram to identify the contributing factors to observed phenomena in the requirements engineering domain.
Evaluating the Management, Measurement and Prediction of Business Competitiveness
(University of Pretoria, 2019) Visser, J.K. (Jacobus); Pretorius, Leon; schalk.grobbelaar@gmail.com; Grobbelaar, Schalk
A company is a complex system that operates within an even more complex ecosystem. For companies to survive and grow, they must remain competitive. To achieve this, companies should understand how they influence and are influenced by the ecosystem. In his thesis, Evaluating the management, measurement and prediction of business competitiveness, it is proposed that multiple correlation tests are used to identify quantifiable predictors of financial competitiveness for companies. To test this proposition, two case studies were performed. The first on Sawmilling companies in South Africa and the second on companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The multiple correlation tests illustrated that it is possible to identify quantifiable predictors of financial competitiveness. These predictors in combination with decision-making techniques can be utilised to predict the financial competitiveness of a company or group of companies.
Scientometric assessment of R&D priority areas in South Africa : a comparison with other BRICS countries
(University of Pretoria, 2018) Pouris, Anastassios; makhoba.xolani@tuks.co.za; Makhoba, Xolani Simphiwe
The study aimed to look at the priority areas of South African terms of technology development and the impact thereof. In terms of publications, a bibliometric analysis of selected research priority areas in South Africa was done using the Web of Science database for the period 2001 - 2015. The performance of the country in the areas of biotechnology, energy, astronomy and palaeontology in terms of the publication output in these areas is compared using two classic scientometric indicators, the activity and attractivity indices. These are important priority areas as highlighted in various government policy documents and the aim was to identify if outputs in these fields are corresponding with government policy. The study also identifies leading institutions in the country in terms of publication output, while the performance is also benchmarked against that of the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) group of countries, as well as Egypt. It is found that South Africa has a relatively high output in research areas in which it enjoys geographical advantage, such as astronomy and palaeontology, and compares favourably with comparator countries in all areas reviewed. In terms of the institutional profile, and based on publication outputs over the period considered, the University of Cape Town is a leader in energy, the University of Stellenbosch in biotechnology, the University of the Witwatersrand in palaeontology, and the National Research Foundation in the area of astronomy. The study then evaluated the priority areas in terms of patents. It was found that South Africa is the most prolific producer of patents in the African continent. This study assessed the inventive activity through patents registered by South African researchers worldwide, using the WIPO database. The focus of the study was on research priority areas documented in the South African government policy documents. The research priority areas considered were ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, climate change, energy and health. Patents in the areas were compared with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries and Egypt. The comparison was done using the revealed technological advantage, sometimes referred to as the specialisation index. It was found that two African countries have not increased their patent share significantly and are yet to find their specialisation. It was found that while South Africa is doing well in terms of patenting in general, with patents showing an upward trend, the profile of inventions being patented are not necessarily aligned with the priority areas as documented in government policy. Another question that remained was how South Africa is progressing in developing emerging technologies, with nanotechnology and nanoscience as a case study. This is one of the country’s priorities and a fast-growing scientific research area internationally, and is classified as an important emerging research area. In response to this, South African researchers and institutions have also increased their efforts in this area. A bibliometric study of articles, as indexed in the Web of Science, considered the development in this field, including the growth in literature, collaboration profile and the research areas that are more within the country’s context. It also looked at public institutions that are more active in this arena, including government policy considerations as guided by the Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Strategy launched in 2005. The study found that the number of nanotechnology publications have shown remarkable growth ever since. The articles are spread through many journals with Electrochimica acta having the most articles, followed by Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology. These publications fall within the traditional domains of chemistry and physics. In terms of the institutional profile and based on publication outputs over the period reviewed, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research is a leading producer of publications in nanotechnology, followed by the University of Witwatersrand - both institutions are based in Gauteng Province. There is a high level of international collaboration with different countries within this field, the most productive of which is with India, then USA, and thirdly, China, as measured through co-authorship. Finally, R&D efficiency, as expressed by the publication and patent outputs in scientific fields compared with the overall investment in R&D, was studied. The study focussed on the two important fields in South Africa; nanotechnology and biotechnology. In addition to this, South Africa’s R&D efficiency in all scientific fields was compared to that of the other BRICS countries. Data on R&D expenditure was used as input in the R&D process to achieve this comparison. The study found that, within South Africa, nanotechnology has been doing well on both patent and publications produced per US dollar spent on research development. The efficiency in terms of publications in this field started to fall slightly in 2013, to be equivalent to that of biotechnology. In context of the BRICS countries, it was found that South Africa has the highest R&D efficiency as measured by both patents and publications. This may offer some lessons to its bigger BRICS partners in terms of best practice in keeping the cost low and productivity high despite a relatively small science system. Relevant literature reviewed in this research includes the use of bibliometrics methods for science and technology studies. The priority areas and the country-specific issues are also discussed, with particular emphasis to challenges in developing countries. While the study focussed on developing countries, the BRICS grouping, mainstream literature provided a useful background, especially with respect to designing the methodologies for the data collection. The conceptual models discussed in this study – the TENs and the Triple helix – all emphasise the multi-agency approach to innovation, with the government being just one of the actors in the innovation ecosystem. The low level of industrial involvement in development of the priority areas, as indicated in patenting and publication trends, indicates that this one important player is missing in the system that should include all the players, which are the academia, industry and government. Strategies should be put in place to incentivise private sector R&D investment to raise the GERD that is currently very low when compared to other countries.

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