A Delphi assessment of climate change risks in southern Africa in the 21st century

Abstract

Climate change is acknowledged as one of the greatest environmental and development challenges society faces. Many organisations are now encouraged to conduct assessments of the climate risks they will be exposed to over the next decades. The Global Change Institute (University of Witwatersrand, South Africa) conducted such an assessment for the southern Africa region, to identify some of the main clusters of climate-change related risks. A list of over fifty risks was scored and ranked using a modified-Delphi process; an iterative process of expert-driven risk identification and ranking that was informed from our collective experience and the literature. We focused on the likelihood and consequence in the mid-term (2041–2060) and scored each risk according to this time frame (risk score = [likelihood of event occurring] × [the impact of the event], moderated by the multiple lines of evidence available (Evidence confidence), and the expert rankings of the assessors (Scorer confidence)), using the assumption of the IPCC RCP8.5 climate scenario. The top quartile was organized into five clusters of risk: food insecurity; water shortages; failed energy transition; human heat stress; and risks to nature and the bioeconomy. This paper describes these risk clusters, explored through the lens of available literature, and analysed within the broader framework of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and the individual and collective actions that can be taken to reduce or adapt to these risks. There are many technical solutions to these risks, but these typically are costly and only function up to a point where the risks become unmanageable. For solutions to be successful, a ‘systems view’ and the complex interlinkages between climate change and socio-economic development must be addressed. The interconnected and cross-sectoral nature of the climate risk domains certainly presents a challenge for governance; the success of some of the measures discussed in this paper depends on the existence of strong, well-resourced, well-coordinated and influential governance mechanisms and state institutions and focusing on investigating the many synergies that exist among solutions.