Abstract:
The cause of deaths of 350 elephants in 2020 in a relatively small unprotected area
of northern Botswana is unknown, and may never be known. Media speculations
about it ignore ecological realities. Worse, they make conjectures that can be
detrimental to wildlife and sometimes discredit conservation incentives. A broader
understanding of the ecological and conservation issues speaks to elephant
management across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area
that extends across Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Our communication addresses these. Malicious poisoning and poaching are unlikely
to have played a role. Other species were unaffected, and elephant carcases had
their tusks intact. Restriction of freshwater supplies that force elephants to use pans
as a water source possibly polluted by blue-green algae blooms is a possible cause, but
as yet not supported by evidence. No other species were involved. A contagious
disease is the more probable one. Fences and a deep channel of water confine
these elephants’ dispersal. These factors explain the elephants’ relatively high
population growth rate despite a spell of increased poaching during 2014–2018.
While the deaths represent only ~2% of the area’s elephants, the additive effects
of poaching and stress induced by people protecting their crops cause alarm.
Confinement and relatively high densities probably explain why the die-off occurred
only here. It suggests a re-alignment or removal of fences that restrict elephant
movements and limits year-round access to freshwater.
