Abstract:
The paper analysed how climate change (CC) has shaped African agriculture in
the past and how it might impact on African farm economies in the future and
what adaptation strategies African farmers have adopted to cope with these
changes. The analyses covered all key farming systems and agro-climates of
Africa in 11 countries in which data were collected from over 10,000 farm
household surveys. Results provided evidence that African agriculture and
the welfare of its rural population are vulnerable to CC. The highest risk of
future CC damages is associated with specialised crop and livestock farming
(mono systems) particularly under dryland conditions in arid and semi-arid
regions. This indicates how difficult it is to achieve an African green revolution
under the current high reliance on dryland systems (more than 95% of the
land) given predicted harsh future climates (warmer and dryer projections)
for most of the dryland areas in Africa. It will require substantial public and
private investments in expanding irrigation and development of crop varieties
and animal breeds that are tolerant to heat, water and low fertility stresses,
and in building roads and marketing infrastructures that will improve access to critical inputs (e.g., fertiliser) and output trade. This essentially
requires mainstreaming climate sensitivity as an integral component of all
agricultural and broader economic development planning and policy
design. Although the expected damages are large, many farming systems
and communities in Africa face serious limiting conditions which reduce
their ability to adapt and hence increase their vulnerability. Among the key
factors found to constrain African farmers’ ability to adopt effective
adaptation measures are poor access to information, capital, technology
and markets. Policies aimed at promoting farm-level adaptation need to
emphasise the critical role of farmers’ education; provision of improved
climate, production and market information and the means to implement
adaptations through affordable credit facilities. Other needed public interventions
to help promote adaptation measures and reduce vulnerability
include insurance against climate risks to farmers and provision of safety nets.
