The impact of past and current district-level climatic shifts on maize production and the implications for South African farmers

dc.contributor.authorMangani, Robert
dc.contributor.authorMazarura, Jocelyn
dc.contributor.authorMatlou, Solly
dc.contributor.authorMarquart, Arnim
dc.contributor.authorArcher, Emma Rosa Mary
dc.contributor.authorCreux, Nicky
dc.contributor.emailnicole.creux@fabi.up.ac.zaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-27T12:26:53Z
dc.date.available2025-03-27T12:26:53Z
dc.date.issued2025-02
dc.descriptionDATA AVAILABILITY : No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.en_US
dc.description.abstractSouth Africa’s climate studies generally focus on coarser provincial levels, which aid policy recommendations, but have limited application at the farm level. District level climate studies are essential for farmer participation in climate change mitigation strategies and management. Our study aimed to investigate historical climate data for trends and their influence on maize yields at the magisterial level. Six sites were selected from three major maize-producing provinces in South Africa: Mpumalanga, Northwest, and Free State. Magisterial districts in each province were selected from different Köppen-Geiger climate zones. The climate variables assessed by the Mann–Kendall trend test included maximum or minimum temperature, rainfall, number of extreme high-temperature days, rainfall onset and cessation from 1986 to 2016. The average maximum temperatures were observed to have significant upward trends in most locations, except for Schweizer-Reneke and Bethlehem. The fastest rate of change was observed at Klerksdorp (0.1 °C per 30 years of study), while the Schweizer-Reneke district was the slowest (0.05 °C per 30 years of study). No significant changes were observed in rainfall onset, cessation, or total rainfall in Schweizer-Reneke, Standerton, and Bethlehem, which are scattered across the different provinces. The other districts in each province showed significant changes in these parameters. Rainfall accounted for the significant variation in maize yields over the study period, explaining between 18 and 40% of the variation in the North West, and between 1 and 17% in the Free State. These findings highlight the importance of understanding location-specific changes at a finer scale, which can help farming communities adjust agronomic practices and adapt to local climate shifts.en_US
dc.description.departmentForestry and Agricultural Biotechnology Institute (FABI)en_US
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_US
dc.description.departmentPlant Production and Soil Scienceen_US
dc.description.departmentStatisticsen_US
dc.description.librarianhj2024en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-02:Zero Hungeren_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-13:Climate actionen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe University of Pretoria for postdoctoral funding, the Technology Innovation Agency (TIA), the South African Department of Science and Innovation (DSI), as well as the Maize Trust under the coordination of GrainSA (Grain South Africa) through the climate resilience consortium. Open access funding provided by University of Pretoria.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://link.springer.com/journal/704en_US
dc.identifier.citationMangani, R., Mazarura, J., Matlou, S. et al. The impact of past and current district-level climatic shifts on maize production and the implications for South African farmers. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 156, 109 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05334-6.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0177-798X (print)
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1007/s00704-024-05334-6
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/101764
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2025. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.en_US
dc.subjectAgroclimatic parametersen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectSeasonal variabilityen_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectHeat stressen_US
dc.subjectCorn yielden_US
dc.subjectSDG-02: Zero hungeren_US
dc.subjectSDG-13: Climate actionen_US
dc.titleThe impact of past and current district-level climatic shifts on maize production and the implications for South African farmersen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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