An analysis of the effects of clouds in high-resolution forecasting of surface shortwave radiation in South Africa

dc.contributor.authorMendes, Joana
dc.contributor.authorZwane, Nosipho
dc.contributor.authorMabasa, Brighton
dc.contributor.authorTazvinga, Henerica
dc.contributor.authorWalter, Karen
dc.contributor.authorMorcrette, Cyril J.
dc.contributor.authorBotai, Joel Ongego
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-24T09:41:21Z
dc.date.available2025-03-24T09:41:21Z
dc.date.issued2024-02
dc.descriptionDATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : All data created or used in this study are available upon request to the South African Weather Service.en_US
dc.description.abstractWe assess site-specific surface shortwave radiation forecasts from two high-resolution configurations of the South African Weather Service numerical weather prediction model, at 4 and 1.5 km. The models exhibit good skill overall in forecasting surface shortwave radiation, with zero median error for all radiation components. This information is relevant to support a growing renewable energy sector in South Africa, particularly for photovoltaics. Further model performance analysis has shown an imbalance between cloud and solar radiation forecasting errors. In addition, cloud overprediction does not necessarily equate to underestimating solar radiation. Overcast cloud regimes are predicted too often with an associated positive mean radiation bias, whereas the relative abundance of partly cloudy regimes is underpredicted by the models with mixed radiation biases. Challenges highlighted by the misrepresentation of partly cloudy regimes in solar radiation error attribution may be used to inform improvements to the numerical core, namely, the cloud and radiation schemes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT : This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of high-resolution site-specific NWP forecasts of surface shortwave radiation in South Africa, exploring clouds as the main drivers of prediction biases. Error attribution analyses of this kind are close to none for this part of the world. Our study contributes to understanding how cloud and radiation schemes perform over South Africa, representing a step forward in the state of the art. In addition to the scientific interest, the capabilities developed through this work may benefit the second largest economy of the continent. In a country where energy security is of critical relevance, the availability of useful and usable weather information is paramount to support its industry and socioeconomic growth.en_US
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_US
dc.description.librarianam2024en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-13:Climate actionen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Met Office Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) South Africa project, which is supported by the Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT). The authors also acknowledge support from the National Research Foundation of South Africa.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/apme-overview.xmlen_US
dc.identifier.citationMendes, J., Zwane, N., Mabasa, B. et al. 2024, 'An analysis of the effects of clouds in high-resolution forecasting of surface shortwave radiation in South Africa', Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 227-244. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0058.1.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1558-8432 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1558-8424 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0058.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/101643
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.rights© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license.en_US
dc.subjectAfricaen_US
dc.subjectShortwave radiationen_US
dc.subjectCloudsen_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectModel evaluation/performanceen_US
dc.subjectSDG-13: Climate actionen_US
dc.titleAn analysis of the effects of clouds in high-resolution forecasting of surface shortwave radiation in South Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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