Localized Rift Valley fever virus persistence explains epidemic and interepidemic dynamics and guides control strategies

Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging disease with devastating impacts on livestock health and livelihoods. The risk of RVF virus (RVFV) emergence in new regions and the effectiveness of a strategy for preventing establishment are impacted by how infection persists at local scales. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed for its persistence in regions prone to epidemics, including maintenance via transovarial transmission (TOT) but whether and how TOT can support local persistence is not well understood. Through the development of host- and multi-vector climate-driven simulation models to recreate observed patterns of prevalence and outbreak frequency, we show that TOT has the potential to play an important role in local persistence through seasonal cold or dry periods. Local persistence required annual low-level transmission of RVFV concurrently with substantial TOT, whereas the infrequent large outbreaks hampered long-term persistence in our simulations. We show that under this mode of local persistence, large outbreaks can be prevented with low-level vaccination, but that the long-term local persistence can only be interrupted with many years of sustained vaccination. Determining the role of TOT in persistence is critical for designing countermeasures to prevent establishment after emergence.