• A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Salisu, Sulaiman; Salisu, Subair (Springer, 2024-10)

  In this study, we develop the first daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Nigeria, which was previously not covered in recent EPU indices. The need to track economic uncertainties in Nigeria becomes ...
• Forecasting international financial stress : the role of climate risks 

  Del Fava, Santino; Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian; Rognone, Lavinia (Elsevier, 2024-04)

  We study the predictive value of climate risks for subsequent financial stress in a sample of daily data running from October 2006 to December 2022 of thirteen countries, which include China, ten European Union (EU) ...
• Profit shifting from Nigeria to Europe : the impact on human rights 

  Etter-Phoya, Rachel; Murray, Stuart; Hall, Stephen George; Masiya, Michael; O'Hare, Bernadette (Public Library of Science, 2025-03)

  The United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that everyone is entitled to economic and social rights essential to survive and thrive (Articles 25 and 26) and everyone is entitled to a social and international ...
• Policymaking in periods of structural changes and structural breaks : rolling windows revisited 

  Giannellis, Nikolaos; Hall, Stephen George; Kouretas, Georgios P.; Tavlas, George S.; Wang, Yongli (Wiley, 2025-04)

  Early studies that used rolling windows found it to be a useful forecasting technique. These studies were, by-and-large, based on pre-2000 data, which were nonstationary. Subsequent work, based on stationary data from the ...
• Fast two-stage variational Bayesian approach to estimating panel spatial autoregressive models with unrestricted spatial weights matrices 

  Gefang, Deborah; Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S. (Taylor and Francis, 2025)

  We propose a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet–Laplace shrinkage priors, we uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional ...
• Does one size fit all? The country-specific effects of ECB monetary policy 

  Gefang, Deborah; Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S.; Wang, Yongli (Elsevier, 2025-06)

  We investigate the way that a change in the ECB's monetary policy affects the members of the euro area in terms of the main macroeconomic aggregates – including inflation and output. Our data set consists of sixteen countries ...
• Can AIDS education reduce HIV stigma? Evidence from Zimbabwe 

  Njokwe, Getrude; Kijima, Yoko (Taylor and Francis, 2025-01)

  HIV stigma remains a barrier to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa. This study uses Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey data to examine how education reduces HIV stigma, focusing on two key ...
• Who saves more, the naive or the sophisticated agent? 

  Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander (Elsevier, 2024-07)

  This paper studies discrete time finite horizon life-cycle models with arbitrary discount functions and iso-elastic per period power utility with concavity parameter. We distinguish between the savings behavior of a ...
• The impact of the digital economy and institutional quality in promoting low-carbon energy transition 

  Hwang, Young Kyu; Venter, Alanda (Elsevier, 2025-01)

  Given the threat of climate change, the renewable energy transition will play a pivotal role in reaching net-zero goals. The digital economy and institutional quality are considered key enablers of the rapid deployment of ...
• A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the southern African customs union countries 

  Molepo, Event P.; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (Routledge, 2024)

  This study investigates the direction of causality between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the SACU countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Eswatini (Swaziland). The TodaYamamoto augmented Granger ...
• Herding behaviour and monetary policy : evidence from the ZAR market 

  Sibande, Xolani (Elsevier, 2024-06)

  We investigated the presence of herding and its interactions with monetary policy in the ZAR market. We achieved this using both the standard herding tests and Sim and Zhou’s (2015) quantile-on-quantiles regressions. ...
• Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices : does sentiment matter? 

  Bonato, Matteo; Cepni, Oguzhan; Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian (Wiley, 2024-09)

  We analyze the out-of-sample predictive power of sentiment for the realized volatility of agricultural commodity price returns. We use high-frequency intra-day data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate ...
• Gold market volatility and REITs' returns during tranquil and turbulent episodes 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Akinsomi, Omokolade; Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse; Hammed, Yinka S. (Elsevier, 2024-10)

  We analyze the predictability of REIT returns based on gold market volatility for 11 sectors and five regions. Our findings show higher gains during volatile gold market conditions, but results vary in tranquil and ...
• Migration and inflation nexus under high and low interest rate environments : some panel data evidence 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Muhammad, Rabia Abdul; Saliu, Mojeed O. (Wiley, 2024-12)

  This study analyzes the relationship between migration and inflation as well as the intervening role of interest rates in selected OECD countries from 1995 to 2020, covering periods of turbulence and tranquillity. The ...
• Professor Martin Wittenberg, 1962-2024 

  Dinkelman, Taryn; Kerr, Andrew; Naidoo, Jesse (Wiley, 2025)

  Martin Wittenberg was born in Bethel, Germany, in 1962; he died in Cape Town in 2024. He made major contributions to the intellectual life of South Africa through his scholarship, mentorship and public service. The three ...
• The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption : evidence from South Africa 

  Ye, Yuxiang; Koch, Steven F.; Ye, Xianming (Elsevier, 2025-03)

  Climate change is expected to negatively affect Africa, possibly leading to increased energy needs. However, meeting that need could prove problematic; more than a decade of load-shedding in South Africa is suggestive in ...
• A note on climate change and growth dynamics 

  Gupta, Rangan; Nandnaba, Sarah; Jiang, Wei (Elsevier, 2024-12)

  Climate change is, perhaps, the most important of challenges currently facing humankind, with the potential to have health and welfare implications by imposing a sizeable aggregate risk to the economy. Given this, and in ...
• Sectoral corporate profits and long-run stock return volatility in the United States : a GARCH-MIDAS approach 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Isah, Kazeem O.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula Ephraim (Wiley, 2025-03)

  This study aims to examine the usefulness of corporate profits in predicting the return volatility of sectoral stocks in the United States. We use a GARCH-MIDAS approach to keep the datasets in their original frequencies. ...
• Threshold effects of economic-policy uncertainty on food security in Nigeria 

  Aye, Goodness Chioma; Kotur, Lydia N.; Ater, Peter I. (MDPI, 2025-02)

  The study investigated the threshold effects of economic-policy uncertainty on food security in Nigeria, covering the period from 1970 to 2021. Summary statistics and unit root tests were employed for preliminary analysis, ...
• Predicting multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries : the role of oil price uncertainty 

  Van Eyden, Renee; Gupta, Rangan; Sheng, Xin; Nielsen, Joshua (MDPI, 2025-02)

  While there is a large body of literature on oil uncertainty-equity prices and/or returns nexus, an associated important question of how oil market uncertainty affects stock market bubbles remains unanswered. In this ...

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