The Role of Renewable Energy in the South African Energy Supply Mix and Economy

Abstract

Globally and in most emerging economies such as South Africa, there is an urgent need to attain sustainable development goals as well as honor climate change mitigation commitments. In order to achieve this and to participate in a global transition to clean, low-carbon energy systems, it is imperative for South Africa to focus on its energy transition strategy. In South Africa, the current energy system is mainly reliant on fossil fuel, nuclear and gas energy sources. The high reliance on fossil fuels combined with an old fleet of power plants have intensified the challenges of unsustainability, poor security of supply, as well as unreliability demonstrated in frequent disruptions in the electricity supply. The South African energy supply system is in great need for transformation through the strengthening of cleaner and sustainable energy technologies. This thesis used the international energy supply mix comparison, energy supply mix drivers causality analysis, as well as the energy supply mix system modelling to investigate and propose an optimal energy supply mix which is aligned to the current South African national policy frameworks as well as the strategic targets and plans which enable a sustainable and secure energy transition. The overarching aim of this study was to investigate the role of renewable energy in the South African energy supply mix and economy. To do so, the specific research questions of the study were: 1) How is South Africa’s planned energy supply mix relative to the rest of the world and how has it changed in recent years? ; 2) What is the relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in South Africa?; 3) What is the optimal energy supply mix that is used in South Africa in order to assist with the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies? These questions were addressed through three research papers around which the thesis is structured. The study’s findings advance the EnergyPlan system modelling tool and methodology and its introduction in the South African context. In terms of its energy supply mix (specifically electricity supply mix), South Africa is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels and there is a need for diversification towards a cleaner and sustainable energy supply mix. As a result, it is evident that nonrenewable energy has the most impact on economic growth. There is also a need to increase R&D expenditure and energy technology development. The key contribution of this thesis is the introduction to the South African context an energy supply mix methodology and tool that can be used to accurately determine the maximum contribution of renewable energy into the South African energy supply mix at the least cost and minimum emissions enabling the transition from a fossil fuel dominated mix to one that has more renewable energy. Also providing an evaluation of the role of renewable energies in the future optimal energy supply mix of the country and empirically evaluating and discussing the current Intergrated Resource Plan (IRP) as part of the process. In this regard, identifying the gaps in the current energy mix against likely scenarios based on the current economic climate. As well as better informing the policy makers and key stakeholders in the electricity industry on the role and effect of preferring a renewable -based energy supply mix.